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  • #141
  • Apr 20, 2026 7:01am Apr 20, 2026 7:01am
A 2nd bounce off this TL. 2nd bounce not usually sustained unless its a strong established trend. I think we will continue lower
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  • #142
  • Apr 20, 2026 7:41am Apr 20, 2026 7:41am
Price will remain in recovery mode as long as the stock market is recovering.
Will be looking for any price failure.
Added you uptrend line to the chart.
Don't know how I missed it in the first place especially with the confluence with the support zone
Second box is the hourly SP500 chart showing price within last friday's price range
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #143
  • Apr 20, 2026 9:41am Apr 20, 2026 9:41am
Thinking this line might hold it
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  • #144
  • Apr 20, 2026 9:47am Apr 20, 2026 9:47am
Maybe something like this.
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  • #145
  • Apr 20, 2026 10:26am Apr 20, 2026 10:26am
Hi Zappa,
Price still going strong at the moment.
On the whole, so far, I have been able to make something from sells but it was tortuous and required close monitoring.
The translation is that I am fighting the current trend. See a second trend line as well.
If price breaks out of the top of the box I will take it that we might be heading much higher
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #146
  • Apr 20, 2026 10:36am Apr 20, 2026 10:36am
Hi Olu,
I could be wrong, but the move just looks too "easy" for longs. A bounce right off the TL for 2nd time, and now another bounce off a smaller TF TL. The price formation of this latest move looks too easy too. No last minute fuckery to take out easy stops or anything that would suggest we're heading higher from here.

I've got a stop at b/e now just in case, but I'm still feeling good about this trade.
  • #147
  • Apr 20, 2026 10:42am Apr 20, 2026 10:42am
Last weekends gap was followed by a similar looking drift higher to fill it....again, looks too easy for longs. Looks to me like a trap.

Of course I could be wrong. Sometimes things really are that easy, but I'm betting against it
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  • #148
  • Apr 20, 2026 11:38am Apr 20, 2026 11:38am
Quoting Zappa
Last weekends gap was followed by a similar looking drift higher to fill it....again, looks too easy for longs. Looks to me like a trap. Of course I could be wrong. Sometimes things really are that easy, but I'm betting against it {image}
I was going to comment that sometimes things can be simple
Short term price is faffing around in this structure on the smaller TF.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #149
  • Apr 20, 2026 1:28pm Apr 20, 2026 1:28pm
Im still in this...barely. Just came within $250 of hitting my b/e stop. Still not sold on this move up. Might have been a move to take out the high at 76, 250 to trigger stop losses and buy orders.

Guess I'll find out soon enough
  • #150
  • Apr 20, 2026 4:14pm Apr 20, 2026 4:14pm
Stopped at b/e. Blew that one. Had a decent profit last night too. Were some signs to TP then, but I discounted them. I think FOMO got me again, but it was a tricky one.

Im just watching now. This could go either way as far as I can tell. Maybe the picture will be clearer soon. Move up today doesn't exactly look like the start of a legendary move, but selling looks weak too. Still see risk to downside, but sellers do look exhausted. That was one of the clues I discounted too much on my short, the fact that the selling at no point look strong, just persistent. Sometimes that persistence turns into panic and energy picks up. That was what I was thinking, but not to be.
  • #151
  • Apr 20, 2026 5:28pm Apr 20, 2026 5:28pm
I just went long with a stop at 73800.
I dont plan on letting it go all the way there to be honest. If it doesn't start heading higher very soon I will probably get out early and might even reverse. Watching closey
  • #152
  • Apr 20, 2026 5:37pm Apr 20, 2026 5:37pm
The start to this move uo has looked pretty ugly. Not very strong looking, but it might turn into a big move. We're on the edge of the cliff of a breakout on long term chart. Been many fakes, but this time might be for real. The slow start on this move might be to conceal whats about to happen. One of those moves i was just talking about that looks weak but as it keeps going either fear or fomo sets in and energy picks up dramatically
  • #153
  • Apr 20, 2026 6:18pm Apr 20, 2026 6:18pm
Already out. Not the start I was looking for
  • #154
  • Apr 20, 2026 6:19pm Apr 20, 2026 6:19pm
Short again, stop at 78400
  • #155
  • Apr 20, 2026 6:30pm Apr 20, 2026 6:30pm
Indeed Zappa the price action today was amazing for bulls and I am not surprised that you went long.
I have a small short with stop now at BE.
I am targeting where your stop is - that support area.
Like you, I will not hesitate to close it and go long but targeting 80k area
Watching this like a hawk as I have a bit of time to be at the screen.
I monitor the SP500 as well and weakness will help my position
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #156
  • Apr 20, 2026 6:46pm Apr 20, 2026 6:46pm
Olu, Im short brother. That long didnt sit right with me almost immediately after opening. Then it started going against me and I bailed and reversed.

If this TL is tested again, I dont see it holding and a break could send BTC dropping like a rock. I didnt see it holding last night which is why I stayed in the short, but at end of day it has not made a new high or even closed the gap (though it did try).

Seeing some hints of strong selling. I think another test of that TL is coming next.

New lows below 60k are back in the cards in my opinion. Lets see how strong the selling is
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  • #157
  • Apr 20, 2026 7:30pm Apr 20, 2026 7:30pm
Quoting Zappa
Olu, Im short brother. That long didn't sit right with me almost immediately after opening. Then it started going against me and I bailed and reversed. If this TL is tested again, I don't see it holding and a break could send BTC dropping like a rock. I didn't see it holding last night which is why I stayed in the short, but at end of day it has not made a new high or even closed the gap (though it did try). Seeing some hints of strong selling. I think another test of that TL is coming next. New lows below 60k are back in the cards in my opinion....
Come 60k come.
Chart shows:
A massive bear flag (white lines) with price having reached the top
Immediate support at 73.6k
Supportive RSI
my bearish invalidation line at 80k
my ultimate target of 60k - I might be shaken out a few times before we get there - if we get there
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #158
  • Apr 20, 2026 9:05pm Apr 20, 2026 9:05pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Come 60k come. Chart shows: A massive bear flag (white lines) with price having reached the top Immediate support at 73.6k Supportive RSI my bearish invalidation line at 80k my ultimate target of 60k - I might be shaken out a few times before we get there - if we get there {image}
If it turns here, I think the bare minimum target would be 68k. Not a bad profit from here at all!

But i have my doubts that if we get to 68k, it will bottom out there. Might be a temporary bottom, but eventually should find its way to 65k, and I dont think it'll stop there either. That whole area on down has been thoroughly tested. Could all fall like dominoes.

After a new low though, it gets tougher to say how far down. If selling is strong maybe all the way to 40k is even in play. Too early to say right now
  • #159
  • Apr 21, 2026 4:05am Apr 21, 2026 4:05am
I just closed the short out early. Not feeling right either. On sidelines for now
  • #160
  • Apr 21, 2026 4:17am Apr 21, 2026 4:17am
Went long. Tight stop at 75500.

Feel like a big move is about to happen one direction or the other. Should've gone down by now, but its still running higher. So im giving a long another shot
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