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Trading book(s) - please recommend if you can

  • #61
  • Dec 10, 2019 12:04am Dec 10, 2019 12:04am
Quoting auricforecas
Can I suggest, just for a thought... Maybe you could (anyone) check more "universal" book.. Because some (trading principles) are universal... For example.. Maybe some math-stat, probability... Not some sci level, but practical example... won't favour any, just check for some rather credible author... Or also some trading books that are explaining win-rate vs profitability (I found that this is what many do not get...), or risk-management book 1.1.. Since many do not get (pass) this R:R 1:1... Just my 2b ppl..
That's a good suggestion. Having a solid understanding of statistics, probability, and risk management are very important to succeed at this. If you use a qualitative system, I think having some understanding of epistemology is very useful to avoid making a lot of bad assumptions.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #62
  • Dec 10, 2019 4:49am Dec 10, 2019 4:49am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} Over what period of time? What would you consider a successful pattern? There are obviously traders that trade based on technicals (i.e. charts) that are successful so I'm not sure what you are arguing for or against?
Hey, I know gurangax FF member here, he showed us a TE with 2,000,000% winning rate in few months!
So are you going to show me such examples if I'll ask you if you ever met a successful pattern trader?
That means to grow account consistently trading Forex over the years, not pattern pikers who can stay alive only for a couple of months.
Because in my 7 years of trading I met only liars, quaks, crooked brokers' accomplices, fake gurus...

If TA is so great, why the 95% of retail guys lose???

I try no offence this time, guys, but you're the perfect victims for the aggressive brokers and trading books authors.
Member
  • #63
  • Dec 10, 2019 8:18am Dec 10, 2019 8:18am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hey, I know gurangax FF member here, he showed us a TE with 2,000,000% winning rate in few months! So are you going to show me such examples if I'll ask you if you ever met a successful pattern trader? That means to grow account consistently trading Forex over the years, not pattern pikers who can stay alive only for a couple of months. Because in my 7 years of trading I met only liars, quaks, crooked brokers' accomplices, fake gurus... If TA is so great, why the 95% of retail guys lose??? I try no offence this time, guys,...
If you more carefully understood the 95% statistic you keep quoting, a large majority of that is traders who quit after 1 year. I have not ever met anyone who has become successful in one year, so it would make sense that if you stopped trying after 1 year, you would be deemed as unsuccessful. However, this results in a slightly misleading statistic.

Nonetheless, I'm not sure I understand what you are doing on this forum. Are you simply here to warn folks that they will most likely lose money (or give up prior to becoming profitable)?

To your credit, I have only met one successful, verified technical trader who traded forex (although has since switched to equity indexes due to better volatility).
Small disciplines repeated with consistency lead to great achievements.
  • #64
  • Dec 10, 2019 1:31pm Dec 10, 2019 1:31pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hi, Ray Dalio is an investor, not a trader. Significant difference I'd say. Fundamental analysis works mostly for large investment portfolios, not for the up&down Forex roulette. Forex is random. Stocks grows permanently (sure, some casual recessions, but lifetime overall growing) In investment, if you're stupid strategist, you only need big capital and pacience. Market will get you something somehow if you're patient. In Forex ...you need luck mostly And that makes it a gamble I'd recommend NNTaleb - Fooled By Randomness....

Honesty this is an interesting title, I I'll take a look at book, hopefully it can add some value.
  • #65
  • Dec 10, 2019 6:00pm Dec 10, 2019 6:00pm
Quoting mabooz
{quote} Honesty this is an interesting title, I I'll take a look at book, hopefully it can add some value.
Its a useful book no doubt and I've come to appreciate it more and more as time has gone by. I don't usually recommend the book though due to the author's personality. There are other books that cover the same subject and are more to the point.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #66
  • Dec 11, 2019 12:29am Dec 11, 2019 12:29am
Quoting jmflukeiii
{quote} If you more carefully understood the 95% statistic you keep quoting, a large majority of that is traders who quit after 1 year. I have not ever met anyone who has become successful in one year, so it would make sense that if you stopped trying after 1 year, you would be deemed as unsuccessful. However, this results in a slightly misleading statistic. Nonetheless, I'm not sure I understand what you are doing on this forum. Are you simply here to warn folks that they will most likely lose money (or give up...
I'm actually trying to help. I do that because I see a lot of people unaware of what random really means (in trading).
Member
  • #67
  • Dec 11, 2019 12:29am Dec 11, 2019 12:29am
Quoting Ef5
{quote} Its a useful book no doubt and I've come to appreciate it more and more as time has gone by. I don't usually recommend the book though due to the author's personality. There are other books that cover the same subject and are more to the point.
Very good observation! I use to call NNT a crazy aggressive financial academician!
But his experience with randomness it's the whole point, ...the idea matters.
Member
  • #68
  • Edited 6:21am Dec 11, 2019 5:37am | Edited 6:21am
when I just started testing my "trading templates method" I had achieved those results in just 5 months period... about 50 transaction had been made over this period of time...short-term mostly intraday trades... all were based on patterns only... no indicators, oscillators or other artificial math models had been used... naked charts only... here is an extract from the actual statement ending May, 31, 2002... at the moment this statement was printed I still had an open $100.000.000 long position on the USD/JPY... and, off course, though it's not a classic TA approach as described in the books, nonetheless it's purely technical...

Amount
**** Summary -USD- **** Debit Credit
Balance B/Fwd 12,997,355.75 USD
Net Maturing FX 1,637,842.54 USD
Journal Entry 4,573.14 USD
Balance C/Fwd 14,639,771.45 USD
FOREX Open At Mkt 180,281.69 USD
Equity 14,820,053.14 USD
Deposit Requirement 2,500,000.00- USD
Net Deposit 2,500,000.00- USD
Account Net Value 12,320,053.14 USD
Account Value 14,820,053.14 USD
Month To Date P&L 1,637,842.54 USD
Year To Date P&L 6,420,615.94 USD
  • #69
  • Dec 12, 2019 4:27am Dec 12, 2019 4:27am
I read this book recently , complete turtle trader and i have to say i really liked this book as its very motivating to see an ordinary person turn into a millionaire just by following some simple rules. You can check it out too.
  • #70
  • Dec 14, 2019 9:48pm Dec 14, 2019 9:48pm
Quoting Igrok
when I just started testing my "trading templates method" I had achieved those results in just 5 months period... about 50 transaction had been made over this period of time...short-term mostly intraday trades... all were based on patterns only... no indicators, oscillators or other artificial math models had been used... naked charts only... here is an extract from the actual statement ending May, 31, 2002... at the moment this statement was printed I still had an open $100.000.000 long position on the USD/JPY... and, off course, though it's not...
Beware. This individual has something to sell.
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Freedom is not free
  • #71
  • Edited 11:41pm Dec 14, 2019 10:58pm | Edited 11:41pm
The word random is not in my vocabulary when thinking of price action. I think that if you want to talk about "it", you must be very careful. Google may be your friend.

It is accepted that PA is white noise. It is also pink noise. Generally accepted that it follows a Weiner process. This is what allows markets to be fractal - a daily chart may look very similar to a weekly chart if you don't look at the time scale.

You can generate charts using these processes in Excel. You will nevertheless see trends, retracements, accumulation and distribution and even things that look like Elliott waves.

Then you may study H.E. Hurst and the work he did investigating whether a process such as this may have memory. Fine minds have been devoted to this quite legitimate phenomenon.

Or you may simply wish to employ a mathematical technique such as the choppiness index to determine whether the market is one in which you may wish to trade.

Yes, trends even happen in a casino. Stay in one for a 10 hours and take notes of all red and black as they happen each time. Make red 1, black -1. Go home, and plot it.

{edit, yes, I know this thread is about books. There are thousands of them. No one will provide any real answers, as most are predicated on certain unsaid assumptions. I have yet to find one that begins with the most obvious, that financial price action is by itself non-stationary. When you finish one, start on the next.}
  • #72
  • Edited 3:13am Dec 15, 2019 1:09am | Edited 3:13am
Quoting Abe16
{quote} Beware. This individual has something to sell. {image}{image}{image}
what a freaking idiot you're I've been in this business since forever... at least long before the very first on-line trading platform was introduced to the retail market or you yourself heard about Forex for the fist time... years before the very first book about Forex went out of print... my own Forex book, that you're advertising now, was published way back in 2006 in three languages and used to be a bestseller... my book in English was published by Wiley - the oldest and the most reputable financial publisher in the US... the Japanese version of it was published by Pan Rolling in the "Wizards" series... it's already sold in tens of thousands of copies and I have kept a special thread on this very forum specifically dedicated to it and my method since then... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21887...

you've never heard of me before just because you're a dumb novice and apparently learned how to read just recently ... quite soon you also will be gone with the wind as it had happened to the generations of those FF participants that came and went before my eyes over those long years cause they couldn't survive... thanks a lot for a free add, pal... God save your stupid soul in the garbage can... amen...
  • #73
  • Dec 15, 2019 10:27am Dec 15, 2019 10:27am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} what a freaking idiot you're I've been in this business since forever... at least long before the very first on-line trading platform was introduced to the retail market or you yourself heard about Forex for the fist time... years before the very first book about Forex went out of print... my own Forex book, that you're advertising now, was published way back in 2006 in three languages and used to be a bestseller... my book in English was published by Wiley - the oldest and the most reputable financial...
I question your credibility completely. You say you've been a fund manager since 1993. What fund are you currently managing? The one fund you did manage is now defunct and it's web address has been removed. What are your credentials? Are you certified? Series, 3, 7, 65? Are you licensed by FINRA. Are you registered with SEC. Any professional certifications like that of a Chartered Financial Analyst. What education do you have? MBA, finance, economics or similar?
Do you actually trade and if so can you show evidence of that? Maybe even put a few charts with some trades, demo or live? Doesn't matter. Any Tom, Dick or Harry can write a FOREX book and many already have. Funny thing is most of them can't trade to save their lives.

You make wild predictions of a market collapse out of thin air based on nothing more than a diamond formation and have a cult following based on this ridiculousness. Just such a prediction IMHO nullifies any credibility you may have had. What professional fund manager would have a thread at FF with the title "The Collapse of the US Stock Market". What poor soul would invest their hard-earned money with such an individual making such outlandish predictions.
I will say like a soap opera it's kind of a sick sort of thing watching idiots like you.
Freedom is not free
  • #74
  • Dec 15, 2019 10:46am Dec 15, 2019 10:46am
Quoting Abe16
{quote} I question your credibility completely.
you seem to be a complete moron indeed...
- first of all, who the heck are you to demand anything from me or any other person in here on FF?...
- second, don't I have the same right to participate and to express my personal opinion freely as everyone else on this forum ?...
- third, do I somehow force anyone, including your stupid self, to read my books, my articles or my posts here or anywhere else?...
- fourth, can you provide any hard evidence (technical, fundamental, historical or any other) proving beyond reasonable doubt that the market will never ever be able to do what I'm expecting it to do in the future?...

if you answer those simple questions to my own satisfaction then, perhaps, I will also satisfy your curiosity... at least partially...
  • #75
  • Dec 15, 2019 11:19am Dec 15, 2019 11:19am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} you seem to be a complete moron indeed... - first of all, who the heck are you to demand anything from me or any other person in here on FF?... - second, don't I have the same right to participate and to express my personal opinion freely as everyone else on this forum ?... - third, do I somehow force anyone, including your stupid self, to read my books, my articles or my posts here or anywhere else?... - fourth, can you provide any hard evidence (technical, fundamental, historical or any other) proving beyond reasonable doubt that the market...
Hi Igrok

A bit off the topic...

I spent countless hours and multitudes of spreadsheets and god knows so many models of wheel combos that were supposed to be efficient but at the end, the odds of winning lotto 6/49 (my main focus) was pretty consistent with the stated odds by the lotto issuer.

I haven't read your book but it'd be interesting how you think it is possible to beat the odds in lotto but kudos if you have found a way.
  • #76
  • Edited 12:25pm Dec 15, 2019 11:46am | Edited 12:25pm
I think that it is very fair to question a persons credibility should they make a claim about it. That is well established in Evidence Law, as well as what is normal for a functioning society.

Where I live there is currently a book about Aboriginals. The author claims Aboriginal heritage as a selling point. Upon investigation, none exists. Similar to Elizabeth Warren claiming to be of Indian heritage to advantage her stance. All credibility lost.

Publishers publish books on how to win a lottery for one reason. There are people out there who will buy it. Easy - the publishers motives are transparent, and they will move on and continue publishing. Some will win and say the book helped them.

That reasoning is the same that people use to say that it is because of taking certain precautions, nothing happened - when nothing would have happened in the absence of those precautions, anyway. Whilst I never lock my door and never get robbed because I live on an otherwise uninhabited island, one time I did lock the door, an lo, I didn't get robbed. Hallelujah.

There are plenty of ways to irreversibly damage one's claims to credibility. This does not preclude them from participating, but free speech allows us to question anything. Take away that freedom to question (including questioning accepted wisdom) and well, you may be living somewhere where that freedom is not a very honoured right.
  • #77
  • Dec 15, 2019 11:49am Dec 15, 2019 11:49am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Hi Igrok A bit off the topic... I spent countless hours and multitudes of spreadsheets and god knows so many models of wheel combos that were supposed to be efficient but at the end, the odds of winning lotto 6/49 (my main focus) was pretty consistent with the stated odds by the lotto issuer. I haven't read your book but it'd be interesting how you think it is possible to beat the odds in lotto but kudos if you have found a way.
I explained it in the book... not any lotto you can crack this way... the one I had been playing is based on some sort of computerized algorithm which is a Pseudo Random Generator... the key word in it is Pseudo...it means that the program is only mimicking normal mathematical probabilities including Statistical Density Distribution... it also means that such lotteries theoretically can be figured out by the way of reversed engineering process... in this particular case I didn't go that far though... I just analysed its historical data and noticed a serious deviation from normal SDD and then made a perception that the lottery computer is about to correct itself in order to align the actual data results with the theory... so, it worked out pretty well... unfortunately I had to share that juicy $310K jackpot with some other lucky winner...
  • #78
  • Dec 15, 2019 11:59am Dec 15, 2019 11:59am
Quoting Igrok
{quote} I explained it in the book... not any lotto you can crack this way... the one I had been playing is based on some sort of computerized algorithm which is a Pseudo Random Generator... the key word in it is Pseudo...it means that the program is only mimicking normal mathematical probabilities including Statistical Density Distribution... it also means that such lotteries theoretically can be figured out by the way of reversed engineering process... in this particular case I didn't go that far though... I just noticed a serious deviation from...
Ok, so you found a niche inconsistency in a particular lotto and exploited it. I have read instances of lotto corps making huge mistakes and consequently being exploited for them. As a result, they usually lost credibility and corrected their mistakes or even ceased to exist. Maybe a 'How to spot mistakes in lotto administration' should be a better book title. lol
  • #79
  • Dec 15, 2019 12:04pm Dec 15, 2019 12:04pm
I haven't read this whole thread and this book may have already been mentioned. It is the only book I suggest you read. I have misplaced mine but my god, it is an eye opener and nothing but the truth in it. I gotta go buy it again. I miss the light bulb turning on in my brain effect that it gave me: https://www.amazon.ca/Misbehavior-Ma.../dp/B004PYDBEO
  • #80
  • Dec 15, 2019 12:05pm Dec 15, 2019 12:05pm
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Ok, so you found a niche inconsistency in a particular lotto and exploited it. I have read instances of lotto corps making huge mistakes and consequently being exploited for them. As a result, they usually lost credibility and corrected their mistakes or even ceased to exist. Maybe a 'How to spot mistakes in lotto administration' should be a better book title. lol
yes and no... first of all, each and any computer generated lottery will have that inconsistency... no matter what it will follow some artificial algorithm... second, statistical density distribution, which has been figured out long time ago by such great mathematicians of the past as Gauss and Laplace would still be helpful even with a mechanical lottery system... it's just a bit more complicated... long time ago I studied Game Theory at a special math high school and then in the university and such a knowledge was quite helpful indeed...the key to success is to have enough uninterrupted historical data to analyze... in that particular lottery there was plenty of it...
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