XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread
- #4,761
- Edited 11:48am Apr 15, 2011 11:28am | Edited 11:48am
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
- #4,762
- Apr 15, 2011 11:29am Apr 15, 2011 11:29am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #4,770
- Apr 15, 2011 12:24pm Apr 15, 2011 12:24pm
what i mean turn your gold or silver chart upside down and pretend it's an equity. would you really and truly buy it NOW???
beeb
thanks for the reminder 
- #4,771
- Apr 15, 2011 12:26pm Apr 15, 2011 12:26pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
Thanks Beeb, nice example but I do not think it works quite like that...
beeb
- #4,774
- Apr 15, 2011 3:01pm Apr 15, 2011 3:01pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #4,776
- Apr 15, 2011 4:51pm Apr 15, 2011 4:51pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Patience = Simplest of all skills | 7,152 Posts
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
- #4,778
- Edited 8:18am Apr 16, 2011 5:28am | Edited 8:18am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2010 | 1,778 Posts
I just wanted to make a few comments as there has been so much chat about picking the tops of the bull markets in gold and silver.
It takes a very special trader to call the exact extremes of any market – and quite frankly if any of us were able to do that regularly we would not be sitting here, we would be running a hedge fund or a proprietary trading desk....
Know your limitations – you don't have to pick the very top or the very bottom of every move. The easiest way to make money is to trade with the trend and to remember the old adage that “a trend is a trend until it changes....”
Obviously what is a trend depends on what timescale you are using – gold and silver on the dailies are both in strong trends. IMO there is no indication on these daily charts that the metals have reached the end of their trends. Yes, they are overstretched but until they start retracing, their trend is still up. People thought gold was overstretched at plenty of lower prices but it still powers on.
Any number of indicators can be used, but ultimately the only arbiter of price and trend is the price itself. No matter what the indicators say the market can stay “wrong” longer than you can stay solvent....lol
What I use to tell if a trend is changing are the shorter timeframes. If a change in the daily trend is occurring it will become apparent beforehand in the 240min chart and before that in the 20min chart etc etc.....If you are intent on shorting a market that is in a daily uptrend then you should be looking at the lesser charts and perhaps taking an entry (and using a stop) commensurate with that timeframe. So if what you thought was a change of trend was in fact only a blip in the uptrend you are not left stranded as the daily trend continues.
A position taken in a 20min timeframe can evolve into one taken in a 240min timeframe and so on (and of course it can be built upon). It is perfectly normal to trade in the lower timeframes against the trend of the bigger timeframes as long as your objectives and risk management are in tune with the lower timeframe that you have entered.
Please think about trading with the trend – you can scalp against it – but your likelihood of succeeding regularly is far less than trading with the flow of the market.
Just my opinion – I could be completely wrong....
beeb
It takes a very special trader to call the exact extremes of any market – and quite frankly if any of us were able to do that regularly we would not be sitting here, we would be running a hedge fund or a proprietary trading desk....
Know your limitations – you don't have to pick the very top or the very bottom of every move. The easiest way to make money is to trade with the trend and to remember the old adage that “a trend is a trend until it changes....”
Obviously what is a trend depends on what timescale you are using – gold and silver on the dailies are both in strong trends. IMO there is no indication on these daily charts that the metals have reached the end of their trends. Yes, they are overstretched but until they start retracing, their trend is still up. People thought gold was overstretched at plenty of lower prices but it still powers on.
Any number of indicators can be used, but ultimately the only arbiter of price and trend is the price itself. No matter what the indicators say the market can stay “wrong” longer than you can stay solvent....lol
What I use to tell if a trend is changing are the shorter timeframes. If a change in the daily trend is occurring it will become apparent beforehand in the 240min chart and before that in the 20min chart etc etc.....If you are intent on shorting a market that is in a daily uptrend then you should be looking at the lesser charts and perhaps taking an entry (and using a stop) commensurate with that timeframe. So if what you thought was a change of trend was in fact only a blip in the uptrend you are not left stranded as the daily trend continues.
A position taken in a 20min timeframe can evolve into one taken in a 240min timeframe and so on (and of course it can be built upon). It is perfectly normal to trade in the lower timeframes against the trend of the bigger timeframes as long as your objectives and risk management are in tune with the lower timeframe that you have entered.
Please think about trading with the trend – you can scalp against it – but your likelihood of succeeding regularly is far less than trading with the flow of the market.
Just my opinion – I could be completely wrong....
beeb
- #4,780
- Apr 16, 2011 11:05am Apr 16, 2011 11:05am
- | Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 1,068 Posts
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered