Hi All,
GBP/JPY has been dumping in Tokyo session.
GBP/JPY has been dumping in Tokyo session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
2
- #11,923
- May 28, 2026 12:36am May 28, 2026 12:36am
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
Now waiting for Timetells and Bluesteele to give their much awaited input.
I am a reversal trader so looking for a setup now for price to tell me when to enter BUT don't want to catch the falling knife.
Trade well all.
Hi W,
Hope things are well pal
“I am a reversal trader
so looking for a setup now for price to tell me when to enter
BUT don't want to catch the falling knife. “
A makes sense approach.
Franky opens in half an hour, then the big one for GJ after that – the London open.
Looks to me like they’ve started aggregating again so they can go up or down or UP & DOWN - till all open buys/sells are sitting in the big pot.
ADR is still a basic 20 pips short of the number.
As you know if GJ is grinding it can go 2 times adr so I really know nothing yet (in regards to reversals I mean, other than hope or gambling).
Below current price there are some heavy trader attractors just sitting, the Week AND Month PP and a Big Round Number. Do they wait for London & head straight for them or do a Fake’N’Flip and trap sellers before flipping back. Or does it rotate again all the way through to New York (or do they abandon that chase today ?)
Depends how many pips a trader wishes to chase for or just cover in DD before their TP or SL.
Looks like gambling to me right now, meaning some WILL win if getting in trading and therefore some will lose.
But not the MMs
, as the big players can sit longer in any DD than we can imagine depending if the aggregations are in their favour or not.This is the time of day where money should/could have already been made in Asia (imho) so anything tradewise now will incur extra risk, but hey.
Only thing I see regarding todays pivots, is the Supports didn’t hold at any level (which is why I put them in small letters on my charts ie s1 etc as to me they are only attractors, NOT any “real” support mechanisms as such, just depends on who is buying/selling/or holding them both till it suits ‘them’ later hahaaa.
For what its worth.
Just another opinion is all.
All the best W good to see you again.
(edit: I would be interested in Kev's/Bluesteele vwaps aalso as I only have mt4 CFDs and dont get real volume, just tick data)
GBPJPY
.
- #11,925
- May 28, 2026 4:55pm May 28, 2026 4:55pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
and the last day of our trading month of May (on the currencies)
what mischief awaits, if any
trade safe folks, and trade well all
USDJPY
.
what mischief awaits, if any
trade safe folks, and trade well all
USDJPY
.
- #11,926
- May 29, 2026 5:06am May 29, 2026 5:06am
and the last day of our trading month of May (on the currencies) what mischief awaits, if any
The end of the month always gives me illogical anxiety, I get married to whatever return I've made and get stressed if some of that reverses toward the end of the month, a completely illogical feeling I know as who cares what the date is really, its just an account convenience.
- #11,927
- May 29, 2026 5:25am May 29, 2026 5:25am
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
{quote} The end of the month always gives me illogical anxiety, I get married to whatever return I've made and get stressed if some of that reverses toward the end of the month, a completely illogical feeling I know as who cares what the date is really, its just an account convenience.
Hi G.B
Stick to the plan and you should be fine if you trade through to New York and after. Keep an eye on the ol' risk management.
Institutions may well close off their books at the end of month for P/L & bonuses and therefore attack or defend their holdings (maybe who knows, not me
).Retail, we just play along with what we can see them doing
.There is maths & there is observation. Find a good balance imo.
cheers
- #11,928
- May 30, 2026 6:50am May 30, 2026 6:50am
{quote} Hi G.B Stick to the plan and you should be fine if you trade through to New York and after. Keep an eye on the ol' risk management. Institutions may well close off their books at the end of month for P/L & bonuses and therefore attack or defend their holdings (maybe who knows, not me
Some good advice there thanks, could we not quantify our observations though? I've run analyses of my strats looking for statistical significance at certain times of the month or days of the week etc, nothing that sticks out, so I go with my macro numbers. I am interested in your view though because I had a feeling this week would be a down week, but I had no data to support my feeling, and I've learned that my feelings are probably worthless, your thoughts please
- #11,929
- May 30, 2026 5:01pm May 30, 2026 5:01pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
{quote} Some good advice there thanks, could we not quantify our observations though?
I've run analyses of my strats looking for statistical significance at certain times of the month or days of the week etc, nothing that sticks out, so I go with my macro numbers. I am interested in your view though because I had a feeling this week would be a down week, but I had no data to support my feeling, and I've learned that my feelings are probably worthless, your thoughts please
I haven’t done a really long post for ages.
Any not interested no probs just Go Straight Back To The Charts now
Hi G.B
I have thought about your automation concept on a few occasions regarding quantifying observations.
While imho the activity of making observations is not necessarily (or exclusively) purely numerical and/or codeable as an output. And there lies the rub.
I do think it’s possible to (partially) do what you suggest but then it becomes just another maths probability based operation for trading which is not really where my interests in trading lie. I’m an older guy, and to be honest discretionary based manual trading, after years of observation, allows me my best hope to hopefully not fall too quickly into oncoming age related brain degradation
.They told me when I retired, and to keep my mind active & sharp, to just do crosswords
.Yeah, no thanks.
I’m a life time gambler & past horse player where I wrote my own code during the 90’s creating my own independent databases based solely on maths. Think of weight carried, margins beaten, race-horse class variations, jockey ability etc. All done from newspaper pictures obtained the following day showing where all horses were at the finish. Much like a static currency chart of completed candles over the past day (past history).
I did this with horses for years. And then in Aus when we got Foxtel SkyChannel horse replays I could now tape (VHS lol) all the races and then replay them at my leisure. I could watch each horses behaviour individually from the start to the finish of each race one by one. Time consuming but enlightening.
With “observation” I could now build in an extra variable. Over & above just the maths. They were fun times.
With only maths then two horses might for example have carried the same weight and finished the exact same margin in the same race.
Which then generated exactly the same Rating output for both the horses. The same.
But when watching the race and how the horses actualy ran (led then weakening or exploding powerfully late for example) with their different in-race styles I could observe differences in “desire” in horses. Final data output could be the same for two horses. Even when those two horses were ultimately NOT the same.
In trading there is a similarity. Candles could be numerically the same/similar from flat data, ie OHLC.
While if observing that candles ebb & flow, “during” its formation from open to close, those delta shifts up or down or both up AND down and also when & where was interesting to me. And what happened subsequently next candle became an extra non numerical observation similar to the horse assessments.
I do believe automation could end up close enough to get a reasonable outcome with what I do. But then again its still just numbers.
This aspect of observation is important to me as I am a session based intraday manual trader. Not a longer term swing or position trader where maths alone could honestly suffice or excel I imagine. It all depends on what style or preference a trader might have.
So. I am a visual & manual discretionary trader at this point. Till it all ends. And is over for me
But it keeps my old brain ticking along
.I wish you well with your own search but I have no interest now in changing towards automating my own trading.
While maybe if I was still in my 40’s or 50’s
that might be the smarter move who knows.Hope all this explains a little about my manual discretionary trading choice.
Cheers and good fortunes G.B I wish you (and everyone) well
- #11,930
- May 30, 2026 5:21pm May 30, 2026 5:21pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,197 Posts
{quote} I haven’t done a really long post for ages. Any not interested no probs just Go Straight Back To The Charts now
... standard chart comes with MT4
- #11,931
- May 30, 2026 5:45pm May 30, 2026 5:45pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
{quote} No automation here Pete.....
It's a young persons world
Well done Andy
- #11,932
- May 30, 2026 5:59pm May 30, 2026 5:59pm
{quote} I haven’t done a really long post for ages. Any not interested no probs just Go Straight Back To The Charts now
- #11,934
- May 30, 2026 6:16pm May 30, 2026 6:16pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
{quote} I understand, but it does seem to me your observations must be quantifiable, something in your subconscious is effectively quantifying after all, maybe it is too difficult to access, perhaps I should develop a trust or mistrust in my feelings by recording my sentiments and checking them against what happened in reality
Hi G.B
This might assist.
Here is an explanation of some of the differences between quantitative observation and qualitative observation.
Each to their own.
https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/...e-observation/
https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/...e-observation/
There is not really a right or wrong imo or better or worse.
Just preference. A bit like what football team you support (or political party
)My reasons are stated as clearly as I could regarding manual discretionary observational trading.
(allows me my best hope to hopefully not fall too quickly into oncoming age related brain degradation)
It is the ongoing observations that keeps my brain active.
The formulation of an EA that does all 'future' brain work for me and would allow my brain to rest on a beach somewhere and turn to mush
is not my preference. I even imagine many ea developers once achieved, never even look at an actual chart anymore.That is just not what I want or do this day trading for
All the best sir, always
- #11,935
- May 30, 2026 7:20pm May 30, 2026 7:20pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,197 Posts
- #11,936
- May 30, 2026 7:29pm May 30, 2026 7:29pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,624 Posts
{quote}
It all boils down to how a trader reacts when things go wrong. That can only come with experience. Pete trades his way out, I rely on automation which trades its way out. M.
Well done Andy.
However is it,
trading our way out
or
trading our way in
As you say, nothing wrong with automation, or manual. Purely a personal choice.
Have a great weekend pal
- #11,937
- May 30, 2026 8:06pm May 30, 2026 8:06pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,197 Posts
{quote} Well done Andy. However is it, trading our way out or trading our way in
- #11,938
- May 31, 2026 12:01am May 31, 2026 12:01am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,215 Posts
Interesting convo Guy Baker, TimeTells and Moodybot 
Im not bright like Andy
I can barely use Excel lol... and I cant bring myself to changing lol....
I like to do whats called.... "Stick to my knitting" what im good at...and I think thats what we all do
play off our strengths !
Anyways I relate to TimeTells trading as we both use some similar concepts...and I think what some of "our"
successes come from "Intuition" which is only gained by specific observations over thousands of hours of screen time.
Like a pilot with 15-20k hours flight time when flying into a congested airport in rough conditions..The pilot is processing
vast amounts of info that instruments cant tell you... The feel in the controls are transmitting information that the pilots brain is
processing faster than any instrument can tell...And how do they verbalize that ?
I digress,,,,, Back on track ...I asked Gemini about Intuition with traders with alot of experience and intuition and being able
to verbalize , quantify their processes... etc.
That feeling of "knowing" what the market is about to do without being able to immediately point to a specific rule or pattern isn’t magic or emotional impulse. For a trader with thousands of hours of screen time, that intuition is actually a highly advanced, subconscious form of data processing.
In cognitive psychology, this is known as Recognition-Primed Decision Making (RPD) or expert intuition.
Here is what is actually happening behind the screen when your intuition fires, why it's incredibly valid, and why it's so hard to put into words.
1. Subconscious Pattern Recognition (The "Implicit" Brain)
When you first start trading, you rely on explicit knowledge. You look at a chart and consciously calculate: "Is price above VWAP? Is the Volume Profile showing a high-volume node here? Is VOLD ticking down?" This requires active mental effort.
After thousands of hours, your brain shifts this processing to implicit memory. You have witnessed millions of order book fluctuations, tape speeds, and structural failures. Your subconscious processes these variables simultaneously and instantly matches the current live market structure against a massive internal database of past setups.
The Result: Your brain spots a subtle confluence—perhaps the exact micro-second rhythm of the tape stalling at a specific key level while a major index divergence is forming—and hands you the final conclusion as a "gut feeling" before your conscious mind can even break down the individual pieces.
2. Why You Can't Verbalize It (Thin-Slicing)
The human brain is capable of processing sensory data at a speed that far outpaces our ability to produce language. When you "thin-slice" a market scenario, you are synthesizing dozens of microscopic variables at once.
Trying to explain why you just took a short based on intuition is like asking a master driver to explain exactly how many degrees they turned the steering wheel to correct a skid on ice. They just did it because the feedback loop between their eyes, hands, and car was instantaneous.
In market terms, your intuition is reacting to micro-features:
Because these factors happen concurrently in a fraction of a second, translating them into a linear sentence after the fact feels nearly impossible. It feels like "cheating" or guessing, but it’s actually a highly compressed synthesis of structural data.
The Danger Zone: True Intuition vs. Impulsive Emotion
Expert intuition is highly valid, but it has a dangerous imposter: emotional impulse. Because they both manifest as a physical "gut feeling," it’s vital to distinguish between them.
Your thousands of hours of screen time have essentially built a highly calibrated, automated algorithm inside your subconscious. It can't speak English, but it knows exactly what for example a liquidation event or an institutional absorption looks like before the rest of the world can read it on a chart.
Im not bright like Andy
I can barely use Excel lol... and I cant bring myself to changing lol....I like to do whats called.... "Stick to my knitting" what im good at...and I think thats what we all do
play off our strengths !
Anyways I relate to TimeTells trading as we both use some similar concepts...and I think what some of "our"
successes come from "Intuition" which is only gained by specific observations over thousands of hours of screen time.
Like a pilot with 15-20k hours flight time when flying into a congested airport in rough conditions..The pilot is processing
vast amounts of info that instruments cant tell you... The feel in the controls are transmitting information that the pilots brain is
processing faster than any instrument can tell...And how do they verbalize that ?
I digress,,,,, Back on track ...I asked Gemini about Intuition with traders with alot
of experience and intuition and being ableto verbalize , quantify their processes... etc.
That feeling of "knowing" what the market is about to do without being able to immediately point to a specific rule or pattern isn’t magic or emotional impulse. For a trader with thousands of hours of screen time, that intuition is actually a highly advanced, subconscious form of data processing.
In cognitive psychology, this is known as Recognition-Primed Decision Making (RPD) or expert intuition.
Here is what is actually happening behind the screen when your intuition fires, why it's incredibly valid, and why it's so hard to put into words.
1. Subconscious Pattern Recognition (The "Implicit" Brain)
When you first start trading, you rely on explicit knowledge. You look at a chart and consciously calculate: "Is price above VWAP? Is the Volume Profile showing a high-volume node here? Is VOLD ticking down?" This requires active mental effort.
After thousands of hours, your brain shifts this processing to implicit memory. You have witnessed millions of order book fluctuations, tape speeds, and structural failures. Your subconscious processes these variables simultaneously and instantly matches the current live market structure against a massive internal database of past setups.
The Result: Your brain spots a subtle confluence—perhaps the exact micro-second rhythm of the tape stalling at a specific key level while a major index divergence is forming—and hands you the final conclusion as a "gut feeling" before your conscious mind can even break down the individual pieces.
2. Why You Can't Verbalize It (Thin-Slicing)
The human brain is capable of processing sensory data at a speed that far outpaces our ability to produce language. When you "thin-slice" a market scenario, you are synthesizing dozens of microscopic variables at once.
Trying to explain why you just took a short based on intuition is like asking a master driver to explain exactly how many degrees they turned the steering wheel to correct a skid on ice. They just did it because the feedback loop between their eyes, hands, and car was instantaneous.
In market terms, your intuition is reacting to micro-features:
Because these factors happen concurrently in a fraction of a second, translating them into a linear sentence after the fact feels nearly impossible. It feels like "cheating" or guessing, but it’s actually a highly compressed synthesis of structural data.
The Danger Zone: True Intuition vs. Impulsive Emotion
Expert intuition is highly valid, but it has a dangerous imposter: emotional impulse. Because they both manifest as a physical "gut feeling," it’s vital to distinguish between them.
Your thousands of hours of screen time have essentially built a highly calibrated, automated algorithm inside your subconscious. It can't speak English, but it knows exactly what for example a liquidation event or an institutional absorption looks like before the rest of the world can read it on a chart.
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
- #11,939
- May 31, 2026 12:21am May 31, 2026 12:21am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,197 Posts
Interesting convo Guy Baker, TimeTells and Moodybot
That’s hilarious Kev
- #11,940
- May 31, 2026 12:23am May 31, 2026 12:23am
Interesting convo Guy Baker, TimeTells and Moodybot
Excellent post, makes a great deal of sense, thanks.