DislikedHanover,
I think you know my feeling about predicting short term market moves...Ignored
However, I agree with Troikaone1 that if it gets to the point where one believes that a coin toss is the best method that's available, one might as well give up. Trading is a costly waste of both time and money if one doesn't have an edge (even if it's not precisely measurable), or at least believe that one is on the road to attaining one.
Either the market is a random walk, or there are inefficiencies. Even if these occur infrequently, we can wait patiently to make carefully selected entries, if necessary. If we can exploit these to the point of overcoming broker costs, on balance, then there's more than mere hope....... well, that's assuming that the same inefficiencies will continue to recur.