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  • #92,321
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:23am Sep 15, 2025 11:23am
Quoting thebigshot
Since y'all are "traders" the 25bps cut is a done deal. what is expected from Powell Speeches?? anyone? I want some constructive and informed decision from "Red badge" members. Aint they pro?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal a likely interest rate cut in his upcoming speech, responding to recent economic data showing a weakening labor market despite inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Powell will probably emphasize that while the Fed remains concerned about inflation—particularly given recent tariffs and the resulting rise in consumer prices—the risks to employment and broader economic growth now outweigh inflation worries.
Key Talking Points Expected

  1. Labor Market Weakness: Powell is anticipated to highlight "underwhelming" employment reports over several months, with job growth slowing sharply, unemployment ticking higher, and recent data showing job losses for the first time in years.

  1. Inflation Still Elevated: He is likely to acknowledge that inflation remains slightly above target, driven by rising energy and import costs, including effects from tariffs and increased prices for essentials like food and gasoline.
  2. Balancing Risks: Powell has previously stated that the Fed’s approach will be “careful,” aiming to balance the rising downside risks to employment with still-elevated inflation risks—reflecting a complex “stagflation” scenario.
  3. Policy Path Forward: Markets overwhelmingly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at this meeting, and Powell is expected to frame this as necessary risk management, suggesting that more cuts could follow if labor conditions continue to deteriorate.

Political and Economic Context

  1. Political Pressure: Powell is likely to avoid referencing direct political pressure but will note the Fed’s independence and its mandate to support both maximum employment and price stability.

  1. Uncertainty Ahead: He will probably repeat that the Fed must remain flexible and responsive to evolving data, given ongoing uncertainty about the economic effects of tariffs and global trends, while reaffirming the central bank’s readiness to act further if risks intensify.

Powell's message is expected to be cautious but clear: the Fed stands ready to cut rates in response to weakening growth, even as it monitors inflation risks closely, reflecting its dual mandate in a volatile economic climate.

  • #92,322
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:28am Sep 15, 2025 11:28am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to signal a likely interest rate cut in his upcoming speech, responding to recent economic data showing a weakening labor market despite inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Powell will probably emphasize that while the Fed remains concerned about inflation—particularly given recent tariffs and the resulting rise in consumer prices—the risks to employment and broader economic growth now outweigh inflation worries. Key Talking Points Expected Labor Market Weakness: Powell is anticipated...
In his upcoming speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize several key points reflecting current economic realities and policy debates.
Likelihood and Timing of Rate Cuts
Powell is likely to signal that the balance of economic risks has shifted and that the Federal Reserve is prepared to cut interest rates soon, possibly as early as the September meeting. He may highlight the weak labor market, the risk of sharply rising unemployment, and acknowledge that the Fed’s policy stance could be too restrictive for current conditions.
Labor Market and Economic Risks
He will probably stress that recent data shows labor market vulnerabilities—job growth is slowing, layoffs could rise quickly, and supply constraints from immigration policies create a “curious kind of balance”. The downside risks to employment, if they materialize, could do so rapidly.
Inflation and Tariffs
Although inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, Powell is expected to note that the recent uptick stems mostly from one-off factors like tariffs and commodity price shocks, and he may downplay the long-term risk here.
Shift in Policy Framework
Powell is anticipated to announce a change in Fed strategy: ending the “average inflation targeting” that allowed overshooting the 2% goal, and returning to a simple target of 2% inflation. There will be an emphasis on the Fed’s “neutral” stance, aiming neither to stimulate nor restrain growth unnecessarily.
Central Bank Independence
Given rising political pressure, especially from the White House, Powell will almost certainly assert the importance of Fed independence, stating that policy choices will remain grounded in economic data and the dual mandate of stable prices and full employment, not politics.
Gradual Approach and Caution
He will urge caution, indicating that while a rate cut is highly likely, further actions will depend on incoming data. Any adjustments will be “gradual and limited,” reflecting continued uncertainty.
These points will shape market expectations and signal the Fed’s path as it seeks to navigate persistent inflation, labor market challenges, and political headwinds.
  • #92,323
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:30am Sep 15, 2025 11:30am
3700 before close of play anyone?
  • #92,324
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:31am Sep 15, 2025 11:31am
weekly R1 / 3697 should stabilize price
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  • #92,325
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:35am Sep 15, 2025 11:35am
3687, 2 dev from NY, don't see stop early. 1 is past now remain 2

But i would like it sink here, i have 1 quarter position in loss im my mean reversion strategy and i do not like where this 4h Ny will close. Prefer to close it soonner.

3675.96 i close it... Test of 1 Dev.
  • #92,326
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:47am Sep 15, 2025 11:47am
Last entry...Sell
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Holy Betting Grail strategy
  • #92,327
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:47am Sep 15, 2025 11:47am
let price relax before deciding next move

weekly range should be 3726 so i will be very cautious here

achieved my primary goal today, from here on wards i actually start earning, till now i was just recovering losses
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  • #92,328
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:49am Sep 15, 2025 11:49am
Quoting thebigshot
Since y'all are "traders" the 25bps cut is a done deal. what is expected from Powell Speeches?? anyone? I want some constructive and informed decision from "Red badge" members. Aint they pro?
To be honest, its becoming nearly impossible to project anything with certainty anymore. On one hand, we have an IDIOT president who appears unable to manage U.S. or international diplomacy. At the same time conflicts are flaring up across the globe, the dollar is being dumped at an accelerated pace, yields are rising, and the economy is showing clear signs of strain. On the international front, the Russia Ukraine war continues to escalate, while the Palestine Israel conflict has intensified with Israel striking openly under the watch of the U.S, a close ally of Qatar that hosts the largest American military presence in the GCC and CENTCOMs regional headquarters. Washington posture of selective silence has infuriated the Arab world to the Israeli bullying. The result is an environment that has slipped fully into chaos.

Meanwhile, gold has already surged $250 without a meaningful correction on US 25 bps news. But Gold is influenced not only by the U.S. dollar or economy also and often more directly by geopolitical instability. In the current climate I doubt Powells speech will carry much weight. At this point, it feels like we have moved beyond the reach of conventional projections.
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Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #92,329
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:51am Sep 15, 2025 11:51am
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} In his upcoming speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to emphasize several key points reflecting current economic realities and policy debates. Likelihood and Timing of Rate Cuts Powell is likely to signal that the balance of economic risks has shifted and that the Federal Reserve is prepared to cut interest rates soon, possibly as early as the September meeting. He may highlight the weak labor market, the risk of sharply rising unemployment, and acknowledge that the Fed’s policy stance could be too restrictive for current conditions....
this wont help much
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #92,330
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:51am Sep 15, 2025 11:51am
Quoting Deal
3687, 2 dev from NY, don't see stop early. 1 is past now remain 2 But i would like it sink here, i have 1 quarter position in loss im my mean reversion strategy and i do not like where this 4h Ny will close. Prefer to close it soonner. 3675.96 i close it... Test of 1 Dev.
Close it null, because i think price will take a while to retest 3663.19 that should act as a breaker, but in time i make the decision when price come there.
Done for the day...
  • #92,331
  • Sep 15, 2025 11:54am Sep 15, 2025 11:54am
Quoting Whale
{quote} what are the huge news?
Arab world summit against israel currently in progress
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
  • #92,332
  • Sep 15, 2025 12:12pm Sep 15, 2025 12:12pm
Quoting thebigshot
Since y'all are "traders" the 25bps cut is a done deal. what is expected from Powell Speeches?? anyone? I want some constructive and informed decision from "Red badge" members. Aint they pro?
We are not pros, i don't know where you get that idea from.

Yeah 25 bps won't be the market mover. Powell recently stated in Jackson Hole Symposium that the focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market, since risks to the economy and labor market is now a becoming a bigger threat. That means:

1. Summary of Economic Projections will be the key initial market driver with the release. Any upwards revision to Unemployment and downward revision to GDP will result in a USD dump. If the inflation also gets revised up with these two, it would mean stagflation, which would result in Gold rocketing up while US stock market is dumping.

2. After that, the press conference will be the main focus. We will see if this is a "dovish" or "hawkish" cut depending on Powell's comments for the state of the economy + further guidance. If he says the economy is looking strong (which is not, so this is a very low probability) then the USD would go up. But again, this is a low probability since the economic data was far from good so far. The most likely scenario is Powell stating that the economy is cooling and labor market weakening, hinting that there will be more rate cuts to come. Which would be a dovish stance and that's what i expect.

All in all, it's better to react than predict. Green pips to all
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #92,333
  • Sep 15, 2025 12:27pm Sep 15, 2025 12:27pm
Quoting Nordling
{quote} We are not pros, i don't know where you get that idea from. Yeah 25 bps won't be the market mover. Powell recently stated in Jackson Hole Symposium that the focus is shifting from inflation to the labor market, since risks to the economy and labor market is now a becoming a bigger threat. That means: 1. Summary of Economic Projections will be the key initial market driver with the release. Any upwards revision to Unemployment and downward revision to GDP will result in a USD dump. If the inflation also gets revised up with these two, it...
IMO problem now is they bet for a long term rate cut, not only 2.5 point in this month, but for much longer term, may be at least 1-3 years about 5-6 times cut rate, currenly many bank bet for stagflation, due to the signal is here already. Economics is slow down + high inflation above target but not much... About US stock, it give no sign of short selling either lol, i dont know what happen there but there is data about hedge short and losses in PnL of many bank for those short (Price still keep going upward).
USD can keep going downward if 94 wont hold, with a MN close or Quarter confirm below this level then USD could never come back 100 early. Well one way or another, price of gold can keep going upward especially when an MN close above 3500. IMO, it cant trace that much for now, but let see what market give us.
I dont like it keep going upward like this due to when the market collapse, it will be brutal (simmilar to last week but much more brutal), difficult to identify and take good entry or will get many liquidity sweep...
Will is the most powerful weapon in the world.
  • #92,334
  • Sep 15, 2025 12:30pm Sep 15, 2025 12:30pm
Quoting oliverlee
3700 before close of play anyone?
at one point I thought yes, but we may have seen the highs.. if we do break the highs it’s maybe or stop just below 3690-3699
Insane in the Brain..
  • #92,335
  • Sep 15, 2025 12:35pm Sep 15, 2025 12:35pm
Quoting BeeTogether
{quote} at one point I thought yes, but we may have seen the highs.. if we do break the highs it’s maybe or stop just below 3690-3699
yeah, there is still a bit of life in PA at this later time which is usually a little quieter imo.

in long from 74, so 90+ would be nice.

took a hit on my sell from the 30 area, cant win them all, but I seem to getting better at knowing when to abandon my bias which is a bonus
  • #92,336
  • Sep 15, 2025 1:21pm Sep 15, 2025 1:21pm
Sell now or never for gold tp 100+
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
  • #92,337
  • Sep 15, 2025 1:25pm Sep 15, 2025 1:25pm
Quoting Praetorion
{quote} Arab world summit against israel currently in progress
Not a big deal.
What they going to do beside to condemn?

Every Arab nation hates each other badly. The only thing that unites them is a common "enemy." That won't last.
  • #92,338
  • Sep 15, 2025 1:55pm Sep 15, 2025 1:55pm
tomorrow 3703+ may touch. before that, may be re-visit 3668~67 zone. very high chances tomorrow asian will push the market higher high. sorry for all the bear. today bears were trying to control the market but it did not work well. i think may be end of the month we will see a down big move.

today i had another panic attack. today i did not have any dinner, eyes were glued to the monitor! luckily i got out with 2% profit. i had 4% drawdown. wondering what would happen if gold price pushed to 3700 today, i would end up with a loss, may be 7~8%! idk how will i able to fix my trading emotion. but it's better than last year for now.
  • #92,339
  • Sep 15, 2025 2:01pm Sep 15, 2025 2:01pm
Quoting Tintin2014
tomorrow 3703+ may touch. before that, may be re-visit 3668~67 zone. very high chances tomorrow asian will push the market higher high. sorry for all the bear. today bears were trying to control the market but it did not work well. i think may be end of the month we will see a down big move. today i had another panic attack. today i did not have any dinner, eyes were glued to the monitor! luckily i got out with 2% profit. i had 4% drawdown. wondering what would happen if gold price pushed to 3700 today, i would end up with a loss, may be 7~8%! idk...
I already have a buy limit at 3666.566 tp 3699.91
At least is what i think that breaker will do... Can go deeper but the target have great odds.

Not necessary hit the limit order tomorrow, but when it comeback is the measure i got for a trade. Despite go further tomorrow first, this trade is fix whatever the time it activate.
  • #92,340
  • Sep 15, 2025 2:15pm Sep 15, 2025 2:15pm
Quoting Tintin2014
tomorrow 3703+ may touch. before that, may be re-visit 3668~67 zone. very high chances tomorrow asian will push the market higher high. sorry for all the bear. today bears were trying to control the market but it did not work well. i think may be end of the month we will see a down big move. today i had another panic attack. today i did not have any dinner, eyes were glued to the monitor! luckily i got out with 2% profit. i had 4% drawdown. wondering what would happen if gold price pushed to 3700 today, i would end up with a loss, may be 7~8%! idk...
that my friend is not the right way for trading. Good traders cut their losses but great traders switch directions. u being glued to the screen on a trade going against u will not do anything. either set a tight stop or call it a day and move away We are in the business of speculative trading and losses are part of it. wish u green pips my friend.
Candlesticks dont move markets, Volume does
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