Assumptions of the unknown
Why the unknown? Well, lets make a BIG difference between "The unknown" and "The unknowable". This isnt purely my distinction, its from shaman and occult traditions. Trading is either dealing with the unknown OR the unknowable. If its a matter of the unknowable, well then if thats correct its a futile project to be trading, since you wont ever know what to do, since its UNknowable, it cannot ever be known. But then if trading is a matter of the UNKNOWN then it MIGHT become known, only that at the moment its not.
So we need to assume we are dealing with the unknown. The next assumption to make is about certainty. Are there any in trading? To me the only certainty is that it will end rather soon. The whole thing. Industrial society. Combustion engines. Oil. Money. All of that is quite tenuous, quite unstable, quite insane and speeding towards its end. If you would like to discuss this, we can do that, but lets instead move ahead and get technical/mathematical.
The assumption that there are no certainties in trading is also a matter of theoretical probabilities. Well all probabilities are theoretical, but anyway. This is so in such a manner that we might WANT to try to deduce or induce or in other manners try to know a certain probability. I dont like purely theoretical examples so im grabbing one from reailty. Here is my small position right now
:
Like so. This assumption means i dont know how big the probability actually IS that my position will hit TP and how bit it is that it will hit SL within say 2 days. I really DONT know. It might even be a unknowable fact what the probability is.
What i sort of do is look at this:
Remember, because there is no probabilities to be KNOWN, i cannot say that i will probably get my TP. Meaning the actual probability that i will win, is unknown, maybe even UNKNOWABLE.
Because of this assumption, there IS no systems such as any combinations of indicators or any rule such as "buy the lows" and "sell the highs". This is not purely theoretical, i have done the calculations and tried it all, everything anybody could think of including me.
But how then is one to operate, in short, how does one trade? I think the trick is to trade WITH the unknown. Trading with the assumption that we are dealing with the unknown. That DOESNT mean that the unknown is UNSYSTEMATIC, only that the unknown isnt KNOWN. Further more, the unknown doesnt mean its inoperable or UNSYSTEMATISABLE or UNSYSTEMATIZED.
Let me come at it from a slightly different angle.
Trading is a matter of the unknown. The unknown is not known at the moment. Irregardless of how much price is studied, no probabilities will ever be known about it. This is why it sort of often seems "random" to a lot of people. Yet its not random. It IS systematic. But we cannot EXPLAIN or actually KNOW or actually PUT IT INTO WORDS in what way it is systematic.
In mathematical, computational terms it takes a super human mind to calculate where to enter, where to put TPs and SLs. In this manner it is UNKNOWN how to trade. I think that if you would ACTUALLY be able to put trading into words or other symbols like mathematics, then you wouldnt want or need to do it anymore. You might as well just do something ultra weird like calculate where someone is about to accidentally drop some cash, stand there and just pick it up when they drop and just walk away with it.
But we can approach the unknown and the push the boundaries of what is unknowable. What once was unknowable might become unknown and the unknown can become known. Thats because there really are no probabilities. Otherwise we might be able to calculate what was unknowable and then we might as well not try to do that since it was UNKNOWABLE.
Yeah well anyway, i am quite sure i wrote the wrong thing a couple of times. I might also want to scrap this whole thing and cross it out as a mistake. More is to come i feel.
Why the unknown? Well, lets make a BIG difference between "The unknown" and "The unknowable". This isnt purely my distinction, its from shaman and occult traditions. Trading is either dealing with the unknown OR the unknowable. If its a matter of the unknowable, well then if thats correct its a futile project to be trading, since you wont ever know what to do, since its UNknowable, it cannot ever be known. But then if trading is a matter of the UNKNOWN then it MIGHT become known, only that at the moment its not.
So we need to assume we are dealing with the unknown. The next assumption to make is about certainty. Are there any in trading? To me the only certainty is that it will end rather soon. The whole thing. Industrial society. Combustion engines. Oil. Money. All of that is quite tenuous, quite unstable, quite insane and speeding towards its end. If you would like to discuss this, we can do that, but lets instead move ahead and get technical/mathematical.
The assumption that there are no certainties in trading is also a matter of theoretical probabilities. Well all probabilities are theoretical, but anyway. This is so in such a manner that we might WANT to try to deduce or induce or in other manners try to know a certain probability. I dont like purely theoretical examples so im grabbing one from reailty. Here is my small position right now
:
Like so. This assumption means i dont know how big the probability actually IS that my position will hit TP and how bit it is that it will hit SL within say 2 days. I really DONT know. It might even be a unknowable fact what the probability is.
What i sort of do is look at this:
Remember, because there is no probabilities to be KNOWN, i cannot say that i will probably get my TP. Meaning the actual probability that i will win, is unknown, maybe even UNKNOWABLE.
Because of this assumption, there IS no systems such as any combinations of indicators or any rule such as "buy the lows" and "sell the highs". This is not purely theoretical, i have done the calculations and tried it all, everything anybody could think of including me.
But how then is one to operate, in short, how does one trade? I think the trick is to trade WITH the unknown. Trading with the assumption that we are dealing with the unknown. That DOESNT mean that the unknown is UNSYSTEMATIC, only that the unknown isnt KNOWN. Further more, the unknown doesnt mean its inoperable or UNSYSTEMATISABLE or UNSYSTEMATIZED.
Let me come at it from a slightly different angle.
Trading is a matter of the unknown. The unknown is not known at the moment. Irregardless of how much price is studied, no probabilities will ever be known about it. This is why it sort of often seems "random" to a lot of people. Yet its not random. It IS systematic. But we cannot EXPLAIN or actually KNOW or actually PUT IT INTO WORDS in what way it is systematic.
In mathematical, computational terms it takes a super human mind to calculate where to enter, where to put TPs and SLs. In this manner it is UNKNOWN how to trade. I think that if you would ACTUALLY be able to put trading into words or other symbols like mathematics, then you wouldnt want or need to do it anymore. You might as well just do something ultra weird like calculate where someone is about to accidentally drop some cash, stand there and just pick it up when they drop and just walk away with it.
But we can approach the unknown and the push the boundaries of what is unknowable. What once was unknowable might become unknown and the unknown can become known. Thats because there really are no probabilities. Otherwise we might be able to calculate what was unknowable and then we might as well not try to do that since it was UNKNOWABLE.
Yeah well anyway, i am quite sure i wrote the wrong thing a couple of times. I might also want to scrap this whole thing and cross it out as a mistake. More is to come i feel.
My signature is: "Classified".