Bitcoin technical analysis

The author is a self confessed Bitcoin skeptic, so there is a notable bias to the article, but it is well researched and presented. The Tether issuance and the generation of USD to purchase Bitcoins is the questionable issue, and the oversight on the business shows the fraud radars are up. The link to the price of Bitcoin may be a stretch because of the Tether issuance in the millions and the Bitcoin market capitalization in the billions.

The graph illustrating the high statistical significance between Tether supply and the price of Bitcoin using a logarithmic scale to do a linear regression has an inherent flaw - the price rise of Bitcoin is essentially an exponential function, so anything that has an exponential issuance or generation could be shown to have the same relationship with the price of Bitcoin. The author has used a logic error to link the Tether-USD-Bitcoin relationship to connect the dots by painting a sophisticated arbitrage scenario.

Bitcoin does not make sense in a traditional economic sense, the fact that it has a market capitalization that now exceeds the GDP of some first world nations is mind boggling too, and given that nobody has ever "seen" a Bitcoin is a bit like the children's story about the Emperor's New Clothes, yet here we are on the verge of the mighty CME creating futures to allow the great unwashed to access Bitcoin.

I have been waiting for an opportunity to short BTCUSD for a day now, and it just won't give up, we are back above USD11,600. I think the curve has almost everyone who is not a Bitcoin investor thinking, this thing is about to blow.

Even the threat of the UK and EU planning to regulate BTC through forcing exchanges to disclose the details and transactions of holders shows how little the regulators understand about the crypto-currency ecosystem. UBS tend to think that a government crackdown is the biggest risk to the future of Bitcoin and the crypto-currency framework, but they have China's failure to achieve this to contend with (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapo.../#75e859632de6).

Given that the US Fed have indicated an interest in creating a government backed crypto-currency (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/29/fede...dley-says.html), I think these things are here to stay in some form.

Ironically if we had just followed Not-KPMG's advice, the weekly chart buy signal on 16 October 2016 would still be in play from USD618.21 to over USD11,600 right now!

A growing chorus of bubble callers, let's hope that the adage "if enough people believe it, is it true" does not apply.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/04/bitc...pert-says.html

Although the Tokyo Financial Exchange will follow the CME.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...itcoin-futures

Short bitcoin 9200 and now in deep shit.

Long again, no apparent catalyst, but we are about to re-take USD11,800; probably USD12,000 soon too.

I also trade without stop losses, but I keep USD500 as the mental stop loss, which I execute if the move continues against me. I suspect the strong upward spikes we are seeing are stop loss blow-outs with the ECN brokers. It is hard to say when it will pull-back, way overdue in my opinion, but it just keeps going up.

I also trade with no stop loss. This is the reason I am down approx usd 480k at the moment. In my opinion, bitcoin is a scam but obviously I am wrong as every mother father son daughter all buy bitcoin. If no regulators or someone speaks ill of bitcoin, I think it will keep on going higher. Weird and wondering when it will burst.

Wow. Sorry man. We did warn of trend going up for next 5 years.
It's not a scam... It's a remedy.
Yes, much higher possible. May pullback 30% up 300%....so it's simple (for me).

Hi
Regulations are good IMHO.
And thanks for digging one year back....

I wish i bought more

You mean which chart?......i need to look what was 16/10/16 about....can't see.

The second picture below, what a dummy, i forgot it's exponential and non-elastic demand.
So 72000 next 2-5 years.

I hope you have enough free margin to hang in there, I think we will get a pull back soon, not sure if it will be as generous as USD9,200 but you never know, you could get out without too much of a crystallized loss.

You don't have posts as far back as that, but your posts as far back as they go have been totally bullish so I assumed if you caught the signal on 16 October 2016, you would have been bullish too.

This does not sound too good for those who use Bitfinex Trading Platform

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mpId=flipboard

I agree that on the surface of it this should negatively impact Bitcoin, but the problem with free news is that it accessible to all, so people see it and see the opportunity to short Bitcoin - the problem is the mechanism of the short position which borrows the Bitcoin and sells it into an underlying bull trend, actually boosting the price (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e-digital-coin).

The technical traders think the news has no impact as the news information is "already known" to the market, but I see the media as the sheep dogs of the industry, leading traders and investors to where the smart money want us to go.

The negative news flow has been going on for weeks now, and the weekly chart tells the story of what happened. Higher highs. No doubt when they do hammer the price, info like the Tether/Bitfinex saga will be cited as contributing factors.

USD11,900 new record high.

USD12,000...

USD12,100 two minutes later!

Meanwhile XAUUSD has moved USD1.09!

It is looking a bit wobbly above USD12,100; perhaps we will have a pull-back soon. Hedged my trade now, and I will cut the shorts or longs loose depending on which way the market decides to take us.

USD12,200, guess that means more upside. Unreal, riding the long side now but wondering how much further it could possibly go.

Maybe a good place to start the swing trade, I hope for HockMan's sake this was the last flurry of the up leg and that we get a decent pullback.

Wouldn't count on a correction at this point. Bitcoins loved simple fib 38 pullbacks so far, plot some and take a look. My targets 14k. Would take some really bad fundamentals to squash this run I think.