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XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

  • #22,441
  • Jan 20, 2013 12:05am Jan 20, 2013 12:05am
sliver bullish on long term.
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #22,442
  • Edited 7:25am Jan 20, 2013 6:43am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting XTrade
There is also a lot of forgetting about this important and lengthy rising TL usually seems to be left out from most charts posted.
Look at how the price cupped right in at the cross of the two. At the actual cross the bar was indecisive and we turned back up. To me this is looking like the beginning of a new minor trend in the larger trend returning up.
But we shall see.
great TL observation, I 2nd the motion and wait on jan. close for confirmation.
Those that have been working the range and those waiting to go leveraged I'm sure thank you for the heads up.
  • #22,443
  • Jan 20, 2013 10:36am Jan 20, 2013 10:36am
Quoting geniusztc
sliver bullish on long term.
based on what ?
  • #22,444
  • Jan 20, 2013 10:55am Jan 20, 2013 10:55am
Quoting TheArcher
based on what ?
also very bullish longterm

Price will rise with physical shortage
Industrial demand is rising (sure there are applications which will be substituted with another metal if possible like chopper),
Mintsales rise ervery year, just look at total mintage American Eagles, Philharmoniker... i have no numbers for bars.

Supply & demand

Sorry, donīt know from which source the picture is.
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just do it
  • #22,445
  • Edited 11:52am Jan 20, 2013 11:41am | Edited 11:52am
Hi all,

Here i share some graphs that i worked on...

IMO gold can find support @1680-75 area which i see on H1 (100EMA),H4 (200EMA),Daily(200EMA),Weekly(50MVA)

If the prices crush the 1675 then i guess it can fall down to 1640 at first..(weekly trendline)

But if 1680-75 support take the command then prices can go up to 1750 weekly upperline.. (if can break 1700-10 area)

And i examined the resistances can be;

1695,1700,1710..

So i'll take a look at those areas tomorrow to jump in.

There is a one question i'd like to ask..

Looking for a confirmation on H1 or H4 or 5min intraday for 1680 area support (that will be an example for me)Which is more common sense to look at?

Thank you in advance.

Brother from Turkey.
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  • #22,446
  • Edited 4:37pm Jan 20, 2013 4:10pm | Edited 4:37pm
Quoting thodie
also very bullish longterm

Price will rise with physical shortage
Industrial demand is rising (sure there are applications which will be substituted with another metal if possible like chopper),
Mintsales rise ervery year, just look at total mintage American Eagles, Philharmoniker... i have no numbers for bars.

Supply & demand

Sorry, donīt know from which source the picture is.
what about investor supply???
i cant forget margemove yet...
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  • #22,447
  • Jan 20, 2013 4:42pm Jan 20, 2013 4:42pm
Well, big boys in 6 months will help gold plummet to 1500 zone. Be carefull. Just look at options. Make for this accident a limit order below some pivot or support ressistance, God knows when they will crash it, so what will be your back door escape.
  • #22,448
  • Jan 20, 2013 5:33pm Jan 20, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Well, big boys in 6 months will help gold plummet to 1500 zone. Be carefull. Just look at options. Make for this accident a limit order below some pivot or support ressistance, God knows when they will crash it, so what will be your back door escape.
Care to explain your reasons?

I think the ranks of those monitoring PM markets have grown considerably. Lots of buyers with few sellers. I know people who have placed $100 million trades with not so much as a blip in terms of price movement, so it would take a gargantuan amount of money to bring the price of gold that far.

You are right - the banksters can ultimately manipulate prices as they please, but I would imagine rate hikes or some kind of economic crash would be the likely justification. Hard to imagine they will knock down the price to that extent with no apparent reason. If gold were in a bubble, it would have come down much harder in September 2011. But because it is still in demand, and because countries are more concerned with importing more gold than selling their existing reserves, I am not sure why the price would crash (another economic crash, war with Iran, sudden/unexpected rate hikes notwithstanding).
  • #22,449
  • Jan 20, 2013 8:37pm Jan 20, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting vaidas7777
Well, big boys in 6 months will help gold plummet to 1500 zone.

is this for a fact ?

what is ur source of this information ?
  • #22,450
  • Jan 20, 2013 11:42pm Jan 20, 2013 11:42pm
Psychological area being reached for XAG/USD as I type this, like last Friday. Price is reaching down to the opening price around 31.87 Will we see many long positions from there ... like last Friday? Hehe
  • #22,451
  • Edited 2:29am Jan 21, 2013 1:40am | Edited 2:29am
Quoting Wheels
I am not sure why the price would crash (another economic crash, war with Iran, sudden/unexpected rate hikes notwithstanding).
War in Iran would be on average PM price positive as it will increase USG fiscal deficit and debt faster, and reduce the trust in the USG treasury based international fiat monetary system, and this reduction is what drives the gold price. Gold price is proportional to loss of trust in the USD. That was so in 1970 ties (basically due to inflation) , and is again now ( basically due to accumulating fiscal deficits= debt). The gains in share of USD oil trade will not offset this. As was war in Iraq and Afghanistan for the same reasons.

Economic crash might be very short term PM negative if there is liquidity crunch, but with bank excess reserves now in 1,6 trillion might be not so severe. As such, economic crash is PM positive as it reduces USG revenue.

Interest rate increase might be PM negative but on balance it also increases USG debt payments so increases fiscal deficit so it has to be a mighty one to really affect gold.

There is not much but there are things in CB, government arsenal to disrupt the raise in PM prices, e.g. prudent fiscal policy, growth = fiscal deficit reduction as share of GDP, default on debt ( e.g. on FED) =debt reduction, actions to raise the monetary value of USD backing assets, of which there are 5 of them,and not all are posible now, and some exclude each other, but demand for USA military protection is definitely one that has been undervalued due to lack of enough tension in the world. Also, the USD denominated assets including loans no creditor will be willing to sacrifice without getting something back. And there are trillions of these all over the world, 50 trillion in domestic USA loans alone. So large scale selling of USD denominated finacial assets is unlikely as it will drive the price of these assets down too steeply, such amounts can not be absorbed by any other currency without pushing it into the sky and destroying corresponding countries/bloc economy.

Quote
First, nearly all commodities are priced and settled in dollars. Much international trade is invoiced in U.S. dollars, even when the United States is not the source or destination of the goods or services involved in the transaction.
Second, the United States has the largest, most liquid and most transparent financial markets in the world.
Third, many countries, including several with significant international reserves, rely on the U.S. for military protection.
Fourth, certain mercantilist economies rely on the U.S. as a destination for their exports. These countries manage their exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in order to keep domestic costs low, thereby accumulating large dollar reserve balances.
Finally, since a high proportion of the external liabilities of many countries are U.S. dollar-denominated, holding reserves as dollars is a form of asset-liability matching.


  • #22,452
  • Jan 21, 2013 1:53am Jan 21, 2013 1:53am
Quoting prototip
what about investor supply???
i cant forget margemove yet...
thatīs the question, but one big supply is missing in the picture above - recycling now and in the future...

http://www.rohstoff-welt.de/news/artikel.php?sid=27594

Quote:
Reprocessed silver accounts for a share of about 30% of total global silver deposit. The more assets people in emerging countries is available, the more often they replace their electrical appliances. The electronics industry is the industry with the highest recycling rate in the range of silver.

Promoted from mines 2010 a total of 667 million ounces of silver in the world and thus 14.5 million ounces over the previous year.
just do it
  • #22,453
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:21am Jan 21, 2013 2:21am

  1. Goldman Forecasts Gold Rally Amid Debt-Ceiling Confrontation
  2. Oil Drops From Four-Month High Before U.S. Debt Ceiling Talks
  3. Copper Gains for Third Day as U.S. Housing Starts Beat Forecast

  • #22,454
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:23am Jan 21, 2013 2:23am
GOLD
Markets
Gold advanced toward a one-month high on expectations for more stimulus Spot gold up 0.4 % to 1,691.50
, and was at $1,690.10 in Asian hours . (one-month high of $1,696.28 on Jan. 17.) Gold February up 0.2 % to $1,690.10 .Silver up as 0.8 % to $32.11 (one-month high of $32.1225 on Jan. 18,) and traded at $31.98. Silver is up for a sixth day, Spot platinum advanced 0.6 % to $1,679.75 , while palladium slipped 0.2 % to $720.75 .
  • #22,455
  • Jan 21, 2013 2:23am Jan 21, 2013 2:23am
Quoting Pluvius
Psychological area being reached for XAG/USD as I type this, like last Friday. Price is reaching down to the opening price around 31.87 Will we see many long positions from there ... like last Friday? Hehe
Being first day of the week, its hard to find many long position at this point and today being a holiday in US, i dont think we will see many long position.However if price reachs 31.32, i would like to buy at tht point. 31.32 being 200 days moving average in 4hr chart.
  • #22,456
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:16am Jan 21, 2013 3:16am
Keeping training on forks. This is a bit more conservative fork I have seen used for downtrend. I expect it to lead to a bottom around FOMC/January NFP , after few days down (31,7?) and than up still this week (32,5?) , crossing on the downside with the uptrend support at around 30,4 on Feb 1, then switching back to uptrend February being good month for silver usually. From recent history, there seems to be a possibility of a similar spike below support line, below 30 to about 29,6 one that happened to 29,25.

Sorry for the green lines. The do not mean anything, got in form another time scale i wanted to keep intact.



http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/7...servativef.png
  • #22,457
  • Jan 21, 2013 5:20am Jan 21, 2013 5:20am
still holding my long from 1671. wanna take this one all the way up.....! provided price does not rebound at the 150 ma on the daily.

off to work tomorrow, so wont be posting here that often (not that i actually posted that often ! ).

if i see a high probability setup , i will let you all know.



will keep long open , stop @ BE now.

will scalp on the short side if good oppurtunities arise.

good trading to all........
  • #22,458
  • Jan 21, 2013 3:35pm Jan 21, 2013 3:35pm
the key, to be always ready , which is inpossible, accepting reality, the first step, change your self, changing your needs... is your prototip...
  • #22,459
  • Edited 6:06pm Jan 21, 2013 5:51pm | Edited 6:06pm
Quoting lilpip
Looking @ silver on the yearly .
In 2011 unlike the previous year pushing up from the yearly pivot she found support @ the quarterly pivot 26.34 pushing up and breaking out from yearly highs $34.60 hitting the 51 area, rotating back and dropping below 34.60 which brings us to Jan.1 2012 the new yearly timeframe.
Off the top of my head I cant help to think that the banks have enough room to move and maintain control with there manipulation so unlike the previous 2 years Im hesitant of another yearly breakout
single year
$46.35
34.49
22.63
Keeping a pulse on the primary trend.
Looking back at 2012 for the most part she stayed south of the single year pivot area 34.49-60.
She gave an opportuninty to get orders in at 2011 lows $26.34 area both physical and paper.

Going forward in the new single yearly timeframe 2013 the single year pivot is the 31.33 area with her move through she says shes ready to go as it is bulls above.
Sis has been waiting above her yearly pivot 1665-67 .

Will be waiting on her confermation at the upcoming wkly/monthly close.
Liked to see silver on the otherside of 32.02-09 area as that is the 3 year pivot.
  • #22,460
  • Edited Jan 22, 2013 9:14am Jan 21, 2013 10:54pm | Edited Jan 22, 2013 9:14am
Short term 1 h chart fork looking to move back up to median in few days ( 32,6-33) before going back down to daily support line in end of January ( see my post 3 posts above -30,4 one strong resistance level,might be overshot downwards) :


http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/2...forkmoveup.png
Confirmed in a way by daily GSR pitchfork as it moves to median:

http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/5...ge2gsrfork.png
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