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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #161
  • Jul 29, 2011 7:55am Jul 29, 2011 7:55am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some chart-notes about Swiss Franc. Index
Previous charts.

The red-☒ is the first bearish-turn level.

The violet-☒ is the second bearish&structural-turn level.




Alert on Forex-War, ➌.☢.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Forestiero-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #162
  • Aug 1, 2011 1:43am Aug 1, 2011 1:43am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Breadth Indicators.
The chart is the Zweig Breadth Indicator in monthly frame (FreeStockChat source) and ema-format (indicator in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market, as S&P1500, or Wilshire-5k).

The indicator shows some graphical elements negative for underlying stocks-market, as follows:
* Tops 2009/2010/2011 in descending-array, in divergence vs. underlying;
* Prices below mid-line or 50-level (negative sign for stocks);
* Prices toward yellow binary level (important markers for some big sell-off of stocks-market)
Tuned on the divergences and negative elements signaled.


Alert on breadth & sentiment data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Spesso&Dhuro-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #163
  • Aug 1, 2011 2:56am Aug 1, 2011 2:56am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Breadth Indicators.
The chart is the 26-weeks High/Low r-spread Indicator in monthly frame (FreeStockChat source) and ema-format (indicator in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market, as S&P1500, or Wilshire-5k).
Previous similar study.

The indicator shows some graphical elements negative for underlying stocks-market, as follows:
* Tops 2009/2010/2011 in descending-array, in divergence vs. underlying;
* Prices below mid-line or 50-level (negative sign for stocks);
* Prices toward 25-level (important markers for some big sell-off of stocks-market)
Tuned on the divergences and negative elements signaled.


Alert on breadth & sentiment data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Spesso&Dhuro-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #164
  • Aug 1, 2011 3:49am Aug 1, 2011 3:49am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Breadth Indicators.
The chart I is the percentage of NYSE stocks above its 200 simply moving average indicator, in monthly frame (FreeStockChat source) and ema-format.
The chart II is the comparative chart between % of NYSE stocks above its 50 and 200 simply moving average indicator, in weekly frame (StockChat source) and weekly-close format.
Indicators are in phase vs. U.S. stocks-market, as S&P1500, or Wilshire-5k).

The indicator shows some graphical elements negative for underlying stocks-market, as follows:
CHART (big) I
* Tops 2009/2010/2011 in descending-array, in divergence vs. underlying;
* Prices below (for the II time) to red descending-line from 2004-top (negative sign for stocks; see 2005/2006 structure);
* Prices toward 50 or mid-level (important markers for some big sell-off of stocks-market).
Tuned on the divergences and negative elements signaled.
CHART (small) II
* A structural sell-sign is in the first circle (2010: red-line < green-line or bearish-array);
* Tops 2009/2010/2011 are descending-array for both curves, in divergence vs. underlying;
* A second structural sell-sign is in the second circle (2011: both curve below 50 or mid-line and in bearish array);
*It 'important to note that in 2009 the array the two curves has been super-bullish at the top (red > green). In 2010 we had a first top (in spring) of equity between the two curves, and a second one (in autumn) certainly bullish (red > green), although lower than the previous 2009. In 2011, the top is currently marked by a reversed position of the two curves (red < green). This phenomenon could be an anticipatory sign for a bearish turn in this year ???
Tuned on the divergences and negative elements signaled.


Alert on breadth & sentiment data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Spesso&Dhuro-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #165
  • Aug 2, 2011 2:17pm Aug 2, 2011 2:17pm
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Shipping Indicators.
The charts below shows an impressiv bearish-array of shipping sector, both for BDI and for some Chinese benchmarks.
http://www.statsweeper.com/graphs/ti...ess=1311977008
http://www.statsweeper.com/graphs/ti...ess=1311632655
http://www.statsweeper.com/graphs/ti...ess=1311639878
http://www.statsweeper.com/graphs/ti...ess=1311875922

Alert on Shipping sector.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Sheeps-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
  • #166
  • Aug 5, 2011 10:08am Aug 5, 2011 10:08am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Macro-Economic Data: Some Sincretic Indicators.

These charts are very interesting in order to know the real status of U.S. family.
In the chart I we can see a sky-rocket of spread in 1997/2007: family income in hard decreasing-array but home price (for family) in strong bullish-array (a misery status for the next 5 years: 2008/2012 ???).
Infact the Misery Indicator (CPI + Unempl.) shows (charts II, III) a pyroclastic bull from 2000, and now it is weel above previous '80 tops !!!
These indicators shows a very dangerous set of data for the U.S. consumers.
If these curves do not stop the growth phase, can cause an epic sinergic-collapse of consumptions.


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/...ome_income.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/...ndex_short.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/...conf_index.png
Alert on Macro-Data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
  • #167
  • Edited Aug 7, 2011 10:49am Aug 6, 2011 6:08pm | Edited Aug 7, 2011 10:49am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Notes about CBOE Volatility Indicators.

In the following charts there are some special indicators volatility-based.
In the first mega-chart there are the seasonal curves of variour benchmarks.
We can see that the equity indexes now have a bullish increases (statistically) of volatility, from june to october about (red-diamonds).
This pattern is in according to the pattern of seasonal volatility of €/US$, ¥/US$, SwF/US$ (high volatility, bear on first currency and bull on the second one).
This pattern is partially in according vs. metals and oil.
According to seasonal volatility curves, the high volatility observed in this period on stocks market, is a natural and cyclical market-behaviour.

In the chart II there is the r-spread between cash-volatility vs. 3mo. volatility on S&P500.
High value of curve have an increasing-impact on the stress of financial markets.
Main graphical elements are:
- hard divergence (red-square) between S&P500 tops (2010 vs. 2011 in ascending-array) vs. indicator lows (in ascending-array); a negative sign in mid-term;
- the indicator curve is inside the yellow band of great instability of stocks-market; above this level there is a melt-down area for underlying;
- the pattern of 2011 shows new tops in august and new high at 18mo., with perfect intercept with descending-line from 2008-top; above this red trend-line there is an high probability of market melt-down.
The same indicator (chart III: green curve is S&P1500 daily-close) but in daily ema-format show a monster cup 2010/2011 (gray area) in bullish validation test.
With gray column is indicated the target of this monster cup if there is a continuation-bull of indicator.
Alson in this format there is the lows divergence in 2010 vs. 2011.
A very bad structural sign (for underlying) is the in-line level of actual indicator value vs. top-2010 and mar.2009 !!!

In the chart IV there is the simple average indicator of S&P500 & Nasdaq/100 volatility.
Also for this there is a bullish-cap in progress (gray-area), with an ascending pattern of curve, and graphical target as gray column.
Prices are well above 20 daily sma (very bad sign for underlying).

In the chart V there is the r-spread (in ema-format daily) between S&P100 (more aggressive) vs. S&P500 volatility indicator.
There are the same cup-structure (see the monster target !!!) and the divergence of 2011 lows.
The cup validation in bullish status is OK?!?
The descending rectangle has bull-crossed in june 2011 and the target is in according to cup !!!

In the chart VI there is the inverse (as scale) daily CBOE S&P500 Volatility Transformation Indicator that measures the distance of the 10-day VIX simple moving average from the 200-day VIX simple moving average, then transforms that data to correct for the skew inherent in such readings.
The statistics behind the indicator are not particularly important, but the concept is - when the VIX gets to the +10% level, it is oversold (and the market overbought) in a statistically meaningful way. Conversely, a reading below the -10% level suggests the VIX is overbought (and the market oversold).
The indicator is in full descending-test of target-area for a bullish-burn of underlying.
But the previous big bearish legs (see red-square) have a complex pattern of zig-zag above and below the -15 line (red).
For this reason there is an high probability that the bearish structure of underlying is not completed, but a short-term turn in bullish status it probable.

A new volatility indicator is the City Volatility Total Return. Also for this there is a cup (small) in bullish validation and with target above the key-level of feb-2011 lows.
This target push the indicator above the descending structural rectangle at 8mo. frame (bad sign for underlying).


Notes
All these indicators shows very negative signs in mid-long-term for the underlying, and some graphical figures have an hard bearish impact if goes at targets.
All these indicators shows important bullish-array of curve until critical level for the underlyings; this can cause a bullish turn inside summer (august ?), but there is a strong stress increase inside financial markets if the volatility do not go below the cup-necks illustrated.
Other studies in volatility and options are neded for a better understanding of the market-momentum.


Alert on Breadth & Sentiment Data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Volatyly-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #168
  • Aug 7, 2011 9:11am Aug 7, 2011 9:11am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Notes about CBOE Volatility Indicators.

In these charts some special CBOE volatility indicators, metal-only, based on ETF options of GLD, GDX, SLV.
All curves show important short-term turns in bullish status, with crossess of previous tops (circled-area) and cups in continuation-bull.
The volatility shows a new possible trend (secondary bearish, but not primary) in precious metals Au & Ag, as usual from seasonal charts in the previous post.
But for this reason, and for the global signs from other volatility indicators (see previous post) this maybe an alert on precious metals.


Alert on Breadth & Sentiment Data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Volatyly-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #169
  • Aug 7, 2011 11:25am Aug 7, 2011 11:25am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Notes about CBOE Volatility Indicators.

In the following charts there are other special indicators volatility-based.
The first chart (giant) is the weekly ema-format of the previous indicator '''CBOE Volatility of S&P100 vs. S&P500'''.
We can see the following graphical elements:
❣ price in full ascending test of binary neck (pink), in bull-cross attempt on daily ema format (post n.167); target of this gray-cup (or H&S) is a stress-monster for equity underlying (negative signs for stocks);
❣ a structural descending channel (red) has been bull-crossed in 2011 (attempts in 2010), with price-target toward binary-tops of 2003/2004 (negative signs for stocks);
❣ an interesting set of parallel ascending-lines has started (blue); a new bull-phase ??? (negative signs for stocks);
❣ prices are weel above 1-line (negative signs for stocks);
❣ gary-cup target break all previous graphical elements (binary-tops of 2003/2004; red-rectangle; first 2008-top) (negative signs for stocks);
❣ a double cup in progress (2003/2008 vs. 2008/20??) is very interesting for the disruptive (graphical) impact if this complex structure go at target.

The minicharts II and III are two ema-format (daily frame) r-spread between VXO & VIX vs. its 200 daily simple moving average.
These indicators shows anticipatory behaviours (see circled areas); now there are not divergence in ascending price-action (continuation-bull for the indicators ??? continuation-bear for S&P ???).
From 2009 there are important divergences among indicator lows vs. underlying tops (negative signs for stocks).
Now prices are above the critical level of +1SD, and the orange-cups shows a possible targets very dangerous in order to maintain the stability of two underlyings (see 2010-top !!!).

In the charts IV and V there are two other r-spreads, between BuyWrite vs. Volatility, both of S&P500 and Nd/100.
Prices are in full-impact on main set-up among horizontal key-levels, and primary ascending-line (from 2008-lows).
The valid bearish-break of this set-up increases the stress at high levels in underlying, with a probable mini melt-down of stocks.
The indicators shows important anticipatory behaviour (see 2008/2009); now there are not important divergences at the top levels between indicator and its underlying; there will be a new top of underlyings (> of 2011) in divergence with indicators (< 2011) ???



Alert on Breadth & Sentiment Data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Volatyly-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #170
  • Aug 8, 2011 6:21am Aug 8, 2011 6:21am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Notes about Au vs. Pt spread.

The key metal spread is (again) at incredible level (see some ETF) !!!

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/freech...6-1bb7b1c4b678
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=088691&p=w1http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=076651&p=w1
http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndDat...01&dt=20130808

Very high stress inside financial markets ???

Alert on Precious spreads.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Au-rhum-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
  • #171
  • Aug 8, 2011 8:13am Aug 8, 2011 8:13am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Notes about Au evaluation by means of 10y-Bond yield & CPI.

The d-spread between 10y T-Bond yield vs. CPI is used as a contrarian evaluator of Au.
In the first chart there is a long term view of this pattern, with red descending lines as markers for bearish reverse of gold.
In the II chart there are two version of evaluator curve: a) CPI All Items (S.Adj.) has used; b) CPI less Food & 'nrg has used (S.Adj.).
In the chart III there is a personal evaluator curve, with simple average of two CPI.
In this chart we can see:
-) the spread is in divergence vs. Au (ascending lows both in long term and in short term 2008/2011 as markers signals); not a god sign for Au main trend;
-) curve in full impact on 0-line;
-) false break of main descending line in 2010 (no good sign for Au main trend).
Au main trend is in a stopping-array phase ???
Below the 0-line (and the previous lows of 2008) there will be a sell-off of evaluator-curve (good for Au main trend).
Curve above 0-line has a negative impact about Au-main trend.

Alert on God Metal.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' Au-rhum-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #172
  • Aug 8, 2011 11:29am Aug 8, 2011 11:29am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Macro-Economic Data: Some Sincretic CPI Indicators.

In the first chart (original link) there is a comparative curve between France & Germany CPI All Items (n-S.Adj.) vs. USA CPI All Items (n-S.Adj.).
The tops of curve shows convergence vs. main lows of S&P500 (see red circles); the lows of curve shows convergence vs. main tops of S&P500 (see blue circles).
The main long term lows of curve have an ascending-array (divergence vs. S&P500 tops: bad sign in long term view); the 2008 top is the high curve-value from 1950 (divergence vs. S&P500 main lows: bad sign in long term view).
A progress of curve toward red-square markers, will cause an increase of stress in financial markets; a progress of curve toward blue square-markers, will cause a decrease of stress in financial markets.
This is the same curve for CPI All Items notFod&'nrg.

Alert on Macro-Data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #173
  • Aug 9, 2011 3:54am Aug 9, 2011 3:54am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some charts about previous recent hard bear phases.



Alert on History Bear Channel.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ Bear-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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  • #174
  • Aug 9, 2011 8:19am Aug 9, 2011 8:19am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Comparative charts 1987 vs. 2011 (Nasdaq Composite).
Comparative charts between Nasdaq Composite status in 1987 and in 2011 vs. Au/Pt spread.
See also previous post.
Alert on History Bear Channel.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ Bear-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/freech...6-1bb7b1c4b678http://www.infomine.com/ChartsAndDat...01&dt=20130808
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...2&d=1294665414
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #175
  • Aug 10, 2011 10:53am Aug 10, 2011 10:53am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some indicators of Financial Stress.

These charts shows some yield d-spread between multi-yearly U.S.-TBonds vs. 3mo., In order to evaluate the cash increase allocated in short-term safe harbor (Pearl ???).
These indicators are about contrarian to U.S. stocks-market main trend.
The underlying stocks-benchmarks maybe searched inside these ETF and its underlying benchmarks (charts & notes):
ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW.
Previous study: n.20; n.21; n.22; n.23; n.24; n.26; n.27; n.30; n.35; n.36; n.37; n.221.

These charts shows the following graphical elements:
-) bearish-array of curves in short-term from 2011 top (positive for stocks);
-) divergence between indicators lows 2010/2011 vs underlying tops (negative for stocks);
-) great divergence between main lows of indicators (2000/2007/2008) vs. main tops of underlyings (negative for stocks);
-) about symmetric structure in the III, IV and V charts like an H&S bullish and in progress (dx-shoulder in building phase), with an impressive bullish target (negative for stocks).

Note about stress
According to these indicators the financial stress is decreasing in short-term but the actual levels are the same of 2002/2003 phase !!!
It is very important the break of previous lows (2010/2003/2002), for an increase of stability of stocks-market.
A validation (in long-term) of di H&S bullish-beast will cause a melt-down of financial markets.


1Y vs. 3mo.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10
2Y vs. 3mo.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10
5Y vs. 3mo.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10
20&10Y vs. 3mo.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10
30Y vs. 3mo.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10

Alert on the stress.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ K€$☂€§§-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
  • #176
  • Aug 10, 2011 3:00pm Aug 10, 2011 3:00pm
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some indicators of Financial Stress.

These charts shows some financial spread for the measure of liquidity stress inside markets (Previous study).
These indicators are about contrarian to U.S. stocks-market main trend.
The underlying stocks-benchmarks maybe searched inside these ETF and its underlying benchmarks (charts & notes):
ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW.

These charts shows the following graphical elements:
-) important divergence on between bottoms 2009/2010/2011 vs. tops of underlyings (negative for stocks);
-) ascending array of 2009/2010/2011 tops of indicators (negative for stocks);
-) 2011 value well above 2009 (negative for stocks).

Note about stress
According to these indicators the financial stress is in hard increasing-array in 2011 and the actual levels are obevo of of 2009 phase !!!
It is very important the bearish-break of first top of 2008, for an increase of stability of U.S. stocks-market.
Curves above this first 2008-top are a very dangerous sign for the liquidity of markets.
The price-structures of 2009/2011 is an H&S-like bullish-monster; a validation of these graphical monsters will cause a melt-down of financial markets.


r-Spread in nat.log format of 3mo Certificate of Deposit vs. 3mo Treasury Bill
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10
r-Spread in nat.log format of 3mo AA Commercial Paper Rate (Fin. and notFin.) vs. 3mo Treasury Bill
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-10_2011-08-10

Alert on the stress.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ K€$☂€§§-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
  • #177
  • Aug 11, 2011 1:38am Aug 11, 2011 1:38am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Comparative charts 1987 vs. 2011 (Nasdaq Composite). II.
Comparative charts between Nasdaq Composite status in 1987 and in 2011.
Previous: n.174; n.173.

Alert on History Bear Channel.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ ℬear-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

1987 pattern --- 2011 pattern

█ previous █
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1312895773

█ up-date █
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 510 KB
  • #178
  • Aug 11, 2011 3:46am Aug 11, 2011 3:46am
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Comparative charts 1987 vs. 2011 (Nasdaq Composite). III.
Comparative charts between Nasdaq Composite status in 1987, 1990, 2011.
Previous: n.174; n.173; n.177 and the original dec.2010 study.

Alert on History Bear Channel.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ ℬear-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

1987-1988 pattern --- 1989-1991 pattern --- 2011 pattern
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 867 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1.7 MB
  • #179
  • Aug 12, 2011 12:01pm Aug 12, 2011 12:01pm
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

۞


H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some indicators of Financial Stress.

The first two indicators are the d-spread between US-libor vs. UE-euribor at 3m. and 6mo. frame (previous study), in phase with underlying global stocks-markets (charts & notes):
ACWI; DGT; IOO; VT.
The main chart elements for the 3mo. curve, are as follows:
-) the 3mo. curve is included inside a lateral-descending rectangle, in divergence vs. stocks-market (bad sign for the underlying)
-) there are a bearish-array both in 2006/2010 and in 2010/2011, in divergence vs. stocks-market (bad sign for the underlying);
-) red price-band +/-0.25 as a marker of stocks melt-down or bullish-phases (see 2000, 2004, 2007; diamonds on 6mo.);
-) the spread now is below the binary-parallel of ascending line 2002-2004 (bad sign for the underlying);
-) the phase 2001/2002 is very similar to 2008/2009;
-) the phase 2002/2004 is significantly different to 2008/2009 (bad sign for the underlying);
-) from the III quarter of 2010 the spread has a bearish-array and now is below to lows of II quarter/2009 !
The 10y structure of spread has a evident bearish-array, in divergence vs. stocks-market; this bearish-array is more evident (as slope) in 2006/2010/2011.
Spread below the price-band +/- 0.25 b.p. (as actual phase) is negative for stocks-market (point 'a'); but prices below the binary ascending-line (as actual phase) can cause an important corrective wave (point 'b').
Spread above the descending-line from 2006 top, can cause a new important bullish leg, particularly if the spread go above the +/- 0.25 bp band.

The second two indicators shows EONIA vs. Libor, both in 3mo. frame and in 6mo.
The spread-array is contrarian to global stocks-markets and the sign change is a real marker of turn for underlying:
EONIA > Libor (as spread > 0) is a bad sign for underlying;
EONIA < Libor (as spread < 0) is a good sign for underlying.
The actual value of spread is very dangerous beacuse its value has ascending pattern from 2008, with EONIA > Libor (no real recovery during 2009/2011 ???).
Moreover the actual value are very similar to 2001/2003 liquidity melt-down (point 'c').
On long term the spread shows some very bullish signs (bearish for underlying) in the long-term and mid-term (triangle markers) divergences vs. stocks tops (point 'd') !!!


Note about stress
According to these indicators, the market shows some important signs of liquidity pre-collapse (points a b c d).
Tuned on these spreads in order to predict and prevent a possible global-monster bear.



☻/ Alert on the stress.
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ K€$☂€§§-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 884 KB
  • #180
  • Aug 12, 2011 2:46pm Aug 12, 2011 2:46pm
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

۞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some indicators of Financial Stress.

The following charts shows some special spreads between Swap Rates vs. other rates, as follows.
These indicators are about contrarian to U.S. stocks market (charts & notes):
ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW.

SWAP RATE 1y vs. Effective Federal Funds Rate
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-12_2011-08-12

SWAP RATES vs.
Treasury Constant Maturity Rate,
1y,2y,5y,10y,30y
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-12_2011-08-12

Average of SWAP RATES vs.
Treasury Constant Maturity Rate,
1y,2y,5y,10y,30y
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-12_2011-08-12

One curve of SWAP RATES vs.
Treasury Constant Maturity Rate,
short term vs. mid term, 1y,2y,5y,10y
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-12_2011-08-12

S&P500 INDEX in Nat.-Log. FORMAT
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2011-08-12

Note about stress
According to the chart I the financial stress shows a big increases, both in long term view and in short term, with a pyroclastic bullish cup in progress during 2009/2011.
Chart II shows a monster top in 2008 for all curves (bad sign for underlying) and an important short-mid-term divergence between indicators 2009/2010/2011 lows vs. underlying tops. The average curve (chart III) summarize this behaviour.
The chart IV shows the same pattern of chart I.




☻/ Alert on the stress.
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ K€$☂€§§-$0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ❣❣❣ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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