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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #10,841
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:38am Sep 23, 2011 10:38am
[quote=ddinnov;4982339]
Quoting whatfx

Well done mate and good advice
This advice might be a bit confusing to the trader. For instance, how do you know when it's a good time to close a profitable position? One might close it a bit too early / late. The same thing goes for losing positions.

The bottom line here is to have a good system running even IF you cling to losing positions
  • #10,842
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:43am Sep 23, 2011 10:43am
Quoting khan101
Well I know ..........
Can you stick with regular font. Bold is for emphasis. Not every damn post.
  • #10,843
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:46am Sep 23, 2011 10:46am
Quoting BlindMist
The bottom line here is to have a good system running even IF you cling to losing positions
Can't do both unless you want to clarify that statement a bit.
  • #10,844
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:46am Sep 23, 2011 10:46am
[quote=BlindMist;4982368]
Quoting ddinnov

This advice might be a bit confusing to the trader. For instance, how do you know when it's a good time to close a profitable position? One might close it a bit too early / late. The same thing goes for losing positions.

The bottom line here is to have a good system running even IF you cling to losing positions
I was referring to always having a stop and not letting your losers run. I've learnt that one the hard way...
Anything can happen.
  • #10,845
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:58am Sep 23, 2011 10:58am
Long ago gap from Aug 5th filled ........ and then some. Wow!!

$100 range today.
  • #10,846
  • Sep 23, 2011 10:59am Sep 23, 2011 10:59am
A very orderly decline - perhaps at some point next week there will be capitulation, over-shoot to the downside and a big retrace.

My next trend line support is at 1635.4 and the 100dma is 1637.5
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #10,847
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:05am Sep 23, 2011 11:05am
Quoting khan101
Well I know 1 thing for sure when they blow 90 % of small traders create panic and when there is only one direction market seems to move (DOWN HERE) its time to buy. when everyone thinks its going to fall more it will rebound and vice versa

AND about safe heaven well gold is not a safe heaven its just a very long & strong bull run

[b]In my opinion its the best time to buy but unfortunately i cant right now .

BIG SUPPORT AREAS START HERE

HUGE SUPPORT 1660

NEXT BIG SUPPORT 1647 (ITS ALSO THE 61.8 fib area)

BIGGEST SUPPORT...
It break 1660 like butter (it will)! Personnaly i see a Huge support at 1600. And i think we can be there next week! Anyway...im out! I dont want to open positions right now and dream/nightmare about it until monday!

Cheers!
  • #10,848
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:07am Sep 23, 2011 11:07am
Quoting jimobiwan
A very orderly decline - perhaps at some point next week there will be capitulation, over-shoot to the downside and a big retrace.

My next trend line support is at 1635.4 and the 100dma is 1637.5

See chart - Top R box is XAU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: afdfdsa.jpg Size: 281 KB
I have no enemy; I make Incautiousness my Enemy.
  • #10,849
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:15am Sep 23, 2011 11:15am
Quoting jimobiwan
See chart - Top R box is XAU
I :nerd:it in there somewhere. How about maybe seperating it out.
  • #10,850
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:17am Sep 23, 2011 11:17am
I have possible support @ 1652 fib based number, not chart based - otherwise I'd post a pic.
  • #10,851
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:21am Sep 23, 2011 11:21am
Quoting SunTrader
Can't do both unless you want to clarify that statement a bit.
It is possible to be profitable without stop losses and hanging on to losing trades because this is the way i trade... Unfortunately i can't back it up with examples because this would entail revealing my trading strategy, something I'm not ready to do on this forum yet.
  • #10,852
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:31am Sep 23, 2011 11:31am
Quoting BlindMist
It is possible to be profitable without stop losses and hanging on to losing trades
Yeah. Also I heard it's possible to dive safely into alligator pits. But only works now and again. Sometimes the beast will actually tear you apart and swallow the remains. Any takers then for the dive fest?
  • #10,853
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:33am Sep 23, 2011 11:33am
Quoting ruffryders
Yeah. Also I heard it's possible to dive safely into alligator pits. But only works now and again. Sometimes the beast will actually tear you apart and swallow the remains. Any takers then for the dive fest?
If you dive with alligators...you have balls...

If you trade gold without SL... you have BIG balls...

I hope this help!
  • #10,854
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:36am Sep 23, 2011 11:36am
Quoting BlindMist
It is possible to be profitable without stop losses and hanging on to losing trades ....
Possible yes and hitting the lottery is possible too.

Trading is about probabilities, not possibilities.
  • #10,855
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:40am Sep 23, 2011 11:40am
Guys it's important to note PA behavior near early August gap. If price really slides through this level we are on the way to 1600 then for sure!
  • #10,856
  • Sep 23, 2011 11:43am Sep 23, 2011 11:43am
Quoting BlackTexto
If you dive with alligators...you have balls...

If you trade gold without SL... you have BIG balls...

I hope this help!
BalckTexto maybe the guy is just doing insider trading or something.
  • #10,857
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:00pm Sep 23, 2011 12:00pm
it is at 1650 but now im not convinced it will not drop further

im too scared to buy now lol
  • #10,858
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:01pm Sep 23, 2011 12:01pm
Once we hit 1600 or 1580, I think an active trader with a great deal of patience and skill might try their hand in entering a buy trade at the bottom of a range with the goal of setting a break-even stop loss. (Repeat as necessary until positioned for a leg up - maybe a trailing stop loss to lock in profits).

We may head much lower, but catching the next leg up would be worthwhile.

A massive drop like this eventually sees a push upward.

I'm staying out myself. I don't like swimming with sharks.

With all due respect to shorts, I think timing this plunge was no more probable than finding a suitable long in the past ten years of a gold bull market. Kudos if you managed to position yourself well!

Where we head from here is anyone's guess, but I don't see the rest of the world suddenly losing interest in holding physical gold (or silver), after a dip.

I believe the Chinese and others will see this as a buying opportunity.

This drop may continue for sometime though - hence my decision to steer clear.
  • #10,859
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:03pm Sep 23, 2011 12:03pm
Hey guys,

I found something worth looking at. I have not used it yet for my longer term trades but it is really something to watch out for. I hope you guys have heard about VIX. If not, then don't worry as I myself do not have much knowledge about it. Generally it is a powerful tool used by portfolio holders.

Anyways, it struck to me that if vix indicator could be added to an MT4 platform then it could be worth a look. However, I do not know MT4 coding and hence I googled it lol. Luckily I bumped into one forum, registered, downloaded and logged off from it. Full credits to that poster for this indicator...it is none of my work except for cracking out strategies based on past actions.

Here it goes.

Scenario 1:

Gold is dropping and is dropping hard. Along with this, VIX is also dropping. On the next day's close we do not see much action but VIX closes SHARPLY higher. That is a BUY signal with stop under the swing low (or the previous day low).

Here are the charts for scenario 1 which I came up with. You can see how the VIX fell and then went up sharply. The stop loss is the dark black line...which never got hit!

This is no holy grail and I am still testing the use of this. Ofcourse it may or may not work in the future..just posting here so that we can share it and can add our own strategy, idea, etc to it.

ADD: A thing to note is, VIX reversal under -2.00 is considered a healthy long term signal and suffers less fake outs.
ADD again: Forgot to mention this but Sunday reversal is NOT counted. It has mostly resulted in a stop out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX 1.gif Size: 23 KB
Trends I Love Finding
  • #10,860
  • Sep 23, 2011 12:07pm Sep 23, 2011 12:07pm
http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/2...d123092011.png

It's good that you are scared. At least you won't enter long and this will save you a lot of money.

1550-1600 is on the map right now. 1653 (September MS1) was dealt with proper and PA found NO support there. Hedge funds are trimming positions in metals, partly due to redemption to investors, who are spooked by prospects of 2008 stage 2.

Price needs to find some decent support and consolidate. Neither has been done yet. It's too early. Bears are running this space for now.

Gameplan not changed - short selling into any rallies / if any at all.
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