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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #32,421
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:56am Feb 7, 2014 7:56am
Huge NFP miss and gold tanks, sometimes I wonder why I ever bother with news releases.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,422
  • Feb 7, 2014 7:57am Feb 7, 2014 7:57am
Quoting Spec_And
Huge NFP miss and gold tanks, sometimes I wonder why I ever bother with news releases.
for scalping maybe?
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #32,423
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:05am Feb 7, 2014 8:05am
Looks to me like a fake and failed rally. Another bull trap. Look at the long tail of the H4 candle. This has been the third consecutive day. What's next?

Undecided, so I am still sidelined.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #32,424
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:11am Feb 7, 2014 8:11am
Quoting spinozagr
{quote} for scalping maybe?
Not sure what this has to do with scalping? My point was that news is largely irrelevant, the price action today is good proof of that.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,425
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:21am Feb 7, 2014 8:21am
I am now almost convinced that the commodity market is manipulated by groups pf people that i do not know of. imagine such a bad news for dollar and gold rose a bit and fell drastically.
  • #32,426
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:25am Feb 7, 2014 8:25am
Quoting chuna1985
I am now almost convinced that the commodity market is manipulated by groups pf people that i do not know of. imagine such a bad news for dollar and gold rose a bit and fell drastically.
All markets are rigged, including fx and stocks. Look at US stock futures, ripping higher on such a huge miss.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,427
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:30am Feb 7, 2014 8:30am
Yes, I think so, too.
But you, knowing that, should be more crafty than them...

I'm thinking that these Big Boys want to bring down GOLD.

3 pin bars in 3 days....
I think that next week we will go hardly down....


Quoting chuna1985
I am now almost convinced that the commodity market is manipulated by groups pf people that i do not know of. imagine such a bad news for dollar and gold rose a bit and fell drastically.
If you do not know who you are, the Forex is the worst place to find you
  • #32,428
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:40am Feb 7, 2014 8:40am
Quoting chuna1985
I am now almost convinced that the commodity market is manipulated by groups pf people that i do not know of. imagine such a bad news for dollar and gold rose a bit and fell drastically.
I think it's good news for USD though..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 10 KB


NFP is better than last month (but lower than usual)
Unemployment dropped from 6.7% to 6.6%
Average Hourly Earnings is better than last month as well.
  • #32,429
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:35am Feb 7, 2014 9:35am
Quoting dric
{quote} I think it's good news for USD though.. {image} NFP is better than last month (but lower than usual) Unemployment dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% Average Hourly Earnings is better than last month as well.
The numbers are crap. Fed fund futures and treasuries wouldn't have rallied if those were good numbers. I suspect some big boys might have positioned themselves wrongly before the NFP release, all that manipulation was just to let them get out.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #32,430
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:48am Feb 7, 2014 9:48am
Quoting dric
{quote} I think it's good news for USD though.. {image} NFP is better than last month (but lower than usual) Unemployment dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% Average Hourly Earnings is better than last month as well.
I think it's the time for short now.
  • #32,431
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:49am Feb 7, 2014 9:49am
Quoting dric
{quote} I think it's good news for USD though.. {image} NFP is better than last month (but lower than usual) Unemployment dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% Average Hourly Earnings is better than last month as well.
It's pretty grim mate.

NFP was WAY below forecast and closer to the last abysmal number than the forecast.

Unemployment rate REMAINS HIGH and Basically unchanged which means NO progress is being made. POOR......
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,432
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:52am Feb 7, 2014 9:52am
From an undisclosed PM -

"hello xt sir
how are you.the thread misses you.earlier you use to post so much and now its only once in a while you share knowledge with us.day before you had posted long again target 1268 today or maybe tomorrow.time has already elapsed.are we still looking for this target"

Sorry I didn't see this until today.

I was on break for a bit from posting, need to take those every now and again.

Yes the target remained and was hit this morning around 830 AM EST. In profit and lower than the high to ensure fill.

Hope you took the trade!


XT-
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,433
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:57am Feb 7, 2014 9:57am
Possible?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Ro IMRAN Ro
  • #32,434
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:00am Feb 7, 2014 10:00am
Quoting dric
{quote} I think it's good news for USD though.. {image} NFP is better than last month (but lower than usual) Unemployment dropped from 6.7% to 6.6% Average Hourly Earnings is better than last month as well.

It's always helpful to look at last months data, but keep in mind the traders and investors are LOOKING to BEAT the FORECASTS. WHich usually are pretty much the same. Likewise a .1 drop in unemployment is squat.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,435
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:01am Feb 7, 2014 10:01am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} It's pretty grim mate. NFP was WAY below forecast and closer to the last abysmal number than the forecast. Unemployment rate REMAINS HIGH and Basically unchanged which means NO progress is being made. POOR......
sorry, as a biginner,
Since Unemployment is better, could we asume the people who are searching for job is lower thats why NFP is lower, means the economy is in progress?
  • #32,436
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:03am Feb 7, 2014 10:03am
Quoting datdle
{quote} I think it's the time for short now.
Disagree, to target what? It already dropped from the News High all the way back to baseline and is now rising and at least 50% up on today's small swing.

It will either rise again to test 1270 or bob around and fizzle out the Friday around 1265.

You missed the nice day trade long and short already.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,437
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:05am Feb 7, 2014 10:05am
Quoting Steve J
An elementary question: why are the previous results for the non-farm payrolls not tallying to the actual results when viewed? If one goes to the home page of FF we see tabulated: Actual Forecast Previous Jan 10 2014 74K 196K 241K Dec 06 2013 203K 180K 200K Why isn't the December "Actual" figure 241K?
Because like it says you were likely cutting and pasting
an ACTUAL - Forecast - Previous
-- 1000 -----2000 ---- 1000 for example
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,438
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:09am Feb 7, 2014 10:09am
Quoting chuna1985
I am now almost convinced that the commodity market is manipulated by groups pf people that i do not know of. imagine such a bad news for dollar and gold rose a bit and fell drastically.

News trading usually works that way, there is a drop a rise then a correction then a slight trend emerges for the day after the noise stops.


For anticipation of Positive news it would be a Rise a drop then a rise and correction / trending slightly.

If unemployment was worse than unchanged for the most part the swing would have been at least 20 USD which still isn't that big for gold / US news days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,439
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:14am Feb 7, 2014 10:14am
Quoting Jamil7354
Possible? {image}
What are you asking? confused
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #32,440
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:04am Feb 7, 2014 11:04am
Quoting XTrade
{quote} It's always helpful to look at last months data, but keep in mind the traders and investors are LOOKING to BEAT the FORECASTS. WHich usually are pretty much the same. Likewise a .1 drop in unemployment is squat.
Hi XT!

Finally you're back!

I do have some concerns whether "Previous month data VS This month (Actual) data" or "Forecast VS This month (Actual) data" weighs more in terms of direction and momentum. What do you think based from your experience?

Also, I wonder why the unemployment rate went down with such poor employment data coming out like December data? I was actually expecting a rise in unemployment rate..

Advance thanks to your feedback!

Regards,
dric
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