Bitcoin trading calls

Looking like a bottom pattern, but might be one more shot down to 78700

77800 is another spot of interest.

78700 would put us very close to that TL below. Can it hold? I don't know, but I think it might.


EDIT: I meant 77800

Put a short position on, target 78500, stop 81000

Thinking might turn right here where the "easy" entry long was

Would like to see it drop to 77900 where I will buy, then reverse course and go back up with a vengeance before we head into weekend hours

If I get the entry the stop is 75k

Might be running out of time for all that though.

Moving atop to b/e on the short

That line (79.5k area) is holding...for now.
My cleanest scenario is a break and a rush for the 75k area
Price was powerfully smacked back from 82.8k and it has been near enough red candles all the way down
We have a broken channel and a support line being seriously defended.
I will short 80.8k area. This is kind of a shelf of support that I am thinking will become resistance.
My thoughts are that this strong-ish downmove needs a retracement and that is what we are seeing as support holding
Edit:
If the markets don't get there I will definitely sell a break and retest of the support line
Geopolitics will affect this market

Tough to make money in a 1000 point range.
Got stopped at b/e on the short and canceled the buy order at 77900.

Few hours until weekend. Probably a good idea to just sit this out for a few days, but we'll see. I am a filthy trading addict.

I hate payroll and FOMC days. They are the worst

I might try some scalps, but not going to post them in here. Probably better if i sit on sidelines though. Has a to be a no brainer

Just went long with stop at 78200

Told you Im an addict

Giving the long a chance here. Thinking if theres to be a gap higher it shouldn't move too far down from where CME just closed.

Sell off never had anything impulsive, Didnt go that far either. That TL below I thought it would travel too is still far away enough. Thinking now it wont go there.

Buyers still showing theyre alive. Lets see if they can get somewhere this weekend and give us bulls a big gap. 89k looking like a nice target right now. Lets see how it goes

Speaking of CME weekend gaps. I guess the bitcoin traders on there are fed up with being locked out all weekend while bitcoin is still making moves. Why they trade on CME in the first place I do not know, but Im sure theres a reason.

Anyways CME is going to 23/7 trading hours on bitcoin futures May 29th. They say its 24/7, but there is still a 1 hour maintenance close every day, so it aint 24/7, its 23/7.... get it right CME

Wonder if weekend moves away from where the other markets close on Friday will still be considered gaps

Hi Zappa, I’ve been following your analysis in the Trading Discussion community for quite some time, and I genuinely respect the way you trade. Your Gold and Bitcoin analyses are usually very accurate, but what stands out the most to me is your patience, discipline, and confidence in your setups. It feels like you don’t just predict moves randomly — there’s clearly a strong system and experience behind the way you read the market.
I’ve personally been trading for around 1.5 years now, and honestly, I still feel stuck in that phase where I win and lose equally. Sometimes I feel motivated, and other times it feels like I’m not progressing the way I should. That’s why I wanted to respectfully ask you: what is the main foundation of your trading? Do you mainly focus on price action, market structure, liquidity, fundamentals, smart money concepts, or something else? And before taking a trade, what confirmations give you the confidence that a setup is worth risking money on?
I know experience is something that takes years to build, and I’m sure your level didn’t come overnight. But as someone who is still trying to become consistently profitable and build a better future through trading, I’d genuinely appreciate any advice you think could help me grow in the right direction. Even one lesson from an experienced trader can save years of confusion for someone still finding their way.

Hello Mannnnnan, TLs and price action are most important things I watch, with PA being most important. The thing is that teaching and understanding of PA is hard to do. It comes with staring at charts for a couple decades non stop. Its from witnessing and participating in all the battles over the years in markets.

I use other tools like retracements and extensions, as well as other clues that are hard to explain. If I tried to explain it probably wouldn't mean anything to you guys. But those are not the most important anyways.

The main reason im posting on here is because I read a spiritual book and one of the messages (from God supposedly) was that we are here to serve. I am hoping my experience can help you guys. I wish I had someone to really learn from when I was younger, but seems like most of the really experienced traders didnt post much at all.

Im looking at all timeframes, drawing TLs on all of them. Im usually watching 1and 3 minute charts, but toggle them a lot. I like to look at things inverted too. For some reason I see it differently.

1.5 years might seem like a while, but its really not. If most traders know the pain and agony ive been through to get where i am now, im not sure they would want to suffer like that for that long. Its really only been the last 4 years that Ive been consistent! I had some great runs before that, but would always end up blowing it.

Always been a confident trader (over confident actually). Its a weakness and strength. Weakness because I used to ignore signs that I was wrong. Strength because I never stopped believing in myself.

Another thing that really cant be taught is a "feel" for the market. Like sometimes I will say on here, "this doesn't feel right" and exit a trade early. Thats because I literally dont feel right. I myself feel jittery and nervous. Thats a signal that im wrong and need to close.

I used to ignore those signs too, but I dont anymore. I trust them now. It just something you have to do through continuing to trade and observe market moves. Can't really teach that.

But I can teach the other things, and i haven't held back with sharing on here. Posted a lot of charts and thoughts and what im looking at.

And im still FAR from being a perfect trader. I still miss signs and I am wrong about shit all the time. But the way to still make money despite being partly wrong (you do have to be somewhat right) is by being super flexible in views. I can think its going to go to some target far away all I want, but if on the way to the target it starts looking like it will reverse, then I ditch the target and get out (and usually reverse).

With discipline....wasnt always the most disciplined trader either. Took losing my ass many many times before I fully understood how dangerous this game is. You HAVE to protect what you have. Thats rule #1. DEFENSE!

Many times I set a stop and get out well before it gets there because it just doesnt look right anymore. No need to let it stop me out. I take the loss early and move on.

My exits still need some improvement. Im still evolving as a trader myself. The overconfidence still bites me in the ass with exits because I still make the mistake of not exiting at spots when I things aren't looking exactly like they should be. The "feeling" i get is there, but not as intense because im up and dont have anything other than profit at risk. I need to be faster to react when I get those feelings and see the signs.

Its tough when you are trading early on in career and probably not trading with much money. How can you turn peanuts into something significant without risking too much on one trade? The way I did it was by going balls to the wall on a big trade, adding size along the way, and it all actually (FINALLY) working out.

It wasnt the first time I had done that, but it was the last time that I put that kind of risk on a trade. Having blown out a million times before I knew it would happen again if I didnt cut risk WAY down after that trade.

I really cant tell you how many times ive blown up an account. Too many to count. They were always funded with money I could afford to lose, but painful every time. I never wanted to trade demo because I knew I wouldn't care as much. I wanted just enough to keep me glued to the screen, but not enough to impact my life if I lost.

You can see some of the comments on my profile from other traders that were following a live trade explorer I set up on here in 2017. I started with $1,000 and got it up to around 70k if I remember correctly. Was trying to get to 250k. Well 70k was the high and then I blew it all. All happened in like 2 months!

Did that a few more times, and finally told myself if I get to 100k im getting out and never risking it all again. That finally happened and its been a grind since then. Have some months where im gaining a little ground, then BAM, I nail another big trade. Do that a few times a year and its a pretty damn good year. Sometimes its not a big trade though. Sometimes the market makes some nice swings that I catch. Like from 9/19/25 to 10/11/25 I caught a good portion of those 3 moves. Was just as good as a nailing a big trade.

You just gotta try and take what the market will give you and stay flexible, always to be in tune with what the market is telling you.

Alright back to your other questions. Structure, yes I look at for sure. But gotta be careful, because structure can look bullish one day and bearish the next. Fundamentals i dont put a lot of weight into. I dont pay much attention to news, though I do read it out of curiosity more than anything. I do notice some things though. Like when btc failed to make a new low and reversed after USA first attacked Iran. Was an interesting clue if nothing else. Or the thing Saylor said about "bitcoin has won" when it was at 65k. I found that interesting.

Liquidity, yes I look for spots where stops are. Where exactly did the market turn this time? Meaning what was going on last time it turned at the spot it did? Smart money concepts I dont even know what that is to be honest. I know the one fundamentally smart money truth though, THEY WANT YOU SELLING WHEN THEY'RE BUYING, AND THEY WANT YOU BUYING WHEN THEY'RE SELLING.

Hi, thank you so much for taking the time to explain everything in such detail. I really appreciate your honesty about both your wins and struggles. It actually gives me a lot of reality check about trading.
I understand now that price action, discipline, and flexibility are the real key factors, not just indicators or predictions. I will try to focus more on chart observation and risk control instead of rushing into trades.
Your experience about losing and rebuilding really motivated me to stay consistent and keep learning instead of giving up.
Thanks again for sharing your journey — it truly means a lot.

bro you literally gave me the shivers, from the beginning I've been cringing, I'm losing, the mind is hard to maintain, it's hard to keep face in front of my partner when you explain to her that you're starting everything from scratch for the 200th time, I thought I was alone but maybe I understand that we all go through it and that I'm not alone and it feels good that it's a 'common' process.
I must also thank you for having this state of mind of transmission, I think that nothing can pay for that except recognition and respect. I have often been confronted with people who did not share anything for reasons that I still do not understand, through this I have always sworn to myself that whoever asks me to teach them what I know and that I master I would make sure not to stop before they understood.
be good to people, life will reward you.
thank you, I hope to go a long way with you who are there.
(yes I'm too emotional)

I would say probably any good trader will have discipline and risk control at the top of their list. Price action for my style is important, but might not even be a factor for another profitable trader. Same with flexibility. For my style it is important, but for a more rigid system there might be no room for flexibility.

My way of trading is just one of many. Trading styles are almost as unique as the individuals using them. Read Market Wizards for a classic book of interviews with the top traders of the 1980s. The author did another one after that. Great books and you'll see there are many profitable ways to trade, but they are all hard to discover. And I'd say its actually more like a skill you hone than some magical discovery you find one day.