I was just thinking about some stuff and maybe someone wants to talk about it. And maybe sort of it fits in this thread with this name.
At (time 1) price is (X) and at (time 2) price is (Y). The idea of knowing what the trend is means that you know all those 4 variables. If you are saying that you know the trend but not lets say (time 2) and not (Y), then that is a meaningless statement. And so the statement: "The trend is up." or "The trend is down." are void and meaningless statements that contains no information.
I mean its very simple: Price moves in ticks, right? The ALMOST meaningfull statement "The trend is down." would be to say that you know what the next tick to be down. That would not really define (time 1) and (time 2). So you would have to say something like "In 0.074 seconds price will decrease by one tick", for it to contain any information.
Empirical evidence shows that it is not any more a simple task to know what price will be within 12 seconds from now or what it will be within 12 hours or 12 days, in general that is. However, the variation in size of candles increase with shorter timeframes. Meaning M1 on E/U has for example often 5,10 or say 30 pip candles, while normally they stay at 2.5 pip or so. But it very seldom you see that kind of relative variations in D1 candles, most of them are roughly 130 or so, a few 200 we have had the last weeks.
At (time 1) price is (X) and at (time 2) price is (Y). The idea of knowing what the trend is means that you know all those 4 variables. If you are saying that you know the trend but not lets say (time 2) and not (Y), then that is a meaningless statement. And so the statement: "The trend is up." or "The trend is down." are void and meaningless statements that contains no information.
I mean its very simple: Price moves in ticks, right? The ALMOST meaningfull statement "The trend is down." would be to say that you know what the next tick to be down. That would not really define (time 1) and (time 2). So you would have to say something like "In 0.074 seconds price will decrease by one tick", for it to contain any information.
Empirical evidence shows that it is not any more a simple task to know what price will be within 12 seconds from now or what it will be within 12 hours or 12 days, in general that is. However, the variation in size of candles increase with shorter timeframes. Meaning M1 on E/U has for example often 5,10 or say 30 pip candles, while normally they stay at 2.5 pip or so. But it very seldom you see that kind of relative variations in D1 candles, most of them are roughly 130 or so, a few 200 we have had the last weeks.
My signature is: "Classified".