Special Thread: COT Data Analysis & Trading Signals

Video: Unlocking Forex Profits: Currency Strength Analysis for Powerful Trades
This video explores trading opportunities based on a snapshot of currency strengths.

1. The analysis identifies the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the strongest currency and the Japanese Yen (JPY) as the weakest, based on their respective strength values of 73.09 and -115.07. This disparity suggests a general trend of JPY weakness and AUD strength.

Promising Trading Opportunities:

1. The analysis identifies AUDJPY as a strong bullish pair with a significant strength difference (greater than 100) of +188.16, suggesting potential long (buy) opportunities. Traders interested in this pair might look for confirming bullish candlestick patterns or breakouts.
2. GBPJPY also presents a bullish signal with a strength difference of +138.06, likewise indicating a potential buy opportunity.
3. Conversely, EURUSD shows a significant bearish signal (-38.10) due to the relative strength of the USD and weakness of the EUR, suggesting potential short (sell) opportunities.

Importance of Confirmation:

1. While the currency strength snapshot provides valuable insights, it's crucial to confirm these signals with technical and fundamental analysis before making trading decisions. Always use appropriate risk management techniques.

Disclaimer:

1. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Key Takeaway:
Traders can use currency strength analysis as a valuable starting point to identify potential trading opportunities. However, it is essential to conduct further research and consider multiple factors before making any investment decisions.

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 216,044 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -70,003 contracts (-32.4% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 25,151 contracts (11.6% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 95,154 contracts (44.0% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 2,656 contracts (1.2% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: -4,414 contracts (-6.3%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: -154 contracts (-0.6%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: 4,260 contracts (4.7%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: -2.0%
2. Non-Commercial Long: -0.1%
3. Non-Commercial Short: 2.0%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 60,168 contracts (27.8% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 156,149 contracts (72.3% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 95,981 contracts (44.4% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: 5,746 contracts (10.6%)
2. Commercial Long: 3,084 contracts (2.0%)
3. Commercial Short: 2,662 contracts (2.9%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: 2.7%
2. Commercial Long: 1.4%
3. Commercial Short: 1.2%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a substantial net short position in the Canadian dollar, suggesting a bearish outlook. This bearish sentiment has increased slightly from the previous report, with short positions growing more significantly than long positions.
Conversely, commercial traders maintain a net long position, indicating a more bullish perspective. Their net long position also increased notably from the last report. This divergence between commercial and non-commercial positioning is a key observation. Often, commercial traders are seen as more informed, so their bullish stance against the backdrop of non-commercial bearishness could be significant.
The increase in both commercial long and short positions suggests increased hedging activity, possibly in anticipation of increased volatility. The overall increase in open interest supports this view.

The data suggests a potential turning point in the Canadian dollar. While speculators are increasingly bearish, the substantial and growing bullish position of commercial hedgers warrants attention. This divergence could foreshadow a potential strengthening of the Canadian dollar. Further observation of the trend in subsequent COT reports is crucial to confirm this potential shift in market direction.
//
SWISS FRANC - (Code-092741)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 62,140 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -22,854 contracts (-36.8% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 6,550 contracts (10.5% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 29,404 contracts (47.3% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 687 contracts (1.1% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: 1,662 contracts (7.3%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: -951 contracts (-12.7%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: 2,613 contracts (9.8%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: 3.6%
2. Non-Commercial Long: -1.5%
3. Non-Commercial Short: 4.2%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 21,716 contracts (35.0% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 39,830 contracts (64.1% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 18,114 contracts (29.2% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: 1,572 contracts (7.8%)
2. Commercial Long: 946 contracts (2.4%)
3. Commercial Short: 626 contracts (3.6%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: 2.5%
2. Commercial Long: 1.5%
3. Commercial Short: 1.0%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a substantial net short position in the Swiss Franc, indicating a bearish sentiment. This bearishness has intensified since the last report, driven primarily by an increase in short positions, while long positions decreased.
Commercial traders, on the other hand, maintain a net long position, suggesting a bullish outlook. Their net long position also grew, though at a slower pace compared to the increase in non-commercial short positions. This divergence in positioning between the two groups is a key takeaway.
The increase in both commercial long and short positions, coupled with a rise in open interest, suggests increased hedging activity, potentially anticipating future price fluctuations or volatility.

The data paints a picture of increasing bearish sentiment among speculators, while commercial hedgers maintain a bullish, albeit less aggressively growing, stance. This divergence could be significant, as commercial traders are often considered more informed about market fundamentals. The continued growth of non-commercial short positions suggests further downward pressure on the Swiss Franc. However, the sustained bullish positioning of commercial traders could signal underlying strength and a potential turning point. Closely monitoring this trend in subsequent COT reports is crucial for confirming the future direction of the Swiss Franc.
//
BRITISH POUND - (Code-096742)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 257,312 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 93,765 contracts (36.4% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 161,469 contracts (62.8% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 67,704 contracts (26.3% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 2,907 contracts (1.1% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: 6,773 contracts (7.8%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: 6,144 contracts (3.9%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: -629 contracts (-0.9%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: 2.6%
2. Non-Commercial Long: 2.4%
3. Non-Commercial Short: -0.2%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -111,435 contracts (-43.3% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 51,360 contracts (20.0% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 162,795 contracts (63.3% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: 4,914 contracts (-4.2%)
2. Commercial Long: -1,014 contracts (-1.9%)
3. Commercial Short: 6,038 contracts (3.8%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: -1.9%
2. Commercial Long: -0.4%
3. Commercial Short: 2.3%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a substantial net long position in the British Pound, indicating a bullish outlook. This bullish sentiment has strengthened since the last report, with long positions increasing and short positions decreasing.
Commercial traders, conversely, hold a large net short position, suggesting a bearish view. Their net short position has grown slightly, primarily due to an increase in short positions. This divergence in positioning between commercial and non-commercial traders is a key observation.
The increases in both commercial long and short positions, along with the rise in open interest, suggest increased hedging activity, possibly in anticipation of future price movements or volatility.

The data reveals a bullish sentiment among speculators, reinforced by their growing net long positions. Commercial hedgers, however, maintain a bearish stance, though the increase in their short positions was relatively modest. This divergence requires careful consideration. While speculators are driving the current bullish trend, the persistent bearish positioning of commercial traders, often seen as more informed, could signal underlying weakness in the British Pound. Monitoring this divergence in subsequent COT reports is crucial for assessing the sustainability of the current bullish trend and the potential for a reversal.
//
JAPANESE YEN - (Code-097741)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 196,200 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 56,772 contracts (28.9% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 95,513 contracts (48.7% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 38,741 contracts (19.7% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 4,042 contracts (2.1% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: -9,115 contracts (-13.8%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: -9,177 contracts (-8.8%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: 62 contracts (0.2%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: -4.7%
2. Non-Commercial Long: -4.7%
3. Non-Commercial Short: 0.03%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -66,747 contracts (-34.0% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 58,635 contracts (29.9% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 125,382 contracts (63.9% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: -10,703 contracts (13.7%)
2. Commercial Long: 29 contracts (0.05%)
3. Commercial Short: -10,732 contracts (-7.9%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: 5.5%
2. Commercial Long: 0.01%
3. Commercial Short: -5.5%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a substantial net long position in the Japanese Yen, suggesting a bullish outlook. However, this bullish sentiment has weakened considerably since the last report, driven by a significant decrease in long positions, while short positions remained relatively flat.
Commercial traders, on the other hand, maintain a large net short position, indicating a bearish view. Interestingly, their net short position increased, primarily due to a decrease in short positions, which is unusual. This might indicate some unwinding of existing hedges or a shift in hedging strategies. The divergence between commercial and non-commercial positioning remains a key observation.

The decrease in open interest suggests a reduction in overall market participation, possibly reflecting uncertainty surrounding the Yen's future direction.
The data presents a mixed picture for the Japanese Yen. While non-commercial traders remain net long, their bullish conviction has diminished significantly. Commercial traders continue to hold a bearish view, though the dynamics of their position changes warrant further observation. The decrease in overall open interest adds to the uncertainty. The weakening bullish sentiment among speculators, coupled with the persistent bearish stance of commercial hedgers, suggests a potential weakening of the Yen. Closely monitoring subsequent COT reports is crucial for confirming the future direction of the Japanese Yen.
//
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - (Code-232741)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 201,032 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 14,528 contracts (7.2% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 101,462 contracts (50.5% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 86,934 contracts (43.2% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 1,502 contracts (0.7% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: 25,776 contracts (194.8%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: 19,538 contracts (23.6%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: -6,238 contracts (-6.7%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: 3.6%
2. Non-Commercial Long: 9.7%
3. Non-Commercial Short: -3.1%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -33,851 contracts (-16.8% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 61,915 contracts (30.8% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 95,766 contracts (47.6% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: 29,207 contracts (507.4%)
2. Commercial Long: 3,427 contracts (5.9%)
3. Commercial Short: 32,634 contracts (51.9%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: 7.4%
2. Commercial Long: 1.7%
3. Commercial Short: 5.7%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a net long position in the Australian Dollar, suggesting a bullish outlook. This bullish sentiment has strengthened significantly since the last report, driven by a large increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions.
Commercial traders, conversely, hold a net short position, indicating a bearish view. However, their net short position has increased dramatically, largely due to a substantial increase in short positions. This unusual activity warrants careful consideration and might reflect hedging against anticipated AUD strength or adjustments related to other market factors. The divergence between commercial and non-commercial positioning is a key observation.

The substantial increase in open interest points to increased market participation, likely reflecting heightened interest and potential volatility in the AUD.
The data paints a complex picture for the Australian Dollar. While speculators have significantly increased their bullish bets, the dramatic increase in commercial short positions raises a cautionary flag. This divergence could indicate that the current bullish trend is driven by speculative activity and might not be fully supported by underlying fundamentals. The substantial increase in open interest further suggests potential volatility ahead. Closely monitoring subsequent COT reports is crucial for assessing the sustainability of the current bullish trend and the potential for a reversal.
//
NZ DOLLAR - (Code-112741)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 61,226 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 1,970 contracts (3.2% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 29,168 contracts (47.6% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 27,198 contracts (44.4% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 389 contracts (0.6% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: 3,428 contracts (220.4%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: 2,693 contracts (10.3%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: -735 contracts (-2.6%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: 5.6%
2. Non-Commercial Long: 4.4%
3. Non-Commercial Short: -1.2%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -5,413 contracts (-8.8% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 25,264 contracts (41.3% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 30,677 contracts (50.1% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: 4,515 contracts (45.9%)
2. Commercial Long: 2,411 contracts (10.5%)
3. Commercial Short: 6,896 contracts (29.1%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: 7.4%
2. Commercial Long: 4.0%
3. Commercial Short: 3.5%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a small net long position in the New Zealand Dollar, suggesting a mildly bullish outlook. This bullish sentiment has strengthened significantly from the previous report, primarily due to an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions.
Commercial traders, on the other hand, hold a net short position, indicating a bearish view. Their net short position has also increased, driven by a substantial rise in short positions, outweighing the increase in long positions. This divergence in positioning between the two groups is noteworthy.
The significant increase in open interest signals increased market participation, likely reflecting growing interest and potential volatility in the NZD.

The data presents a mixed picture for the New Zealand Dollar. While speculators have increased their bullish bets, the simultaneous growth in commercial short positions warrants attention. This divergence could indicate that the current bullish momentum might not be fully supported by underlying fundamentals. The substantial rise in open interest further suggests increased potential for price swings. Closely observing subsequent COT reports will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of the current price movements and the potential for a shift in direction.
//
USD INDEX - (Code-098662)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 26,321 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 154 contracts (0.6% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 13,829 contracts (52.5% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 13,675 contracts (52.0% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 2,033 contracts (7.7% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: -4,585 contracts (-96.7%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: -2,695 contracts (-16.4%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: -1,890 contracts (-12.2%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: -0.2%
2. Non-Commercial Long: -2.7%
3. Non-Commercial Short: -1.9%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 1,557 contracts (5.9% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 7,944 contracts (30.2% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 6,387 contracts (24.3% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: 1,460 contracts (161.1%)
2. Commercial Long: 1,059 contracts (15.4%)
3. Commercial Short: 401 contracts (6.7%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: 0.8%
2. Commercial Long: 1.1%
3. Commercial Short: 0.4%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a near-neutral net long position in the USD Index, suggesting a lack of strong directional conviction. This near-neutral stance represents a significant shift from the previous report, with both long and short positions decreasing substantially. The relatively high level of spreading activity further underscores the uncertainty in directional sentiment.
Commercial traders also hold a relatively small net long position. Their net long position increased significantly from the last report, primarily driven by increased long positions. This shift in commercial positioning is noteworthy.

The decrease in open interest indicates reduced market participation, potentially reflecting a wait-and-see approach among traders.
The data suggests a period of uncertainty for the USD Index. The significant reduction in non-commercial net positions and the increase in commercial net long positions point to a potential shift in market dynamics. The decrease in open interest further supports this view, suggesting that traders are hesitant to take strong directional positions. Closely monitoring subsequent COT reports is crucial for understanding how these evolving dynamics might influence the future direction of the USD Index.
//
SILVER - (Code-084691)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 144,757 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 56,924 contracts (39.3% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 75,588 contracts (52.2% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 18,664 contracts (12.9% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 8,189 contracts (5.7% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: -5,274 contracts (-8.5%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: -5,441 contracts (-6.7%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: -167 contracts (-0.9%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: -3.6%
2. Non-Commercial Long: -3.8%
3. Non-Commercial Short: -0.1%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -79,220 contracts (-54.7% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 29,018 contracts (20.0% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 108,238 contracts (74.8% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: -2,612 contracts (-2.9%)
2. Commercial Long: -321 contracts (-1.1%)
3. Commercial Short: -2,933 contracts (-2.6%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: -1.8%
2. Commercial Long: -0.2%
3. Commercial Short: -2.0%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a substantial net long position in Silver, indicating a bullish outlook. However, this bullish sentiment has weakened slightly since the last report, with both long and short positions decreasing.
Commercial traders, conversely, hold a large net short position, suggesting a bearish view. Their net short position has also decreased slightly, primarily due to a decrease in short positions. The substantial divergence between commercial and non-commercial positioning remains a key feature of the market.

The decrease in open interest suggests reduced overall market participation, possibly reflecting a period of consolidation or uncertainty.
The data suggests a potential turning point in the Silver market. While non-commercial traders remain net long, their bullish conviction appears to be waning. The decrease in commercial short positions, while modest, could indicate some short-covering or a slight shift in sentiment. The overall decrease in open interest adds to the sense of uncertainty. Closely monitoring subsequent COT reports is crucial for confirming whether the current trend will continue or if a reversal is imminent.
//
GOLD - (Code-088691)

1. Report Date: October 1, 2024
2. Total Open Interest: 533,107 contracts

Non-Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: 300,031 contracts (56.3% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 370,051 contracts (69.4% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 70,120 contracts (13.2% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: 42,766 contracts (8.0% of Open Interest)

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Non-Commercial Net: -13,378 contracts (-4.3%)
2. Non-Commercial Long: -17,521 contracts (-4.5%)
3. Non-Commercial Short: -2,062 contracts (-2.9%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Non-Commercial Net: -5.9%
2. Non-Commercial Long: -3.3%
3. Non-Commercial Short: -0.4%

Commercial Positioning

1. Net Position: -227,524 contracts (-42.7% of Open Interest)
2. Long Positions: 67,099 contracts (12.6% of Open Interest)
3. Short Positions: 394,623 contracts (74.0% of Open Interest)
4. Spreading Positions: Not explicitly provided in the data.

Changes from Previous Report (September 24, 2024)

1. Commercial Net: -12,182 contracts (-5.1%)
2. Commercial Long: -9,614 contracts (-12.5%)
3. Commercial Short: -21,796 contracts (-5.2%)

Open Interest Distribution Changes

1. Commercial Net: -5.4%
2. Commercial Long: -1.8%
3. Commercial Short: -4.0%

Analysis:
Non-commercial traders hold a substantial net long position in Gold, indicating a strong bullish outlook. However, this bullish sentiment has weakened somewhat since the last report, with both long and short positions decreasing. The level of spreading activity remains relatively high, suggesting some ongoing uncertainty about near-term price direction.

Commercial traders, conversely, maintain a large net short position, reflecting a bearish view. Their net short position has also decreased, with both long and short positions declining. The substantial divergence between commercial and non-commercial positioning persists.
The decrease in open interest points to a reduction in overall market participation, possibly indicating a period of consolidation or a pause in the prevailing trend.

The data suggests a potential shift in momentum in the Gold market. While non-commercial traders remain significantly net long, their bullish conviction has lessened. The decrease in commercial short positions, alongside a decrease in open interest, could signal a potential turning point. Continued observation of subsequent COT reports is essential for confirming whether the current bullish trend will persist or if a reversal is on the horizon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Analysis of Non-Commercial Trader Positioning (October 1, 2024)

1. BTCUSD: Bearish bias. Net short position, although slightly decreased from the previous report.
2. XAUUSD: Bullish bias. Substantial net long position, reinforcing gold's safe-haven appeal.
3. USOIL: Bullish bias. Net long position, indicating positive sentiment towards WTI Crude Oil.
4. UKOIL: Bearish bias. Net short position, potentially suggesting a preference for WTI over Brent.
5. US30: Bullish bias. Net long position, reflecting optimism regarding the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
6. US100: Bullish bias. Net long position, indicating positive sentiment towards the Nasdaq-100.
7. US500: Neutral bias. Near-neutral net position, suggesting a balanced outlook on the S&P 500.
8. XAGUSD: Bullish bias. Net long position, aligning with the bullish sentiment observed in XAUUSD.
9. GER40: Data not available.

II. Currency Pairs:
Based on relative strengths derived from individual currency positioning:

1. GBP: Bullish bias. The substantial net long GBP position suggests potential strength against AUD, CAD, CHF, JPY, NZD, and USD.
2. JPY: Bullish bias. Strong JPY positioning points towards potential appreciation against AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, NZD, and USD.
3. CHF & CAD: Bearish bias. Large net short positions suggest potential weakness. Pairs likely impacted include AUDCAD, AUDCHF, CADCHF, CADJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, GBPAUD, GBPCAD, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, USDCAD, and USDCHF.
4. EUR, AUD, NZD: Neutral to slightly bullish bias. Definitive bias determination requires further granular analysis.

III. Important Considerations:

1. COT data limitations: COT data represents a snapshot in time and should not be used in isolation. Integrate with other technical and fundamental analysis, along with robust risk management strategies.

Video:
00:00 - Intro: COT Report Explained
00:15 - Understanding Commercial vs. Non-Commercial Traders
01:00 - GBP Strength - What's Driving the Bullish Sentiment?
02:00 - JPY's Safe Haven Appeal - Why Traders are Bullish on the Yen
02:50 - CHF & CAD Weakness - The Impact of Global Uncertainty
03:45 - US Dollar's Uncertain Future - High Spreading Percentage
05:30 - How to Use COT Trends to Your Advantage
07:15 - Key Takeaways and Final Thoughts

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

//BULLISH Pairs:
```
AUDJPY,AUDNZD,CADJPY,CHFJPY,EURAUD,EURGBP,EURJPY,EURNZD,GBPAUD,GBPCAD,GBPCHF,GBPNZD,NZDCAD,NZDCHF,NZDJPY,USDCAD,USDCHF,USDJPY
```
//BEARISH Pairs:
```
AUDCAD,AUDCHF,AUDUSD,CADCHF,EURCAD,EURCHF,EURUSD,GBPUSD,NZDUSD
```

Bullish Pair Confirmation Analysis: Non-Commercial COT Data (October 1, 2024)

1. AUDNZD: Both AUD and NZD exhibit net long Non-Commercial positions. However, the significantly stronger positive sentiment towards AUD (7.23) compared to NZD (3.21) confirms the previously assigned bullish classification.
2. GBPAUD: Non-Commercial traders hold net long positions in both GBP and AUD. The considerably higher strength of GBP (36.44) relative to AUD (7.23) supports the pair's bullish designation.
3. GBPCAD: The analysis reveals a robust net long position for GBP coupled with a substantial net short position for CAD. This substantial divergence strongly affirms the bullish classification.
4. GBPCHF: Similar to GBPCAD, a marked net long GBP position and a significant net short CHF position corroborate the bullish classification for this pair.
5. GBPNZD: While both currencies show net long positions, GBP's strength (36.44) substantially exceeds NZD's (3.21), thus reinforcing the bullish assessment.
6. NZDCAD: A net long position in NZD and a significant net short position in CAD indicate a divergence clearly supporting the bullish classification.
7. NZDCHF: The observed net long NZD position and substantial net short CHF position validate the bullish classification for this pair.
8. USDCAD: Although USD exhibits a near-neutral net position, the considerable net short position in CAD suggests a bullish bias for USDCAD, aligning with the previous classification.
9. USDCHF: The presence of a near-neutral USD net position combined with a noteworthy net short position for CHF supports the earlier bullish designation.

Pairs Requiring Reclassification:

1. AUDJPY: While both currencies demonstrate net long positions among Non-Commercial traders, JPY’s substantially greater strength (28.93 vs. 7.23) indicates a potential for JPY appreciation against AUD, rendering the previously identified bullish bias inaccurate.
2. GBPJPY: Conflicting signals are apparent in this pair. Although both GBP and JPY possess strong net long positions, their relatively equal strength levels (36.44 vs. 28.93) preclude a definitive confirmation of its bullish nature based on the current COT data. Further analysis is required.

Bearish Pair Confirmation Analysis: Non-Commercial COT Data (October 1, 2024)

This report evaluates the accuracy of previously identified bearish currency pairs, as per currency strength snapshot, using Non-Commercial Commitment of Traders (COT) data from October 1st, 2024. The analysis focuses on Non-Commercial net positioning to validate the bearish classifications.
Confirmed Bearish Pairs:

1. AUDCAD: The presence of a net long AUD position and a significant net short CAD position among Non-Commercial traders clearly indicates a bearish bias, supporting the initial classification.
2. AUDCHF: Consistent with AUDCAD, a net long AUD position and a substantial net short CHF position strongly confirm the bearish classification.

Pairs Requiring Further Analysis:

1. CADCHF: Both CAD and CHF display substantial net short positions among Non-Commercial traders. However, the relatively smaller magnitude of the net short position for CAD (-32.39% vs. -36.77% for CHF) warrants further investigation. While a bearish bias is plausible, additional analysis incorporating historical data and price action is needed for definitive confirmation.

Final:

//BULLISH Pairs:
```
AUDNZD,GBPAUD,GBPCAD,GBPCHF,GBPNZD,NZDCAD,NZDCHF,USDCAD,USDCHF
```
//BEARISH Pairs:
```
AUDCAD,AUDCHF
```

1. 00:00 - Intro: Taming Trading Emotions
2. 00:58 - Avoiding Trading Disasters
3. 02:08 - Reading the Market Crowd
4. 04:22 - Actionable Trading Tips
5. 04:57 - Trade Score System
6. 05:32 - Keeping a Trading Journal

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

//BULLISH Pairs:
AUDJPY: +21.05 (BULLISH)
AUDNZD: +30.76 (BULLISH)
CADCHF: +8.55 (BULLISH)
CADJPY: +107.72 (BULLISH)
CHFJPY: +116.27 (BULLISH)
EURAUD: +53.75 (BULLISH)
EURGBP: +27.36 (BULLISH)
EURJPY: +74.80 (BULLISH)
EURNZD: +84.51 (BULLISH)
USDCAD: +44.75 (BULLISH)
USDCHF: +36.20 (BULLISH)
USDJPY: +152.47 (BULLISH)

//BEARISH Pairs:
AUDCAD: -86.67 (BEARISH)
AUDCHF: -95.22 (BEARISH)
AUDUSD: -131.42 (BEARISH)
EURCAD: -32.92 (BEARISH)
EURCHF: -41.47 (BEARISH)
EURUSD: -77.67 (BEARISH)
GBPAUD: -26.39 (BEARISH)
GBPCAD: -60.28 (BEARISH)
GBPCHF: -68.83 (BEARISH)
GBPJPY: -47.44 (BEARISH)
GBPNZD: -57.15 (BEARISH)
GBPUSD: -105.03 (BEARISH)
NZDCAD: -117.43 (BEARISH)
NZDCHF: -125.98 (BEARISH)
NZDJPY: -9.71 (BEARISH)
NZDUSD: -162.18 (BEARISH)

1. AUDJPY: AUD is net long, JPY is net long - both currencies exhibiting strength favors a bullish bias.
2. AUDNZD: AUD is net long, NZD is net long - both currencies exhibiting strength favors a bullish bias.
3. EURGBP: EUR is net long, GBP is net long - both currencies exhibiting strength favors a bullish bias, though GBP's significantly stronger positioning may eventually lead to a shift in this pair.
4. EURJPY: EUR is net long, JPY is net long - both currencies exhibiting strength favors a bullish bias.
5. EURNZD: EUR is net long, NZD is net long - both currencies exhibiting strength favors a bullish bias.

Bearish Pairs

1. AUDCAD: AUD is net long, CAD is heavily net short - AUD strength against CAD weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
2. AUDCHF: AUD is net long, CHF is heavily net short - AUD strength against CHF weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
3. EURCAD: EUR is net long, CAD is heavily net short - EUR strength against CAD weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
4. EURCHF: EUR is net long, CHF is heavily net short - EUR strength against CHF weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
5. GBPAUD: GBP is strongly net long, AUD is net long - GBP's considerably stronger positioning compared to AUD suggests a bearish bias for this pair.
6. GBPCAD: GBP is strongly net long, CAD is heavily net short - GBP strength against CAD weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
7. GBPCHF: GBP is strongly net long, CHF is heavily net short - GBP strength against CHF weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
8. GBPNZD: GBP is strongly net long, NZD is slightly net long - GBP's considerably stronger positioning compared to NZD suggests a bearish bias for this pair.
9. NZDCAD: NZD is slightly net long, CAD is heavily net short - NZD strength against CAD weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.
10. NZDCHF: NZD is slightly net long, CHF is heavily net short - NZD strength against CHF weakness points towards a bearish bias for this pair.