XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

its business as usual : some say bear, some say bull ...... what will it be ????

http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...n-session.html neutral untill we see the breakout of the 8H candle

Biting the bullet to get us some piece of the action: As mentioned in my last post: the charts seeme to have morphed into a much more bearish looking setup. I'd prefer to get in now with a tight stop on 15M chart. If the close of the current bar is an engulfer down I get in. If it turns out to become an inside bar, I put a sell stop below it the next 15 minutes. That is unless my original stop sell doesn't get hit before. I am going to put my stop at 1273.60 USD which is pretty tight but at this moment I like to keep the market on a short leash considering the fact entering here is not ideal. The good entry would have been around 1286. Can't turn back the clock though.

UPDATE: still waiting for that bearish signal to show up on the 15M

http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/

hope this was more in line of your whishes Xtrade ?
The archer: I am going to try to include more charts, it's a rather time consuming process to put these in a blog ... I'll keep it in mind though. Sometimes I put them in after my post as I like to get the message out first.

I like your blog, very detailed and easy to understand. Keep up the good work.

+1 Rep for you. Will vouch for you if I am able to.

thanks

I finally got into a long in the end at 1275.80 since the 15M morphed in the end after all, stop at 1270.75 and hoping we can soon move that to a safer place.

update chart
after hitting my last target of hitting 1272.. now i think its time for upward
dont sell until breakout downward
safe trading

I had a long too at 1276 based on my chart yesterday.

GL to our trade.

Gold is still looking weak. I don`t see anything interesting on my charts.

GM - intersting posts overnight from XTrade .....as I can see from my daily range indicators, the range continues to narrow - now ~$18 vs $22 earlier in the month and so I continue to bank quickly - here some $2.20 before the London Open, since then I have been trading € and cable....

as you can see there has been quite some morphing at last minute going on in the charts these last few hours. This makes me (while bullish) also extremely carefull here ... untill proven differently I am going to stay with my position for a while. If proof shows up to the contrary I might get short. We are really at crossroads here for bulls and bears. Not exactly the easiest of markets. At this point in time I'd like to see something bearish on my 15M that rolls over into a 2H signal. For the moment 15M isn't showing anything bearish (yet ?) the only thing I see there are bullish signals for now. It's bullish but fragile.
For a maybe longer explanation how this might turn into something really bullish. Read this: http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/...ek-what-do.html I like to call it my Madame Soleil scenario since a lot of things still have to happen before it can come true.
At this point in time, we have got an 8 H ib situated to the right a first 8H inside bar (since this hasn't closed yet it can still morph into something totally else ! BEWARE), the daily would have to roll over, into a weekly signal above the doji pinbar there. That would make the monthly bullish too. So in my eyes this is a very important crossroad. Something tiny might happen however and make us throw the whole above scenario in the wastebin. But for now it's a long untill proven otherwise.
At this point in time I keep looking for short signals to disprove my long scenario on the 15M ....
http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...rphing-at.html

we need a nice bullish, otherwise

Starting with Benjamin Bernanke's talk, the next 2 days of data is going to provide much impetus for market moves. Will it be directional or a washing machine with much churning and no progress? I also have a bullish bias as per my charts from Sunday. However, I don't discount Gold making a sudden LL for the week just because it can. I would prefer a steady upward progression from here but there is just too many conflicting signals to be sure of sustained direction.

I had nothing in my charts (that I could see) indicating this correction down from 128x to 127x. That is disconcerting and I stretched my acc margin to the max to ride it out, but another leg down would see me out of the market until PA's intentions become clearer.

the 2H chart gave some sneaky signals (that I totally overlooked myself) in the tiny range around 1287-1294, they got confirmed by the breaking of the inside bar on the 8H chart. Overal pretty hidden action if you didn't know too well what to look for or if you got somehow distracted or somehow got too cocky with a one-directional view. I admit guilty regarding the two last parts of this.

must admit, i became complacent in my bullish expectation... just reviewing my charts to find the giveaway and in the process lost bullish conviction too! Although positioned long, there is no reason to rule out continuation of this downtrend. SL set at 1269.50 (the most recent low)

My daily analysis of gold:

Should it break lower than 1270.52, it's going south to try out support at around 1261.36. If it breaks that early 1260's level, then we can almost certainly expect it to drop a lot further, but we don't know how deep that rabbit hole goes. Some speculate as deep as 800. These moves are possible over the next 2 to 21 days. Signs are showing that there is a strong inclination for the S&P to drop out the sky like a giant hailstone at some point because we are near the ALL TIME HIGH of the markets in a recession, so when it cools off, watch out: gold could easily follow that same suit and leave many without stops looking for their nearest bankruptcy lawyer.

AS QUIET AS THE MARKET IS, WE ARE GOING TO SEE MOVEMENT TODAY. The question is whether we will spot the signs that we are going with the move or against it. Since there is no accurate forecast for trading the future movements, we can only expect to guess direction correctly 48.7% of the time. That being said, you have to ask why only less than 0.5% of investors actually manage to consistently get the direction right over a ten year period. (http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...vices-industry). I guess that people just get stuck in the idea that their way is right, which is wrong. Trading the markets is like Schrödinger's cat in quantum theory. The successful trade being like his theoretical cat. This is not a "How not to kill the cat" idea, but a way to breed cats and thereby increase the chances of a successful population. Statistically you will likely trade and be successful occasionally, but the house always wins. To beat the house you have to get out while you're up and stay out. I hope this clears up misconceptions about planetary data affecting the value of gold. Unless Jupiter realeases it's supply of gold via meteorite collision that creates a massive ratioactive collapse of subatomic structure and then lands on earth in sufficient quantities, I would discount palnetary data as being as false as finest gold is pure: 99.9999%.

NOTE VERY WELL:
Obviously there are a lot of variables about that that are intriguing and correlated beyond gold, but there's no space for that in this missive. The cautionary tale you NEED to watch out for is the same behaviour between Euro, USD, Yen S&P, and Gold all going south at the same time. When that happens, you know it's time to go short on nearly everything. When they all start showing identical behaviour in the same direction you will know what is about to happen.

There is data to back this up, but space limits that here in a forum: think of Thesis level of detail and Masters/Doctoratre level of study and several whitepapers over decades from Cambridge, Oxford and MIT and Harvard grauates (some who are now biodegraded).

the overall technical picture is definitely not (yet ?) improving here ... can it pull some kinda stunt ... if not there is the stop to get me out ...

Technical picture clear as mud. Midday update.

The technical picture is clear as mud here at this moment. The case for the bulls is not exactly improving overall, on the contrary we seem to get more proof that it's breaking down. All it did here was casue more confusion and throwing sand in the eyes of bulls. As we write my stop just got hit and I reversed to short at 1270.70. Keeping losers small and hoping we get a bigger winner soon in this ugly invironment here as and when we break out of this range. I got the stop in at 1276 for now.

http://localsfoolsgold.blogspot.be/2...ud-midday.html

I believe as though there is somebody moving the market against the psychology of most traders. My feeling is the market went down to where most stops are positioned for those going long, like me. My stop was just hit at 1269.50. Having done that, the market might probably go up now against the bearish. !!! This is like a dirty war !!

Open quote... ... close quote.

I however believe that most traders are going against themselves by believing their own views and the views of others. The market tells you everything you need to know to trade it successfully. As soon as you feel the need to ask someone their opinion, you are telling yourself you don't know and therefore should not be trading at that time. Simple. Trade. Laws:

The don'ts
1. When in doubt, don't.
2. When you need advice, don't.
3. Not at High or Low, don't.
4. Rangebound, don't
5. Emotion is high, don't.
6. If time elapsed is too great, then you are looking at wrong chart time-frame.

The do's:
1. When sure, wait 2 candles
2. When you don't need advice, be careful.
3. At high or low of day, consider.
4. Not rangebound, trade.
5. no emotion, safer.
6. see the don'ts.

ha, this seems very much so at times. No point in fooling myself though: I missed the nice juicy short at 1286. Missing that forced me into a rather difficult position, thus the last two wrong trades. Things should get better again from now on. Next important point is around 1260 USD. Bears are in full force mode.