Justin's Playground

Today's options board. See how red numbers has magnet effect to the market. Must be useful to day traders...

EURO looks cheaper now.....

I am adding grey hairs thanks to gold DD......


Hedge Funds Coming Off Record Short Could Boost This Gold Rally
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...his-gold-rally

Gold’s rally could have further to run if hedge fund managers ramp up bullish bets after last year’s extended big short.
The metal soared to a 10-month high of $1,346.80 an ounce on Wednesday as a mounting chorus warn of an imminent slowdown in global growth -- yet, the fast money has largely missed this uptrend.
On the heels of their record short, money managers remain only modestly allocated to the metal, according to futures positioning data from the end of January, delayed by the recent U.S. government shutdown.

“Despite a more positive attitude, investors have not piled into gold, aggressively chasing the market,” Joni Teves, a strategist at UBS Group AG wrote in a note. “Reluctance lingers, and the risk is that with many market participants waiting to buy dips, there could be a lot of catching up to do if positive catalysts extend.”
Heavyweight commodity analysts like those at Societe Generale SA have recommended buying both gold and miners this year, saying the metal should “break free” in 2019 amid a scarcity of havens. A dovish Federal Reserve and central-bank buying are also providing bulls with fodder.
Last year the bears ran wild, as hedge funds and other large speculators built up the biggest-ever net-short position in gold futures and options, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures going back to 2006. They were betting that gold would remain under pressure as investors favored the dollar as a haven asset during the U.S.-China trade war.
Not everyone believes the fast money has a reason to go all-in just yet.
“You get a reverse snowball effect in gold rallies, the higher it goes, the more it attracts fund money,” said David Govett, head of precious metals trading at Marex Spectron Group in London. “But overall, the stock market is firm, and I doubt the dollar comes back that much more, so I think the upside is limited on this move.”

hum.... I think I've lost reentry opportunity... Anyway, I am exiting from commodity trade. It's too extreme and risky....

He makes me amazed again and again.... He's kinda Steve Jobs in Forex trading.... Too bad I cannot copy his trading style... I don't have the same trading psychology and skill. Let's see what will be the limit to him.... His thread is the only FF thread worth reading for now....

Palladium bubble.... Interesting....

Confused? Me too.

https://www.reuters.com/article/glob...source=twitter

Updated. IMHO, S&P500 could make new high. I believe many people are waiting for reentry sell opportunity at this pull-back, but they can be screwed.....

10 Macro Themes to Watch in 2019
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.co...-watch-in-2019

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/el...m_medium=email

Aussie Slid More Than RBA Expected Last Year, Its Model Shows
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/fixed-income

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s estimates of the exchange rate’s fair value show the currency last year fell further than the central bank expected as the economy slowed.
For part of the third quarter, the real trade-weighted index was about 3.5 percent lower than the RBA’s forecast, documents obtained by Bloomberg show. Over those three months, the Aussie was the second-worst performer in a Group of 10 currencies as Australia’s GDP growth eased to 2.8 percent.
“The real trade-weighted index was 3.5 percent below the level implied by its medium-term determinants,” the documents said, adding this was nonetheless “within the standard error bands.”
The Aussie was the worst performer among major currencies last year as the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and markets grew wary of the nation’s out-sized dependence on China amid worsening trade tensions. The RBA had been looking for the currency to fall even further and stimulate growth as the U.S. tightened, which didn’t unfold as commodity prices remained high.
The central bank’s TWI calculation uses a preferred ‘external’ model -- it also has one reserved for internal use. Among other variables, the external model uses a real interest-rate differential measured by the gap between the core inflation-adjusted policy rates of the Australian and G-3 economies.
Australia’s trade-weighted index’s depreciation since the beginning of 2018 largely reflected a strengthening of the yen and the renminbi, which comprise almost 40 percent of the basket of currencies, the documents said.
Yield Talk
Also among the documents is a discussion on Australian dollar predictability and information content of yield curves. It found that factors -- level, slope and curvature -- could predict movements in Australian dollar exchange rates:
A 1 percentage point increase in the level of Australia’s yield curve relative to that of the U.S. is associated with a 2.4 percent rise in the Aussie over the next year;
A 1 percentage point hike in the relative slope (the Australian curve steepening relative to the U.S.’s) predicts a 1.9 percent increase of the Aussie over the next 12 months; and
A 1 percentage point increase in Australia’s relative curvature factor predicts a 0.8 percent increase over the next 12 months. A rise in relative curvature can occur if it’s expected that Australia’s policy rate will increase in the medium term

Comedy continues.... A failed trader who now wants to change his career.... Pretended smart but in the end, truth comes out... See, trading is very very difficult. This smart fella also failed. Can Ruben be smarter? If I am super successful trader and want a job for some reasons (medical insurance? ), I would visit hedge fund companies or investment banks to present my performance and ask them to hire me, instead of working at a factory... Of course, I have to have small gap between balance and equity to do so..... Common sense works....
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC6C...3FEDUvw/videos

Trading is very very difficult to even the smartest people....

Goldman Traders Had Most Losing Days in Seven Years Last Quarter
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldm...140539491.html

(Bloomberg) -- The end of 2018 proved to be a rough one for Wall Street. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. just showed how bad it got.
The bank’s traders posted losses on at least 19 days in the last quarter of the year, including a day where losses approached almost $100 million, according to its annual regulatory disclosure. It was the worst showing for the bank by that measure since 2011, according to filing data reviewed by Bloomberg.
Goldman Sachs’s fixed-income traders posted the lowest revenue since the financial crisis in the fourth quarter and new Chief Executive Officer David Solomon is carrying out a review of the trading business. The bank’s executives have proposed plans to trim the fixed-income trading unit, people with knowledge of the matter have said. That would likely include personnel cuts as well as a reduction in the capital dedicated to its core trading business within the fixed-income group, the people said.
By the end of the year, Goldman had logged a month’s worth of loss-making days. That figure climbed sharply through the volatile end to the year, after the firm’s traders posted just 12 days of losses in the first nine months of 2018.
At least two of the daily losses exceeded what Goldman’s value-at-risk estimate would expect on 95 percent of days, the firm said in its filing. Still, the bank had days of big gains too, including 12 days in the year when traders pocketed more than $100 million for the firm.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sridhar Natarajan in New York at [email protected];Brandon Kochkodin in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Michael J. Moore at [email protected], Steve Dickson
For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.com
2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Interesting.... In case you're a 'super successful trader' and want a job....

How to Reach $10MM - &100MM Hedge Funds
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...2#post-4810949

With some boredom, I tried to revisit FX Viper but his myfxbook is now all deleted. Once known great traders often don't survive long..... That's the reality in this business. It reminds me of somebody who's the most popular in FF now....their trading styles are quite similar actually (some kind of pivot, price action, news flow, small leverage, DD...etc.).
This is the EURUSD short trade which killed FX Viper:

https://www.forexsignals.com/forum/f...8226#post78226

The latest information about him:
https://donnaforex.com/index.php?PHP...opic=10883.855

Obviously, the easiest way to trade is allowing deep DD. However, it will eventually kill you and your trading career..... Sounds familiar isn't it? It repeats again and again....




By the way, a physician who claims he makes over $20K a month would do Uber driving at night for a part time job? It doesn't make sense to me......

I found my broker Dukascopy charges $50 for withdrawal in USD using international bank wire....... Perhaps the most expensive in this industry. What a rip-off....
AMP Futures charged $30.....

Somebody in pivot factory proudly posted this. He must be joking... Hope his master has better one....

Confused? Me too.