(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

Hi, Janpec,

there's some doubts on my mind on this Europe-italy drama.

first of all, the italy's debt is much bigger than greece, what if ECB is "unable" to bail it out? German & French voters might jump crazy against bail it out idea.

secondly, on the other hand, italy folks seem not only trying to escape from paying-off their debts, but also try to come up with a solution to reverse the long term failing italy economy. from their angle, they sincerely hope to have a new currency.

we all know that a new currency would be a start of EURO's doom. this time, italian might not care....... but just some guessing anyway.

btw, what's best cryptocurrency to invest in your eyes? do you trade them or HODL them? I think BCH is best/most valuable since it is essentially the bitcoin sticking to the white paper, and never hacked before. I would love to see more of your insights on cryptocurrency.

thanks as always!

Hey charvo, ECB is institution besides the FED that has theoretically unlimited fire power, while there are general factors to consider such as M2 money supply at which ECB is limited in how much cash or "fuel" can it push directly to economy, on the derivates market side ECB can do pretty much anything, same as BOJ, if they want to start buying cross EU equities and adding into QE balance expansion they can, if they want to add 10 times increase of current junk bonds from nearly bankrupt C quality EU companies they can, Italys debt is by no means an mean to end for ECB, however the thing is that its not really the current size of debt and where it is parked that matters so much, its about the current avalible bonds that are out in market not yet bought out, as those are actually whats making the problems on (and adding to that all the naked shorts which ECB cannot really go against), basically ECB is facing same problem that BOJ is which is that BOJ has bought up up to every single penny of avalible open market bonds until there was nothing else to buy, and after that there is not much central bank can really do to further help the yields or economy.
That means that if Italy really was to stray away from EU or EZ then question would be what would ECB have in its arsenal to keep situation from getting worse, and to think that in short term that they would buy up everything for Italy on open markets while Italy is pushing for referendum on EU or thinking of paralel currency would be almost impossible to expect as that would send really weak message to all global markets, so my guess would be that ECB / Troika would take a aggressive stance first, in order to then later be able to put a soft stance and start the buy back with QE addon later, i dont see how could that go any other way, although it completly depends how Italian drama develops.
Mind that for now there are many many factors yet that are too early to tell. As you can see Troika can swiftly place any man they need to start pushing agenda into their own way (quickly placing new prime minister technocrat from IMF, which has been done many times before) in order to ensure that game starts to be played on the rules of Troika, so dont ever think that its ECB thats cornered in this situation, if anyone is its Italy (no matter that it is 100% true, that they need debt restructuring and some minor version of parallel currency).

Mind that markets are like nature, this isnt game played by rules of morals or absolute needs, its strenght and the strategy that does it all. Just because from many points of view Italy really needs what has been so far presented in their program, it doesnt mean thats where the reality will shape at all, as their strategic approach is way too agressive (for being weaker sided player) and their yields are cornering them (the more they push the worse it gets), and at the end if ECB or Troika wants to play doom card, they can (altough unlikely, but in Greece they went very far so never underestimate it).

Mind that Italy does and should care. But as i pointed out, if correct set of politicans are elected that are ready to neglect reality then yes somethimes you do get politicans that dont care, and the results can be devastating. Re-denominating Italian debt while putting back lira into play would spin the yields out of control and the markets would sat on lira without a breather, it would be inflationary distaster, it would be far worse than it is now. The only sector that would gain advantage of it however it might be turism.



As for cryptos i mainly hold, ill write more about cryptos in future, there is a LOT to go trough to really get any solid point on cryptos across.
My holdings currently are: Wepower token, Referum token, Decred coin, Ethereum, Genesis vision.
As for BCH, i do not invest in cryptos from ideological views, i couldnt care less what original white paper said , all i care is that currency solves problems, is usefull, has market demand and has solid technology with future possibilities. I dont see particular reason why not to invest in BCH nor BTC (have been in BTC since 2011, but liquidated all in 2015), both solid go, but in my views there are better projects to focus out there.
I do very much enjoy listening to debates between Roger and whatever the counterpart representing BTC views are, because its a pure example of really strong game theory where its nearly impossible to really side with any of sides, since nearly all points are game theoretical side specific. Far more enjoable to listen to than any political debates which are usually just plain boring and shallow.

USDTRY placing soft bullish rectangle as bound expected range of where TRY is likely to stay in next 3 weeks as the time closes near elections, likely impacting TRY on bearish side and limiting the downside of USDTRY (upside capped by rate hike week ago). Thus looking for bull plays on M5/M15 if they emerge, its a soft target meaning that there could be many swipes up and down and its not clear directional path.

The government is being disposed of at this very moment and will be substituted by a conglomerate of all extremists you can posibly imagine. This WILL lead to new deficits, debt and capital & companies fleeing out of Spain. Spain will not (be able to) comply with expenditure and debt ceiling imposed by the EC and is about to turn into the EC's biggest problem ever!

Confirmed...

Already 2000 points up on my Ibex short, lol.

EUR down trend behaviour change. Too late for entry though.

EUR that baked quick.

Okay but mind that the structured potential future party is very fragmented and its still likely a while before elections are in play, with that said for sure markets will price over next days risk on 2 year bonds and equities on bear side which is fine to short, but dont expect this to hold for too long, probably markets will correct this to some extent over a month. Its time that is crutial here, without the doubt you are right on all said, but there are three time factors that are not yet putting panic bearish macro play on: first is actual elections planned in Spain (likely months or at least year to come), Italys elections and spill over from them to Spain (still months away likely), and the most important one is ECB QE (what will ECB do in next months is by far the most important factor).

Eyes on Draghi over next months, if ECB decides to pull or push on QE side will determine on what to expect from Italian or Spain drama in terms of markets.

We have a very complicated, or an extremely simple situation ahead. The fact is that Troika and EC will not comply with new potential Spains and Italys plan to increase spending and forgive the portion of debt, which means that almost all the plans that both those parties have in mind are non compatible, meaning that only way to actually pull it is to exit EU and at least have partial exit from EZ, which means that we have two scenarios unfolding potential for both countries:
-EU/EZ referendum is schuduled for both countries (opens huge panic bear macro on European markets)
-Troika presses so aggressively that both parties lay down (opens huge relief rally macro on European markets)

In my view we will get either one of either of them, or both of them, but actually resulting at the second one. Thus as pointed on previous explanations....down...then up.

AUDCAD supply on track with alert for potential rotation taking place. B quality setup, needs more development for play.

catch 1 R, and let the rest run. seems my 1st tp is too conservative(?)

entered AJ just now

it is after so many days that i start to realize this
to be able to be a little '2-step ahead', we mainly need to scan some HTF turning suspect, then go to LTF to ambush the potential trade. (right?)
hence, we don't have to scan M1 charts many times during a day like a clueless guy.

EN seems turning on H1/H4

EN might have a trade at M15/M1, ideally, a shelf is expected, since the whole area supply is sort of thick.

nice one, usually when i'm sleep, .......

USdollar bearish seemingly ?
the price is at a HTF key level, if break, there'll likely be a run

AUDCAD long sold for gains, flipped supply held as rejection area after takeout.

EURNZD is a potential for rotation indeed. If any micro entry presents its a solid go, especially if price is above previous macro high.

And OGEN droping towards 1,25 as mentioned for macro direction. After there is a gap down open and squeeze momentum fades its time to short those runners back into where they came (bottom of red rectangle presenting bear target).

PE downtrend behaviour change with flat shelving. Likely rotation upwards.

PE rotation baked, didnt get a fill on long, was two ticks too low.

PM will look for long to get filled on lows, potential rotation upwards and short term down trend change. Same as previous PE setup.