(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

TRD yes i use private fund that uses level 2 data (quite accurate second to second order flow) (costs 300 bucks a month, not needed but it is an advantage). But even if you dont have that there shouldnt be any major disconnect in most brokers. For equity brokers you will have to pay for monthly data to get realtime flow but it shouldnt be over 30 -50 USD for most of them on monthly basis.
Free equitity data providers have usually by default delay about 15 minutes in price prints so in most cases you need to have at least some sort of subscription.
If you use Tradezero by default their platform has realtime data without any delay.

The case for rising dollar, rising yields and the next EM financial crisis likely to be sparked by Turkey or China and potentially weaker EURO

Financial crisis in emerging markets are a repeating pattern, usually split into aprox 10-15 year repeation play rate. The circumstances around the crisis event are usually the same: Heavily increasing debt ratios in EM countries, weak currencies with rising inflation, high borrowing from overseas in external currency nominated debt (usually USD or EUR), un-ability to rise rates, and a tightening monetary conditions in US leading to extended pressure on all the variables. On top of that in most cases countries are lead by nationalistic leaders which often tend to screw up any economy that isnt on its knees yet. When those conditions repeat there is extremely high rate that crisis is just around the corner.
Usually the liquidation event comes from one specific country that has the weakest position and it spills to other, especially with EM coutnries being tied together economically and politically spillover cannot be prevented, in 1997 there was Thailand and a year later Mexico followed by Russia, in 2019-2021 there will be likely be a Turkey followed by China.

As the rates rise in US, and the EMs are under capital outflows and increasing debt the markets generally push towards the safe haven assets, which are generally considered at size only T-bill and USD.
Chinese debt is rising to extreme ratios, altough its not rising as fast as Turkeys and especially the currency is not taking as large hit, it is a downwards move.


When the currency is droping month after month and the central bank doesnt take a move, its usually a baked event, nothing to do to prevent the liquidation incoming. An example to that on EM side is also Argentinian peso (not important from trading perspective as its not liquid).




On side of rising rates in US, there is also political and structural pressure comming to EU in terms of Italy in Spain, each of those countries having problems with strong currency such as EUR as it pushes their competitive edge especially on tourism and capital attraction lower. It is very likely to see within next year or two for political momentum on potential EUR exit to spark which markets have not yet priced in EURO thus, its more likely to see some further bearish moves. Beginning with likely early election for Italy within few months.

T bill rates and 10 y bonds are on consistent rising path, with very likely further upward moves in near future. As the safe haven asset is rising in yields all EM riskier debt becomes much less attractive for international investors leading to capital outflows and thus also increasing yields on EM bonds. The main difference is however that EM countries do not have reserve currency, thus the impact of rising yields is very bearish as oppose to US rising yields which are rather neutral on impact.


All those plays are tied together into macro puzzle and will likely be connected as each puzzle plays out starting with events on EU, further rising rates in US, liquidity problems of Turkey and then a potential largest play of them all China (likely to take longer to play out).
Thus listing long term bearish currency macros:
-EUR, TRY, MXN, RUB, CNH
Long term bullish macros:
-USD, Tbill

The way to play it, is to be precise on timing around key flip events. Thus playing the TRY is about focusing the play at 24th June election play and if the results are baked with current expectations then that opens direct shorting play for months to come.
On EUR side focus is on Italy or potential somewhen later Spain, both waiting for elections to start playing "surprise" bearish play, and then somewhen later play it with a flip on bullish side buying EURUSD along macro path (as EUR exits will not happen).
Additional plays are micro M1 plays along the hot momentum.

Another point to why longing TRY overnight and holding is a good idea, is due to swap rollover , most brokers, especially ECN brokers pay good overnight money for trader that is holding the shorts. Usually a pay rate is around 30-100 bucks per day over night on 1 lot where position has to be held over night with decent daily carry trough in terms of hours. However that goes against the macro direction and it could potentially lead to much larger loses rather than gains.

Bottom rotation on USDJPY on M5-H1

Tracking USDRUB for potential play, tightening into supply with potential rotation. Tight risk control either it goes or it doesnt. 7368 needs to give up.

USDRUB long closed at break even. Rotation baked.

Managed to close it for 2R - why did you hold on to it?

Tracking gold. Careful on this one, momentum is very soft on that HH bake, looking for some more choppines before entry.

Trade managment failure, set an entry and went out for 10 minutes, had to do it was emergency. Otherwise it would have been sold for gains.

AUDUSD potentialy supply takeout.

Gold sold for 1 R gain, strong rejection was the initiation for entry.

AUDUSD longs sold for 2.5 R in total, clear supply absorption.

Dollar on the run, no surprise there was noted few days back. MXN also on down side momentum specified on last week macro play. Tracking USDJPY for potential soft combo play. TRY goes without saying is on the watch for momentum plays on bear side always.

just wanted to post that. I am already long since the morning. Took sum off on the way..

i was too focused on UJ and missed this macro baby here on M15 with LTF entry

Aussie and Kiwi on watch on supplioes.

Jan, i took it anyway as part of M30 shelf. I believe GBP has some space up to run

Strong momentum takeout and flipped area holding well.

Its possible but the structure is too neutral bias to have any solid edge view, slight behaviour change of downtrend with extended shelf but the rotations are all over the place in terms of highs, if entry is near the lows of shelf then perhaps it could be worth it.

Pullback leg rotation on Crude oil. Could be solid potential entry if Irans deal in next day/s is a flop. Without the doubt demand is stepping in after momentum for another run. Will try to get fill and hold for longer and set BE SL, if deal is floped anywhere soon Crude will likely explode higher.

yes, entry was in the lower part of the shelf on LTF pattern