Spain is not Greece - there was probably less than 1% chance that Spain wouldn't get a bailout. so what is there to be happy about? - growing debt? shrinking bailout fund?.. aside from that - there is absolutely nothing to celebrate.
in fact this week will probably end in a huge sell off because there is hardly a person who would want to put his money on the Greek political bet. my estimate on the Greek vote is 50/50 - and that's not a good number, but i just can't find much of support for Greeks to vote preferably for either option. it's a real gamble with huge stakes for EU on it! the only thing remains is the fact that regardless of who wins the elections - Greece will stay in the euro zone for some time longer. anti-austerity party win does not mean Greece's immediate exit, though it will definitely signal that that's the direction...
as for the FED that's to hold the 2 day meeting on the 20th i have a more positive forecast - all in all, the chance that either one of the stimuli will be offered (twist or QE3) is about 70-80%. most likely it'll be the continuation of the Twist.
i believe the two later issues are much more important than the news about Spain. today's growth is purely speculative. and we can say for sure that the sum of the potential bailout fund (that includes EFSF, ESM, ECB and what's IMF is willing to donate) that some measured to be about 1tr euro is now 50bil euro short...
have good trading
in fact this week will probably end in a huge sell off because there is hardly a person who would want to put his money on the Greek political bet. my estimate on the Greek vote is 50/50 - and that's not a good number, but i just can't find much of support for Greeks to vote preferably for either option. it's a real gamble with huge stakes for EU on it! the only thing remains is the fact that regardless of who wins the elections - Greece will stay in the euro zone for some time longer. anti-austerity party win does not mean Greece's immediate exit, though it will definitely signal that that's the direction...
as for the FED that's to hold the 2 day meeting on the 20th i have a more positive forecast - all in all, the chance that either one of the stimuli will be offered (twist or QE3) is about 70-80%. most likely it'll be the continuation of the Twist.
i believe the two later issues are much more important than the news about Spain. today's growth is purely speculative. and we can say for sure that the sum of the potential bailout fund (that includes EFSF, ESM, ECB and what's IMF is willing to donate) that some measured to be about 1tr euro is now 50bil euro short...
have good trading