Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

MNQ short last lot of 4 lot
T1 +10/11p 3 lot
1 left/SL BE
Last closed BE.

Gold long last lot (bounced off the DPP/Wk POC)
T1 +27<>30p 3 lot
1 left SL BE.
Target 3370<>75

Closed my last lot MGC +155p close to DR1 3374/75 zone

RS at DR1 3374/75 and little higher WR1 3378 zone

Trump’s tariffs would cost U.S. employers $82.3 billion, potentially causing price hikes and layoffs

An analysis finds a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could potentially be managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins.

The analysis by the JPMorganChase Institute is among the first to measure the direct costs created by the import taxes on businesses with $10 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, a category including roughly a third of private-sector U.S. workers. These companies are more dependent than other businesses on imports from China, India and Thailand — and the retail and wholesale sectors would be especially vulnerable to the import taxes being levied by the Republican president.

The findings show clear trade-offs from Trump’s import taxes, contradicting his claims foreign manufacturers would absorb the costs of the tariffs instead of U.S. companies that rely on imports. While the tariffs launched under Trump have yet to boost overall inflation, large companies such as Amazon, Costco, Walmart and Williams-Sonoma delayed the potential reckoning by building up their inventories before the taxes could be imposed.

There’s a growing body of evidence suggesting more inflation could surface. The investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a report it expects companies to pass 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers.

Trump has set a Friday deadline for passage of the multitrillion-dollar package, the costs of which the president hopes to offset with tariff revenues.

Trump said simply: “Everything’s going well.”

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy...es-and-layoffs

Copied from an other trader:

Since 2016 US Government spending has risen YoY breaching 7 trillion in 2020.
2016: Around $3.853 trillion.
2017: Around $4 trillion.
2018: Around $4.172 trillion.
2019: Around $4.45 trillion.
2020: $7.71 trillion (Pandemic)
2021: $7.77 trillion
2022: $6.73 trillion
2023: $6.16 trillion
2024: $6.75 trillion
2025 (through June): $4.85 trillion
$7+ Trillion every year for the next 10 years under The BBB. Perspective.

Markets keep moving to old and maybe new ATHs, same as the US debt is going to new ATHs

Financial markets took in stride signs of malaise in the US labor market. Wall Street is on pace to finish the day in the black, with the bellwether S&P 500 index probing its highs for the year. ADP Inc reported that its gauge of private payrolls showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June. That marks the first negative reading since March 2023.

This data precedes official employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls rose by just 110,000 last month, amounting to the smallest increase since October 2024. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021.

MNQ short 22.856.25 last 2 lot
T2 +20p
1 left/SL BE
Last lot closed BE

ES short 6276.75 1 lot
Closed +3p

Still inside the ETH OR zone, waiting for US data release.

GOLD dropped to WPP 3320 zone

Up target to 3345 MPP<>3350 Wk POC
Down target 3300<>3290 last Wk Fridays close

SnP & NQ at ATHs

Gold Long last lot from 3329
T1 +45p 2 lot
T2 +74/75p 1 lot
1 left SL BE and trailing up

Closed +114/115p at DS1/Wk VWAP zone.

Once above maybe long again to MPP 3345 zone.
Gold could try to reach 3350/51 Wk POC//M VWAP/50% zone of the previous Power Sell bar, but MPP target first

Long again above DS1.
T1 +29/30p 3 lot
1 left for 3350 zone (maybe)
SL BE

Gold still bullish even after the 45/50p news drop

3th ES entry Tdy

ES closed +5.75p

Last MES lot long

Closed +15p at 6300 zone

New ATHs SnP & NQ.

No time to try any (kind of) short now.

Markets close earlier, so not much to do now anymore then let it ride out.

The US Congress has passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term.

Summary

Today, the US Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that is supposed to include all Trump’s promises on fiscal policy in his second term. The bill includes tax cuts and additional spending on Republican priorities.

The bill will extend the income tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which were set to expire by the end of the year and would have caused a fiscal cliff. There will be tax deductions for taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security. The bill includes additional spending on defense and immigration enforcement.

 To finance the tax cuts and additional spending, or at least some of it, there are tax increases for and spending cuts in Democratic priorities. The tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles from Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act will be terminated. What’s more, new taxes on wind and solar energy projects will be imposed if they use too much foreign content. Federal spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will be reduced and the slack should be picked up by the states. There will also be cuts in spending on Medicaid, the health care program for low-income people. Finally, at the request of Trump, and much to the dismay of the fiscal hawks, the debt limit will be raised.

 On balance, budget deficits are projected to rise by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. However, the bill front-loads tax cuts and delays spending cuts, causing a fiscal cliff at the end of 2028 that will create political pressure in 2028 to extend the tax cuts and kick the spending cuts further down the road. Therefore, the upward impact on budget deficits in the next 10 years could be even larger.

 Despite the large rise in the budget deficit, the upward impact on the growth trajectory of the US economy is likely to be limited. A large part of what the Republicans and their proxies are trying to sell as “tax cuts” are actually extensions of the TCJA, which have been widely anticipated.

 Meanwhile, the increase in defense spending is relatively modest and keeps it below what other NATO members have pledged (as percentage of GDP). Despite all the talk about Trump’s “grand strategy”, this means that US foreign policy ambitions will be severely limited in the coming decade: a victory for the isolationists.

 The One Big Beautiful Budget Act of 2025 underlines that two traditional wings of the Republican Party, the fiscal hawks and the foreign policy hawks, have been pushed aside by the MAGA movement

This is truly One Big Beautiful Magic Act. As Lindsay Graham put it last week: “I’m the king of the numbers, I’m Zeus, the budget king.” With a simple shift-in-accounting trick1 , $3.8 trillion has disappeared into a black hole of time inconsistency. In the same letter on July 1, the nonpartisan CBO stated that compared with their January 2025 baseline budget projections, it would increase deficits over the 2025-2034 period by $3.4 trillion. So in reality, the OBBBA has a significant upward impact on the budget deficit

What’s more, the bill front-loads tax cuts in the next few years and delays spending cuts, causing a rise in the budget deficit in the short run and political pressure down the road to extend the tax cuts, further increasing annual budget deficits. Many deficit-increasing measures are scheduled to expire in 2028, while many deficit-reducing measures do not start until after 2028. This would create a large fiscal cliff in 2028.

In fact, the One Big Beautiful Bill is removing the fiscal cliff that loomed at the end of this year. What’s more, the extension has been widely anticipated because the Republicans could not afford the fiscal cliff from an electoral perspective.

No serious attempt has been made to improve the US public debt trajectory. Fiscal discipline has gone out of the window on Capitol Hill and the few remaining fiscal hawks are at best slowing down the upward trajectory of the debt.

Either through higher interest rates or through higher tax rates if US lawmakers are going to put their fiscal house in order, this budget explosion could slow down economic growth down the road. However for now, the low tax rates of the TCJA have been extended and some new tax cuts have been added.

Just stop thinking about tomorrow

Conclusion In the end, this bill is essentially about extending the Trump tax cuts of 2017 and adding some new tax cuts promised during the presidential campaign of 2024. Despite spending cuts on clean energy programs and health care for low income Americans, the fiscal hawks saw their wings clipped again and the US public debt continues to rise.

However, the foreign policy hawks are in for some big disappointments as well. They may be basking in the glory of the attack on Iran, but there is no budget for their future ambitions. The “One Big Beautiful Bill” underlines that these two traditional wings of the Republican Party, the fiscal hawks and the foreign policy hawks, have been pushed aside by the MAGA movement.

Gold long 3340.4 last 2 lot.
T1 +32p 2 lot.
2 Left. SL BE zone
1 Lot closed +25p
1 Left

Still in sideays teritory

Last lot closed BE

Gold becomes a little heavier.
Once below 3320 zone more sell MM to 3300 BRN likely

Buy options above 3350 zone again.

Between 3350<>3320 just scalping

Gold short last lot
T1 +30<>35p 2 lot
T2 +80p 1 lot
1 left

Target 3315>>3300 zone

MGC short again last lot from 3324.7
T1 +45<>50p 3 lot.
1 left SL BE
Gold closed at 3315

GOLD closed at DPP 3344.5 (192<>195p last 2 lot)

Down to 3300 zone?
3 Lot closed at 3305 (@ Yest low zone)
1 left SL at 3310 3305

Last lot closed @ 3305

Likely a lot of SP here/no time to reverse (yet)