Are bitcoin owners making a crypto-exit?

Previously no recession, that's why when bitcoin drop, it will rise even higher.

Now with recession, everything changes. Who will pump bitcoin this time.

What timeframe do you believe that is to happen? Jan-Feb next year? Or late spring?

I wonder where the bears will stop if 13,000 break down. The technical projection shows is below 4,000.

People are having hard time cashing out of btc, who in right mind would go and put money in it ?
https://www.outlookindia.com/busines...e--news-207251

You don't know? The Crypto "revolution" is over! Bitcoin is a failed experiment. Blind believers, smart speculators, scam operators and other interested will continue to support the "dream" for many years. You will see more ups and downs on the way to zero.

BTC failed as a currency.
Failed as a store of value.
Impractical for mass use.
The blockchain technology is very complicated, energy intense and highly dependent on network. Therefore unreliable due to lack of options for further development and upscale. Offline use is impossible anyway.

Ca$h is KING once again!
And GOLD will store value forever.
Good old, good old.

Since 2013, BTC has made 2 85% drops from highs, each one recovering with a 1500% - 2000% gain the the following years. This is nothing new. If we get to another 85% drop, we are looking at a 10-11K USD value BTC. Plus, you have to remember, this is only the USD value of BTC anyway, which is totally irrelevant.

If people were buying BTC only to one day sell/convert it back to USD, they never really understood what BTC is in the first place, and I can't feel sorry for them

"If people were buying BTC only to one day sell/convert it back to USD, they never really understood what BTC is in the first place" - You have to be really naïve to think that... Like, 99,9% of the people who bought BTC did it in the hope that it would gain value.... against the USD (or whatever currency it's evaluated against). People don't buy BTC in a vacuum, they buy it in the hope it gains value.... against the USD. Which is kind of ironic, if you think about it: the valuation of bitcoin is based on a currency that it's supposed to replace (according to some lunatics).

Saying that "it is only the USD value of BTC, which is irrelevant" is completely foolish, and let's just say that statement doesn't reflect reality. Like any investment, the valuation over time of that investment is actually a bit important (duuuuh!). Only a few with tinfoil hats bought BTC actually thinking the USD would somehow collapse and disappear from this world, and we could finally buy unicorns with the beloved cryptocurrency.

A little fear and geopolitical instability quickly brings (lucid) people back to reality, and puts over-valued instruments at their right place.

Hey Oliver Twist, thanks for your reply Yeah, I know it does seem a little extreme to think now that Bitcoin could replace the USD as the major global currency, but I wouldn't say it a totally foolish concept. But I totally respect your opinion. I like having bitcoin as part of a mixed bag of investments, and will hold it until retirement. Will it be a useable currency by then? I have no idea, but I like being involved and fully accept that one day it may all be gone

Hi Oliver

You could be right but the best use of crypto is for trading, not holding for long time monetary gains.

I spend eight hours a day scalping EURUSD while looking for opportunities to short BTC or any other shitcoin that shows trading setups. On Wednesday night before NYO, there was a breakout setup on EURUSD and also most crypto markets at the same time. The breakout on EURUSD was 1% of price movement yet on many crypto markets, the move was worth between 7% to 11%. That’s a real chance to grow some monetary gains but you must exit back into USD.

The goal is to grow USD, not BTC as I see it.

Cheers

Howdy, Ryuryu

Nice Observation. You Finaly figured it out!

What was the formula for your arrived conclusions?

Hey thatRichDude!

I don't play chess with pigeons, so I just posted last 3-4 cycles observations and they are the same. Current cycle can be different for sure, or can be same too.
But since I don't trade crypto in long term (only algo scalping) it doesn't matter much for me.

For me crypto is just an instrument for speculations. It just have real volume, API and much better volatility. If compare with forex it is at least 3x times less risky (or if you want 3x times more profitable).

shorting it at this level !!!!
Monthly support level showing @ 8500, might melt by the time it get's there ?

I personally know very few traders who gave up trading because they were making so much money in the cryptocurrency market! Personally, I don't think trading and investing are the same thing! The Crypto Pairs trading chart is used by a huge number of traders.

The news is that bitcoin is coming out of the bearish drive. It reached the bottom and should rebound; it already gained 20% from its year low.

Bitcoin has again left the 19k area, but will it move lower in September?

Given it’s recent correlation to the traditional markets, which are being forced lower by the fed to counter inflation, BTC will almost certainly move lower next month and for the rest of this year most likely.

We may end in the sub 10k territory, given the lack of scarcity of major support areas from here to there.

Looks like the market wants to prove you right.

No, I don't think so bitcoin owners are making a crypto-exit. Bitcoin is still dominated by large and concentrated players.

Hi Alex;
I trust you’re well & congratulations on your great thread.
I am very sorry that I am came to the party considerably later than it began since I have been off-grid for the last few months attending to some extenuating matters outside of trading.
My intention was to PM you but as you know from experience my walls of text doesn’t fit in the PM window & then I have to break it into smaller segments & sent to you so I gathered I may as well post it on your forum which I hope you don’t mind.
There are some weighted issues which you ventilated concerning BTC & the discussion pertaining to the ever-allusive answer as to where to from here.
From my end; if I may respectfully venture that so far, most; if not all the sentiment which is echoed concerning BTC & some of the other major crypto instruments are perpetuated through a veneer of conventional index markers.
We see the same type of diametrically opposed views expressed in your thread being promulgated through mainstream media with influential figures eg. Peter Schiff claiming BTC to zero for the longest time whilst we have the likes of Michael Saylor adopting a victory or death mentality with actually stepping away from his previous CEO position of MicroStrategy, a highly successful company which he co-founded. This off course to channel more of his energy into the BTC ecosystem.
You may likely agree that conviction such as he has exhibited is not commonplace & cannot be fobbed off as a mere impulse decision. The reality is, such as with most topics where there is seemingly no middle ground, strong sentiment will continue to be conveyed, sometimes in a measured tone; most other times with emotively charged language.
Everyone knows mainstream media thrives on sensationalism & loud voices shouting at one another lest we forget their mantra: “if it doesn’t Bleed; it doesn’t Lead”
We, the trading fraternity, or rather those who have been in it long enough to understand some things which new market entrants can’t possibly know, watch carefully from the sidelines for nuances which inform our decision making. It is unfortunate that every so often we fall into the misguided notion that our crystal ball, which we dumped from early in our trading years of unconscious incompetence will serve us again. So, we take out that dusty, long abandoned crystal ball in a bizarre flight of fantasy & attempt looking into it starry eyed such as in our early days of trading, as to what it could reveal for the future such that we may execute that ever allusive 50x or 100x position which we missed the last time.
Alas, I digress…
I have not seen many; or any for that matter, write-ups & comments which point to the unspoken extreme latent demand which is created for Bitcoin & as of recent a few other crypto such as the most recent rising star, Monero.
Whilst we, users of FF & the Clearnet & mainstream media engage, argue, agree & disagree as to the supply & demand dynamics of BTC & whether or not it is going to the Moon or a falling knife to Zero there is an abundantly thriving market where Bitcoin holds an absolute monopoly as the medium of exchange; or that term many prefer; store of value.
Only recently has it been somewhat rivalled (but not so far as entry price or scale) by Monero. The relative scarcity (albeit perceived) of Monero tokens is not surprisingly driving demand & naturally the price of the token upward in that same ecosystem.
Do you know where that is? It answers the burning question of who exactly are the people who are all forming the never-ending bee line to purchase Bitcoin regardless whether it goes up, down or sideways. Most of them won’t even know a BTC or Monero chart if you print it in hard copy on A1 paper & hand it to them.
These buyers are not the HODL, “crypto till I die” crew, no Sir, they are not even traders. As a matter of speaking most, if not all of them don’t even know how to make their purchase but be absolutely assured that they make the purchase despite all the challenges.
They just have to have it; regardless how much it is since crypto (mainly Bitcoin) is the only medium of exchange in that ecosystem. Well, recently being rivalled by Monero but not by any means threatened as the core store of value. In that setting USD along with all other Fiat currency along with all other payment gateways such as Paypal, Skrill, Wise etc are all shunned with extreme prejudice.
The primal basis for any instrument was answered with the demand gaining traction since there will always be a consistent stream of buyers who couldn’t care less & merrily ignorant of market sentiment, data, charts & what Peter Schiff or Michael Saylor say or do; which off course creates the supply/demand dynamic push & pull like we know with our conventional instruments.
Same script Alex, different cast. The beat goes on, current media sentiment is primarily doom & gloom now to discourage would be savvy diamond hand dip buyers but you know full well as does all veteran traders on this forum that as & once there is a hard kick-off with the bull run there will be flashing signals everywhere enticing the next round of newbies to buy the next top if it breaks the previous ATH.
Off course; if there is no huge bulk or paper-hand buy orders enticed into buying the top at that point why; ever should be there a capitulation to the RTV pull-back zone? It will be no fun capitulating if there are no over-leveraged buyers at the new ATH to shake off.
Ah, the folly of understanding The Bandwagon Theory & if only we can execute it without emotion & mental instability. If wishes were horses; beggars would indeed ride hey???
Perhaps if this discussion interests you, we can ventilate it further when we chat.
Until then, be sure to have an absolutely marvellous day & may the markets go with you…
Sincerely,

crypto winter will be ~2 years.

centralized exchanges are obsolete idea. Blockchain core idea is decentralization... therefore decentralized exchanges like Uniswap is the future because it aligns with the core values of blockchain - trust and transparency.

regarding stable coins - USDC is ok, but USDT not. Why? Again.. because of spirit..


Binance might go down too... Maybe 2-3 centralized exchanges will stay in longterm. Coinbase 100%. Binance... well... offshore in Kaiman islands.... u see... But Coinbase is legit US company listed in NASDAQ.