Swing Trades DAX/DOW/NQ/GOLD

Dutchy D. where are you?
Come home please!

yea..been some time now..everything ok??

Hi Guys (&Girls)

I feel myself as the markets behave now. Not in the mood to move.
I have an infection in the front of my head. Like flue but no real flue.
I don't know the English name. (for sinusitis???)
Feels as if my head is in a box.

Anyway markets are very sideways for several Days.

Never ending Brexit/Trade war saga.
Trumps phone seems confiscated. No market moving Tweets.
Q3 earnings so so as expected.

Today is one of the baddest trading Days as I can remember.

Waiting for better Days.
China>US talks Tomorrow.
FED next Week.

DOW price between my Swing MA lines for many Days already. No adventure here. Needs a break out
above 26.900 but 27K in the way. Tested several times.
below 26.650/600
Between nothing but trouble

You can see on the Weekly TPOs of last & this Week TPOs how narrow the ranges are.
This Week 600<>900. A HUGE TPO peak @ 750 zone. Is nothing worth!

Take care & stay green (which is difficult these days)

I'll be back. (maybe )

DAX needs a nervous break down to 12.400<>12.250 to fill a W TPO GAP. But still very Bullish

Knocking on the 13K as the DOW knocks every time on the 27K.

Serious Short below the 12.600 (last Week POC zone) for 350<>200 target. For example No Deal Brexit.

In case of good news the DAX & DOW will cross the BRNs. 13K & 27K

Word snel beter!

Good to se you back Aramis, hope you will recover and get fitt to fight.
Best regards d´Artagnan.

Happy to hear you here again!
All the best for you and I hope your head will leave the box (as you wrote) very soon!

U.S. GDP

1. Date: Wednesday, October 30, 7:30 AM CT
2. Expected Number: 1.8%
3. Expected Range: 1.3% to 2.3%

The GDP number that drops Wednesday morning is no revision. This is fresh data that will almost certainly move markets—especially given its impact on the Fed rate decision scheduled for later that afternoon.

Presumably, a result in the middle-to-lower end of the expected range will provide the Fed with the ammo it needs to further cut interest rates—even in the face of record stock prices and the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. On the other hand, a surprise to the upside could make things very interesting.
If GDP comes in above 2%, it will likely decrease the probability of a rate cut later that day or in the months to come.


Federal Reserve Meeting

1. Date: Wednesday, October 30, 1:00 PM CT
2. Expected Outcome: 0.25% cut to Fed Funds Rate
3. Watch Out For: Changes to forward guidance, dissenting vote

Equities, commodities, metals and (obviously) bonds are waiting for this number before embarking on their next big move.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is somewhere between a 90% and 95% probability that the Fed cuts interest rates for a third time this year.
Bottom line, it will be a major surprise if rates hold steady, since a quarter-percent cut is basically already priced into the markets.


Non-Farm Payrolls

1. Date: Friday, November 1, 7:30 AM CT
2. Expected Number: +105K
3. Expected Range: Still trickling in...

A 105K print represents the continuation of a downward trend that has persisted for almost a year. Which seems bad, right? But then again, with a 3.5% unemployment rate, are there really that many more jobs to add?
The U.S. needs to add roughly 100,000 jobs-per-month just to keep pace with population increases.



A good number, or bad number, could be good or bad for, say, equities. It's hard to know because bad economic data may be bad for the economy, but counter-intuitively a bad number may also be good for equities since this scenario increases the probability of future interest rate cuts.

https://blog.topsteptrader.com/3-hug...pipe-this-week

DOW Futures chart & CFD chart

Up targets Futures:
27.300/+1.0%
27.450/+2.0%

Down targets:
26.800/-0.25%
26.750/-0.5%
26.650/-1.0%

DOW in a Long CFD Swing trade from Friday @ 26.900. Broke out my Swing MA lines.
Current CFD price @ 27K (CFD price +/- 50p higher then Future price)
T1 +100p @ +0.25%
2 runners left/SL BE

(Current Future price @ 26.950 +0.25%)

DOW Futures Long @ 26.954
T1 +15p 2 lot
SL BE last 2 lots
1 lot closed +12p
1 runner/SL BE
FLAT BE last lot/ 27K Res level

Price above my Ichi cloud/Swing MA lines/EMA lines

DOW just below 27K @ +0.25%

DAX hit the +0.25%/12.920 as well.
Waiting for the DOW to cross the 27K?

DAX Long @ 896
T1 +11p 2 lot
2 runners/SL -10p
T2 +16/17p 1 lot
1 runner/SL BE now
+15p locked in
+30p locked in
FLAT +30p last lot


920/+0.25% is Res level now.
Next trgt 950/960/+0.5%

DAX is waiting @ 0%/900 zone

If it drops to -0.5%/800>825 I will be a buyer
Poss buyer above +0.25% with DOW support

Break till EU lunch time.

Alerts & Orders set

As the wise man Brixen said: At the end trading is only the art of waiting!

Patience is all that matters!

DAX Long Futures @ 915 above RTH & ETH POC. Above +0.25% now. Trgy 950>960/+0.5%
T1 +11p
T2 +20p 1 lot
1 runner/SL BE
+0.5%/950 HIT. +30p locked in
FLAT +30p last lot @ +0.5%

DOW likely will see the 27K again. US opens 14:30 EU time. Winter Time here

DOW still around the 27K (Futures) (CFD price 27.045)

Last Friday it broke out the Ichi cloud & crossed my Swing MA lines. Bullish (again)

The Ichimokou Chikou line is not plotted on my charts. It's a lagging price line with an X number bars lagging from the current price. I use only an alert on the top of my 40/50 Renko charts (Red or Green alert) when the Chikou line is crossing the Yellow Kijun line up or down.

2 Screen shots.

1 with the blue Chikou line


2 without the blue Chikou line (just a little blue piece visible)



I use the Chikou line as a possible SL for trades when the blue Chikou line crosses the yellow Kijun line again in the opposite direction of my trade.
&
I also use the Chikou line often for an aggresive Market trade when the blue Chikou line crosses the yellow Kijun line.
So when the blue Chikou line crosses the yellow Kijun line to the upside I often take a Long market trade and vise versa.

When the price also breaks out of the cloud & above my Swing MA line (as it did last Friday), its a confirmation for me that I'm likely on the right track.

DOW CFD +100p locked in last 2 lots & trailing up slowly......
1 lot +200p +250p locked in
1 lot +100p locked in

US data still good. They price in a poss. rate cut.