Quoting merlinDislikedyou let your inlaws visit?? LOL. not me
do you even remember which book it is in? im really interested in finding the quote now, because i may be remembering something that i didnt read. i am rereading NMWs right now, maybe i will run across it in there..
good argument.
this is a bit unrelated, but last night i was thinking about how to make a mechanical system based on fundamental analysis. for instance, its incredibly easy to make money with a mechanical system if you know what kind of market to expect. some systems work well in bull markets, some in bear markets. what if you decided, maybe at the begining of the month, that fundamentals point to a higher dollar by the end of the month. you would take that fundamental analysis based decision, and implement your dollar bullish mechanical strategy. if the dollar ends up going down, chances are you wouldnt enter many trades because your mechanical system would only buy when prices are rising. if you were right about the market direction just about 60% of the time, this could significantly increase return.
you may wonder why a quant like myself is considering using fundamental decisions for trading. well, over the years, i feel like i am now predicting market direction fairly accurately. not so well that i could trade outright fundamentals, but enough so i could improve the returns of my mechanical systems.
i agree this happens in many many markets. but i dont think it does in Forex. thats one of the reasons i love Forex so much. the market is just too big for any person's bluff or faking to affect the price (other than the central banks). wouldnt you agree?Ignored
Patrick