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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #201
  • Apr 22, 2026 1:40pm Apr 22, 2026 1:40pm
Quoting arnabtrading
Wave c appears to be extending, with a high probability of completing near the 1.618 Fibonacci projection level. {image}
Elliot Waves was the very first thing i tried using as a beginning trader, and I went balls deep into it! I was trading EURUSD at the time and had the market counted going back as far as the chart would go in history. Every wave on all timeframes was accounted for. I thought it was a masterpiece

I kept having to update my charts as things never seemed to go the way my count would predict. After a couple years of giving EW my best attempts to use it I gave up on it. Its just too subjective in my opinion, and even when the waves were clear it didnt seem to work. I think the final straw for me was when I counted a clear 12345 pattern. Textbook pattern, couldn't ask for anything clearer. Then not only did it completely retrace, but there ended up being a huge move in opposite direction! I said the hell with it after that and never looked back.
  • #202
  • Apr 22, 2026 1:53pm Apr 22, 2026 1:53pm
I think I have posted this weekly chart before. But added more observations

Bearish:
Sporting a bear flag like the one above which broke to the downside
resistance and invalidation line at 80k

Bullish:
Strong current candle - impulsive
Last week's high taken out
Respected downtrend line invalidated successfully
Supportive weekly RSI
Horizontal support resistance line over come

We hit a high of 79.5k today. So close to my 80k invalidation price.
NB: Apologies for the many arrows on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #203
  • Apr 22, 2026 5:34pm Apr 22, 2026 5:34pm
This battle we had here highlighted in chart was really the last stand for bears in my opinion. The bear through some big sell orders in and the bulls ate it up. Im expecting continued buying and higher prices, but for that to happen the selling we're seeing right now should be contained. If it starts looking like we might get a deeper pullback Im going to take profits and reevaluate
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #204
  • Apr 22, 2026 7:15pm Apr 22, 2026 7:15pm
I just closed for profit. On sidelines
  • #205
  • Apr 22, 2026 7:16pm Apr 22, 2026 7:16pm
Quoting Olu
I think I have posted this weekly chart before. But added more observations Bearish: Sporting a bear flag like the one above which broke to the downside resistance and invalidation line at 80k Bullish: Strong current candle - impulsive Last week's high taken out Respected downtrend line invalidated successfully Supportive weekly RSI Horizontal support resistance line over come We hit a high of 79.5k today. So close to my 80k invalidation price. NB: Apologies for the many arrows on the chart {image}

You might be right Olu on bearish case.
  • #206
  • Apr 22, 2026 7:23pm Apr 22, 2026 7:23pm
Such a tricky market. Goes from looking looking no brainer to complete opposite in a just a couple hours
  • #207
  • Apr 22, 2026 7:25pm Apr 22, 2026 7:25pm
And maybe im overreacting by closing that long, but ive had too many trades in good profit lately get erased. Not letting that happen on this one
  • #208
  • Apr 22, 2026 9:05pm Apr 22, 2026 9:05pm
Im trying a short here with s stop at today's high
  • #209
  • Apr 22, 2026 9:19pm Apr 22, 2026 9:19pm
Target at 60k

I think i see whats going on now. Well maybe I do anyways.

If im right it'll be a violent move down to 60k and then might make a bottom around 58k.
  • #210
  • Apr 23, 2026 4:57am Apr 23, 2026 4:57am
Quoting Zappa
And maybe i'm overreacting by closing that long, but ive had too many trades in good profit lately get erased. Not letting that happen on this one
You are not the only one thinking this and acting on those thoughts. I went short yesterday at 78800 as I couldn't miss trading my setup. Why are we traders if we can't trade our ideas right?
I am in profit. Price action is good right now. But not far away enough from a reversal reach
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #211
  • Apr 23, 2026 4:58am Apr 23, 2026 4:58am
Quoting Zappa
Such a tricky market. Goes from looking looking no brainer to complete opposite in a just a couple hours
Very tricky. Sometimes I say to myself why don't I trade 3 month notes
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #212
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:03am Apr 23, 2026 5:03am
Quoting Zappa
Target at 60k I think i see whats going on now. Well maybe I do anyways. If im right it'll be a violent move down to 60k and then might make a bottom around 58k.
I want this as well. 3 things for me though:

  1. Will it happen? (dictated by the market)
  2. Will I not be shaken out? (combination of the market and my psychology)
  3. Can I hold the trade till 60k (combination of the market and my psychology)

Bitcoin is still directly correlated to the stock market and that is inversely correlated to the price of crude oil these days.

If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #213
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:18am Apr 23, 2026 5:18am
I REALLY don't see this TL below holding again!
Weekly chart posted yesterday looks bullish, but so many waves on 4hr and not really going anywhere looks corrective.
Watching for bottom in that blue rectangle. Target set at 60,500
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #214
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:18am Apr 23, 2026 5:18am
Price action looks good so far
  • #215
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:20am Apr 23, 2026 5:20am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I want this as well. 3 things for me though: Will it happen? (dictated by the market) Will I not be shaken out? (combination of the market and my psychology) Can I hold the trade till 60k (combination of the market and my psychology) Bitcoin is still directly correlated to the stock market and that is inversely correlated to the price of crude oil these days.
Stock market looks ready for a correction. Oil could spike too. Things lining up
  • #216
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:26am Apr 23, 2026 5:26am
Bitcoin made new high yesterday, but ETH failed to and already breaking first TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #217
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:27am Apr 23, 2026 5:27am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Stock market looks ready for a correction. Oil could spike too. Things lining up
Yes indeed. There could be some retracement anytime before the resumption of the downmove
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #218
  • Apr 23, 2026 8:35am Apr 23, 2026 8:35am
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  • #219
  • Apr 23, 2026 11:00am Apr 23, 2026 11:00am
Quoting Zappa
{image}
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #220
  • Apr 23, 2026 11:03am Apr 23, 2026 11:03am
Stonking turnaround by bitcoin today after an initial drop that looked like price was going to the centre of the earth.
The strength and the chart pattern breakout made me get out
Will still continue to assess for shorts. And yes Zappa I second your wish for a 20% drop - preferable as soon as I get short
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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