Gold with No Drama

CONGRATS

looking at this i do get the inkling that we might see a rally up to low 45's before a big big drop.
monday open gap down to 4270 then shooting rallying up over june to 4490 is realistic

I think we may be close to a pullback/bounce area. With the current price action, my bias is still more downside with targets between 4200/4000.

They depend on whether we choose the correct pivots or not.
Then comes the part about studying price action at those levels and at specific times of the day.
I mostly use 9 pm NY until 5 am because before 9 pm, to me, the probabilities are to be noise, and after that, Asia usually does an expansion move of about 50% of the expected daily movement. And they usually stop around 3/4 am NY to consolidate.
You can call it a template if you want. It's the period where you will see less manipulation, too.
I often repeat myself when saying that on the day, it's not about finding the trend, but the movement with the highest probability, and for me, that's this one.
Going back to deviations and pivots, there can actually be several, and they all behave differently.
Currently, in this period, my anchor is the close relationship with the previous monthly volume average close and that accepted value price for the previous month to aka close, because that's what any candle close means for that specific day.
What they do at that day can be important to other concepts or perspectives, not to deviations.
For instance? Why did it come from this week 4321 as daily target? Is the anchor of this year, it only ends up seeing the next in stairs and they work as magnets for price to seek. We had been arounf 4521 a quarter of a year deviation for some time back and forward around that zone and each time daily break the level they tested it. And what level has been rejected? 4521, if we go bearish at that time daily most likely seek 4321, did we close below or above? This levels give a potential picture that can happen mid term trend despite i think the fractal for this one is weekly. Then is were it comes the measurement of monthly at daily basis in conjunction with a template, same concept at a fractal point of view.
In short, deviations will always depend on the pivot we use and the knowledge of the price action at these levels and of pivot used, in this case if is volume average.
If i use daily the precision increases using the same pattern in a fractal way that is 1htf, where i see day after day 1h closing below or above a level and test the prior level broken before keep going down, or reverse and is those tests that i take advantage from aligned with others high probabilities test at daily, weekly and monthly close/open range.
Most likely you will not understand nothing of what i just said and is the reason why don't want to talk much about the subject it only will confuse people and make people believe that rely in one concept is all they need, it isn't.
Make the measure with a simple fibo tool between monthly average volume close of last month and his close for that specific time period, not general volume average, then go to your charts at 1h tf, and look well and you will see what i just talk.
You will see that not only the main deviations are strong levels used by them but at daily basis they have the tendency to respect the exact same measure that you plot initial from the mean at that specific days, as long is low volatility periods will not have enough volume to cross them easly.