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1. Oil prices edged higher as investors weighed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran talks.
2. U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that it had defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles.
3. CENTCOM also said it had launched defensive strikes against Iran.
4. Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that Washington was engaged in talks with Iran.
5. Iran’s Fars news agency on Tuesday said Tehran and Washington had not exchanged messages for several days.

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1. At least 8 separate times Trump told a deal was done, close, or coming “next week.” Eight.
2. At least 6 hard deadlines set and then quietly pissed away: 48 hours became five days became ten days became “Tuesday” became a ceasefire that’s been “nearly finalised” since April.
3. The strait has been shut since the 28th of February. That’s not a negotiating position. That’s the result.
4. Brent went from about 75 bucks to north, the highest price since 2008, while he workshopped his next Truth Social post.

1. 17 Feb. Iran: Khamenei rejects Trump’s terms; says the US Navy “can be sunk.” Wikipedia
2. 20 Feb. Trump: claims a 10-day “deal or we attack” deadline. Iran: oil minister floats selling oil to the US if a deal lands. Wikipedia
3. 25 Feb. Iran: Araghchi says a deal is “within reach.” Wikipedia
4. 28 Feb. Trump: announces “major combat operations in Iran.” Khamenei killed. War on. CRS report

The shutdown + the price shock

1. 8-9 Mar. Iran chokes the strait; Brent rockets toward $120, then dated Brent past $140. Trump: predicts the war ends “very soon.” TradingEconomics · mexc
2. ~9-10 Mar. Trump: “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” if oil flow is stopped, plus “Death, Fire, and Fury”; later tells CBS the war is “very complete” and oil eases. Yahoo
3. 16 Mar. Trump: begs a coalition (China, Japan, France, UK) to escort ships; warns NATO of a “very bad” future. World: muted. Japan and Australia both say no ships. Al Jazeera
4. 21-22 Mar. Trump (Truth Social): 48 hours to FULLY OPEN or the US obliterates power plants, biggest one first. Iran: Ghalibaf rebuffs and counter-threatens; Tehran warns even buyers of US Treasuries could be “legitimate targets.” mexc · TradingEconomics
5. 26 Mar. Trump: extends the deadline 10 days, insists talks are “going very well” and he’s not desperate; Witkoff confirms a 15-point list went to Tehran via Pakistan. Euronews · NPR
6. 2 Apr. Trump (speech): no plan to open the strait; says “We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it and we don’t need it.” Oil tops $110; analyst calls the speech “a disaster.” CNBC
7. 5 Apr. Trump (Truth Social): “Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!” Read as a third deadline punt; critics break out TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). mexc
8. 6 Apr. Trump: threatens power plants and bridges, but says there’s a “good chance” of a deal. Iran: rejects the ultimatum, won’t talk under pressure. News On Air

The “ceasefire” that never opened the lane

1. 7 Apr (~6:32pm ET). Trump: after warning a “whole civilization will die tonight,” announces a 2-week ceasefire conditioned on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of Hormuz. Iran: Araghchi agrees if attacks stop, with passage “via coordination” subject to technical limits. Al Jazeera · Fox
2. 8 Apr. Trump admin: Hegseth says the strait is now open and commerce will flow. Same morning, White House: Leavitt calls any closure “completely unacceptable.” (Both. Same day. Strait shut.) News On Air · Euronews
3. 10 Apr. Trump: Iran’s doing a “very poor job”; “not the agreement we have.” Iran: IRGC reportedly charging tolls; Ghalibaf says no talks till Lebanon ceasefire. Fox live
4. 13 Apr. Trump: US launches a counter-blockade, hitting ships bound for Iranian ports. Commons Library
5. 21-22 Apr. Trump: unilaterally extends the ceasefire; strait stays shut. Iran: Ghalibaf says reopening is “impossible” while the blockade stands. CNBC

May: the “basically done” remix

1. 5-6 May. Trump: pauses guiding stranded ships “to finalize a deal,” keeps the blockade. Lloyd’s: no transits since 4 May. NPR · CBS
2. 7 May. Trump: lift the blockade and the strait would be “OPEN TO ALL, including Iran.” Iran: Rezaei demands the US pay reparations first. CNBC
3. 11 May. Trump: rejects Iran’s counteroffer: “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Iran: vows to “never bow.” CNBC
4. 12 May. Trump: calls the ceasefire “unbelievably weak” and Iran’s ideas garbage; Aramco warns of a 2027 recovery. CNBC
5. 15 May. Trump (after the Xi summit): “I am not going to be much more patient.” Brent +3% to ~$109. CNBC
6. 23 May. Trump: a deal is “largely negotiated,” announced shortly: MOU first, then 30-60 days. Iran: negotiator says no compromise on “legitimate rights.” CNBC
7. 25 May. Trump: says he’s lifting the blockade for no tolls + access to nuclear sites + Iran’s uranium; had just threatened to “blow up” Oman over a fee system. Iran: denies any negotiations are even happening. Middle East Eye
8. 29 May. Trump: leaves the Situation Room with no “final determination”; demands Iran never get a nuke and the strait open now. Iran: Fars says the post contradicts the agreement’s text. CNBC

1 Jun: five moods, one day

1. 1 Jun (morning). Iran: Tasnim says Tehran is suspending talks and the exchange of documents over Israel’s Lebanon strikes, which it calls a ceasefire violation; vows a complete blockade of Hormuz and activation of the Bab el-Mandeb. The IRGC warns any ship transiting with help from “hostile extra-regional forces” will be treated as “an imminent security threat.” CBS · Yahoo/Bloomberg
2. 1 Jun. Trump (ABC): a deal to extend the ceasefire and reopen Hormuz is reachable “over the next week,” with “a few more points” still to settle; claims Iran hadn’t told the US it was walking. CNN
3. 1 Jun. Trump (interview): says he “couldn’t care less” if the talks collapse. TIME
4. 1 Jun 3:02pm. Trump (Truth Social): “Iran really wants to make a deal.” Blames the “Dumocrats” and “unpatriotic Republicans” for chirping at him to move faster or slower or go to war or not; tells everyone to “sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end - It always does!” [Truth Social screenshot, timestamped]
5. 1 Jun (evening). Trump (Truth Social): about-face hours after Iran walked, posts “talks are continuing, at a rapid pace.” Bloomberg/Yahoo

2 Jun (today): demand a white flag

1. 2 Jun 11:29am. Trump (Truth Social): roughly 20 hours after “rapid pace,” demands total Iranian capitulation: navy “resting at the bottom of the sea,” the military marching out of Tehran with hands up “shouting ‘I surrender, I surrender’” while waving the white flag, leadership signing “Documents of Surrender.” Rounds on the “Dumacrats” and “Fake News Media” for going “absolutely CRAZY.” [Truth Social screenshot, timestamped]

In a single day he managed “we’ve got a deal,” “couldn’t care less,” “sit back and relax,” and “rapid pace,” then woke up the next morning and demanded an entire nation crawl out of Tehran with its hands in the air.

This list is not finished. It will never be finished, because the dropkick is constitutionally incapable of shutting his gob for longer than it takes to contradict himself.