Predict:
from Latin praedict- made known beforehand, declared, from the verb praedicere, from prae- beforehand + dicere say.
To predict something means to say (know) that something will happen, before it do happen.
The traders (and economists) community all over the world is and has been always divided in 2:
On one side, the traders that believe market is simply unpredictable, and then its future movements cannot be forecasted (random walk hypothesis, consistent with the efficent market hypothesis).
On the other side, the traders that believe that market is predictable, and its future movements can be forecasted with various methods.
I am in the markets from a decade and in the past i've been on both sides and switched between them many times, as for NOW, i am in the "unpredictable believer" group.
Even if the community is full (really, i would say 95% are) of "predictable-market" believers, the truth is that to date nobody in the whole trading history has shown to be able to predict the market in any way.
A predictable market must able to be predicted all the times, a trader that can predict what the market will do will have only winning trades.
Let's assume that the future market movements cannot be predicted***.
Sure we can guess where market will go, but eventually we always have only a 50% chances of be correct in our guessing.
And here start this thread, how can we make profit from an unpredictable market.
***
Of course focusing too much on the unpredictability side of the view bring an aura of despair that make profitable trading impossible, so we all need something to believe in when we trade (even if deep down some of us know that no matter what, chances are always 50%), it is important to stay balanced, not fall in the predictability-view trap, and not fall in the unpredictability-view despair, just in the middle.. is fine.
from Latin praedict- made known beforehand, declared, from the verb praedicere, from prae- beforehand + dicere say.
To predict something means to say (know) that something will happen, before it do happen.
The traders (and economists) community all over the world is and has been always divided in 2:
On one side, the traders that believe market is simply unpredictable, and then its future movements cannot be forecasted (random walk hypothesis, consistent with the efficent market hypothesis).
On the other side, the traders that believe that market is predictable, and its future movements can be forecasted with various methods.
I am in the markets from a decade and in the past i've been on both sides and switched between them many times, as for NOW, i am in the "unpredictable believer" group.
Even if the community is full (really, i would say 95% are) of "predictable-market" believers, the truth is that to date nobody in the whole trading history has shown to be able to predict the market in any way.
A predictable market must able to be predicted all the times, a trader that can predict what the market will do will have only winning trades.
Let's assume that the future market movements cannot be predicted***.
Sure we can guess where market will go, but eventually we always have only a 50% chances of be correct in our guessing.
And here start this thread, how can we make profit from an unpredictable market.
***
Of course focusing too much on the unpredictability side of the view bring an aura of despair that make profitable trading impossible, so we all need something to believe in when we trade (even if deep down some of us know that no matter what, chances are always 50%), it is important to stay balanced, not fall in the predictability-view trap, and not fall in the unpredictability-view despair, just in the middle.. is fine.