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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #6,361
  • May 12, 2011 1:33pm May 12, 2011 1:33pm
dont forget MP and WP, which are 1514 and 1509, so a safe trade will be a break out of that range with TP set at 1540-1560 area.
  • #6,362
  • Edited 3:12pm May 12, 2011 1:33pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting ruffryders
no further comment needed. If you think some superbowl match outcomes can be correlated with gold/usdx movement as well as gold/oil correlation, than good for you, you got yourself a winning system.

if something doesn't quite add up, maybe you are missing important pieces of the puzzle, but it's never too late to catch up.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...eff042205.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...use090506.html...
LOL
From your second link:

"In our opinion, changes in the oil price are neither here nor there as far as the price of gold bullion is concerned. Under the current monetary system the directions of the long-term price trends in oil and gold will tend to be the same because inflation is a primary driver of both markets, but it is what's happening on the monetary front, not what's happening with oil supply/demand, that matters to the gold market."

This is what I said. There is no obvious relationship between gold and oil. They are linked through something else.
There is mentioned in the first link about the petrodollars being spent on gold. The Saudi's, UAE and Russia are in the top 10 gold buyers and have petrodollars but not sure how much cash the Russians have surplus to needs.
  • #6,363
  • May 12, 2011 1:45pm May 12, 2011 1:45pm
some commentary on options/futures side, considering WP & MP it does make sense, any momentum build up north above MP will be a good signal to get in for a ride.

Commentary & Analysis:

You couldn’t tell it from the futures activity today, but there was very little interest in options. The market traded down to 1477 last night and came in trading in the 1485 area. Options did their usual thing but very little traded. Puts were bid, June volatility went over August and calls were stable to offered. One thing was different. Nobody showed up and trading was light. This prevented volatility from creeping up in the straddles. In fact, volatility was down on the day despite futures having a $30 range and being down nearly $25 at one point. We are bearish on volatility. Looking at the term structure its as flat as it has been for some time. You would think the fronts would get hit first, yet June still trades at a premium to July. The fact that no one has arbitraged June back to the curve tells us that this market is being driven by short-term players whose business originates in GLD hedging. Commodity dealers are quiet, locals are idle and speculators are licking their wounds.



Direction:

We viewed’s today’s drop lower and light options volume as a non-confirmation of the move. We may have put in a short-term bottom. We do not expect a quick snap higher because as the market rallies puts are getting offered, but calls are not getting bid.It feels like we are settling into a range.

Technical analysis: Yesterday’s settlement triggered a sell signal down to 1489 and that served us well. Our next target is stated as 1461 and the 50-day moving average. For now we think it’s quite possible we remain range-bound between
  • #6,364
  • May 12, 2011 2:12pm May 12, 2011 2:12pm
Biradar!
I am not trading silver. because not enough study in it.





Quoting behman8850
Biradar, Do you have any indis. to trade Silver please? Whats your take on silver? long at the moment i think.
Trade what you see, Not what you think.
  • #6,365
  • May 12, 2011 2:16pm May 12, 2011 2:16pm
Quoting highlander2
My thoughts yesterday were for a down move, this indeed happened but it has been bought up aggresively forming a decent pin on the daily(assuming it holds for the next half hour).

I would have preferred to see it formed back at 1462 but there is an uptrend line and the 50day ema acting as support.

dabating a long trade.
Ruff pointed out the pin bar and I was pleased he brought this to the attention of the thread.

On the daily chart the pin comes straight off the lower parallel of the fork. The body looks like it will close above 1500.

I know highlander2 is not too fussed on BRN's but it is very good to see this.
It is a decent sized pin bar - ok it is not the best in the world, not A++ but it is certainly bullish - there may be some retracement of the pinbar which does not invalidate it. Quite a few pin bar specialists look for 61% retracement on the bar so that it gives a better position and a smaller stop.
  • #6,366
  • May 12, 2011 2:37pm May 12, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting six gun
Ruff pointed out the pin bar and I was pleased he brought this to the attention of the thread.

On the daily chart the pin comes straight off the lower parallel of the fork. The body looks like it will close above 1500.

I know highlander2 is not too fussed on BRN's but it is very good to see this.
It is a decent sized pin bar - ok it is not the best in the world, not A++ but it is certainly bullish - there may be some retracement of the pinbar which does not invalidate it. Quite a few pin bar specialists look for 61% retracement on the bar so...
My charts have closed, and i will take the trade. pending buy stop at 1508.5 (break of pin bar high)and and SL at 1485. Targeting some where up at 1555-1575 area- will probably scale out.

This trade has a very wide stop, but still it is not below the low of the pin which is best. I have played about with retrace entries in the past, but to be honest all i got was frustrated but its certainly an option.

The daily close above 1500 is nice.
Attached Image
  • #6,367
  • May 12, 2011 2:37pm May 12, 2011 2:37pm
Quoting khizer
Biradar!
I am not trading silver. because not enough study in it.

thanks.
  • #6,368
  • May 12, 2011 2:39pm May 12, 2011 2:39pm
Sorry Guys,
I am very novice and can not understand what drives the gold prices up and down, and what is the best to predict the direction of the market? can anyone help.
Regards
  • #6,369
  • Edited 3:30pm May 12, 2011 2:46pm | Edited 3:30pm
ruff

I'm not criticising you, I'm merely trying to follow your reasoning.

You have thrown an awful lot of stuff out over the last few days some of which appears misleading. I am interested in hearing what you have to say but I would also like you to answer my questions.

You haven't explained where your 400MA comes from nor where the coordinates for supposed forks come from. For someone who used to work for a hedge fund I am surprised your moving average could be as much as $150 out without you noticing it......

By the way I have over many months posted charts of gold and silver which I believe have been of benefit to the thread and have let other people judge things for themselves.

I'm also experienced enough to be able to analyse precious metals myself – but am sufficiently open-minded to listen to others' comments if they are well argued.


beeb


And thanks for the point about getting long precious metals – I have been for over a decade lol......
  • #6,370
  • May 12, 2011 3:01pm May 12, 2011 3:01pm
that is one hell of a pin bar forming on gold. I'm long again from 1502, TP at 1520, SL 1486

We all know gold and silver like to close higher on fridays too

Good luck all

Mitch
  • #6,371
  • May 12, 2011 3:13pm May 12, 2011 3:13pm
Quoting hamada67
Sorry Guys,
I am very novice and can not understand what drives the gold prices up and down, and what is the best to predict the direction of the market? can anyone help.
Regards
Hi and welcome. Gold prices are driven by supply and demand. These are affected by fundamentals and technicals.

I dont look at a lot of fundies but I study "price action" see my above post. this is a pin bar and it shows the price went down and reversed aggresively. Added to other technicals like the uptrend line and ofcourse the uptrend, i will go long in the hope to expose myself to upward movement. Im really not trying to predict anything, just follow and wait for things to line up.

This is just my way of reading the market.

others in here are far more versed in fundies than me.
  • #6,372
  • May 12, 2011 3:36pm May 12, 2011 3:36pm
Quoting hamada67
Sorry Guys,
I am very novice and can not understand what drives the gold prices up and down, and what is the best to predict the direction of the market? can anyone help.
Regards
Earlier today XTrade made a number of posts on the subject. XTrade started this thread and has a good deal of knowledge on this.

Many of us here a technical traders. Technical traders are often not so concerned about these matters except you must be aware when there is important financial data being released like the non farm pay roles.
  • #6,373
  • May 12, 2011 3:48pm May 12, 2011 3:48pm
GC 240 min showing plenty of good tail touches and one LP entry....

beeb
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gc240min.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #6,374
  • May 12, 2011 3:55pm May 12, 2011 3:55pm
we can see it takes a lot of days to go UP, BUT it can go down like a rollercoaster in a few hours, the same amount of pips it took days to build up.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
  • #6,375
  • May 12, 2011 4:03pm May 12, 2011 4:03pm
Quoting MapleLeaf
we can see it takes a lot of days to go UP, BUT it can go down like a rollercoaster in a few hours, the same amount of pips it took days to build up.
That's why we use stops......
For example, I took a long off the above chart with a $4 stop and am currently up $28......

Did I know it was going to turn? No, but the vehicle was oversold and the fork looked promising so I took the risk....
Have I done it before and got it wrong? Loads of times....

If you are an investor you should probably think of waiting for gold to come down to a level such as the 150 day MA which has been support for the last couple of years. If you are a trader you should take note of that and use stops to ensure you are not on the wrong side of a quick retracement. Technical analysis is not perfect but it takes as much of the guesswork as possible out of a trade....

Hope that helps



beeb
  • #6,376
  • May 12, 2011 4:04pm May 12, 2011 4:04pm
that would definitely be affecting peoples confidence in buying, hopefully the buyers will say enough is enough and run these 2 ladies back up

Quoting MapleLeaf
we can see it takes a lot of days to go UP, BUT it can go down like a rollercoaster in a few hours, the same amount of pips it took days to build up.
  • #6,377
  • May 12, 2011 5:32pm May 12, 2011 5:32pm
Quoting beeb
GC 240 min showing plenty of good tail touches and one LP entry....

beeb
nice bounce there at 1478. I hope this time GC and silver bull run will not turn bearish too quickly. i am still holding on my long positions at 1520, 1500, 1490, 1480. Are u holding any long now beeb?

Best Regards
  • #6,378
  • Edited 7:14pm May 12, 2011 6:21pm | Edited 7:14pm
Quoting lilpip
was busy at days open till now and missed out on move down from trend guide.
still mindfull of 35.33 from yesterday.
silver daily
39.17
35.91
32.65
if we start working on north side of pivot wil l have eye on 36.54 response and
to the south, 3431.
gold daily
1523
1493
1466
north of pivot eye on 1505 and south 1485
daily lows @ 32.65 and push up to 3431 area noted.
we also had a second oppurtunity at 32.65 with move down from 34.31.
the rotation back up was noted as she followed gold to 1505 area.
again, a close at the yearly breakout (34.60 area).
eyes open.
above monthly pivot 1485 and that spells bull.
banks trying to push silver down but bulls withstood so far with 34.60 holding for daily close.
  • #6,379
  • May 12, 2011 6:34pm May 12, 2011 6:34pm
Quoting lilpip
what has broken out of its yearly range and doubled the previous years range?
she closes like she wants to continue, will have to watch day to day but looking for correction @ 32.40- 3460 area,
the correction that was expected from this jan 3 post is playing out last week and again this week. I would hold buys from todays 32.65 area till proven wrong or have mm prepared for 3x size at $30.00 area and closeout 32.65 when in the money and leave the original order size run from 30 till uptrend is confirmed.
what has played out was expected this is where we need to pay attention.
Bought physical eagles today for $39 spot happened to be 34, rounds @ 36.
cheers
  • #6,380
  • Edited 7:27pm May 12, 2011 7:10pm | Edited 7:27pm
silver daily
39.06
35.48
31.90
gold daily
1528
1501
1474
although bias for week is down from 1509, bias for month is up from 1485 to finish the week we find ourselves looking for direction from 1501 on the daily.
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