Flying Dutchman

As you asked, it’s the one up the Jacksie then down the other way. I left scratch marks on the wall.
They apparently wipe the end first…. and stay awake and watch the camera on the tv!! Great viewing!!!

Holy shit -- no thank you. I'll opt out of that one... The fact you can share a humorous comment says a lot about you. Sir -- my hat is off to you...

No probs mate… the threads are entertaining

mid-week wednesday in asia

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Personally I have never really looked into these Prop firms.. I know Profitfarmer / Zoltan has used successfully as Moodybot has as well. But they actually make very good sense and here's my reasoning why.

Successful trading comes down to a few key things none of which have anything to do with indicators or lines or volume etc... Some would lead you to believe that successful trading requires their “secret sauce” their method or their special indicator.. This only comes from those that want to sell you something.

Successful trading comes from your mind and understanding how it works. We are own worst enemies when it comes to trading as our “reptilian / primal” brains are wired for survival. This goes against how we should react when in the markets. For we tend to be fearful when we should be hopeful and we are hopeful when we should fearful. For successful trading one almost has to think opposite of our regular thinking in how we see things.

How many traders don't use a SL? Or a hedging plan ? How many traders move their stops as the market nears? Truly successful traders that make real money.. Large money they don't play those games. They take their loss and move on.. Successful traders add to their winning positions as well. Very few do that.

And what does this all relate to? Its Money Management.. MM is the only real secret..but of course its not a secret its just not a “Hot topic” Its not fancy arrows on a chart or lines running all over the place or some special indicator that calculates the Delta of Lunar cycles or other nonsense.

Why do traders fail? Why do brokers advertise 77.8%,or whatever, of traders lose all of their capital with us.
Why...well I will tell you exactly why and why not.
Its not because they don't know how to trade..
Its not because they don't have a system with an edge.
Its got nothing to do with indicators they havent discovered.
Its got nothing to do with Gann, Fibs, Murray Math, Hurst Elliot nope

OK so why do traders fail...Lets just look at some GASP DATA !

FXCM has some great data over many years and millions upon millions of trades....

MILLIONS AND MILLIONS OF TRADE DATA....

Here is the Rub ...and this is only a small part of the data available.
12 million trades and most trades//traders winning the majority of their trades.

Ex. EUR/USD In this pair 59% of trader were profitable trades. 41% were losers.
Average win 65 pips...Average loss 127 pips... (Side note how do you lose 127 pips on the Euro lol.)

GBP/JPY 66% of all trades successful gaining 52 pips avg.
34% of all trades losing 122 pips avg.

TRADERS FAIL BECAUSE OF POOR MONEY MGMT.. RISK CONTROL NOTHING ELSE.
WITH THEIR EGOS GETTING IN THEIR WAY .

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundam...ose_money.html


It all comes down to Money management /Risk Control the operative word...
More deeply its human psychology back to the reptilian brain...i digress...

Which all leads me in a big around about way back to PROP FIRMS.....

I unequivocally believe that Prop Firms can be the most important tool nowadays to help a trader become successful...

Without a shadow of a doubt... For they demand strict Risk Control.. and from what I understand they have back office metrics that help you understand your trading in that regards...

Yiu dont need Forex Factorys latest greatest indi or buzzword.. You need to be strict with yourself and disciplined with your MM..

Trading is about high personal performance. You see traders are not Born..They are made it is all learned behaviours in how we deal with our losses and or wins.. It all sounds so easy but its not. Trading is relatively simple but it sure isnt easy to do successfully over time.

Put yourself under the microscope of someone watching over you (prop firm) and watch your trading improve like you haven't seem before. I truly believe they are a huge asset..and who gives a rip how their business model works... They pay out in real $$$ and that's what matters.

MFF paid out something like 6million plus in Feb to over 2700 people with largest amount of 55k or something like that and hundreds in the 5 figures..

So may of us are so attached to our egos that we cant even accept these facts.. unbelievable... oh well...

And no I don't trade with a prop firm .. But Andys questions and comments got me to thinking... as personally I have always thought of them to be on the scam side of this industry. BUT I stand corrected .
Makes me wonder why some of these guys with 99-100% WR and big daily % gains aren't loading up with multiple 6 figure prop firm accounts and making some real money

Lastly remember “THE BEST LOSER WINS”

Cheers
Blue

Ha.

I’ve been ignored by Roodydoo on his fishing expedition!
Oops.....



The last one that banned me, four weeks ago, had a commercial link that led to Facebook accounts fishing for new punters.

He disappeared, very quickly!

Update.

Im banned from Rudydoo’s, but check out his thread, post 559.......

After I was accused of doing something with his discord group.... what a coward.

Bluesteele... I agree 100%...money management is king.
I've seen trader friends over the years completely obsessed with win rates and that almost always leads down the road of adding to losing positions...it can work out great 95% of the time, but oh boy, that one big loss will sort out your account balance. I'm a long term scalper and nearly every position I close has at some point been out of the money more than the profit I secure at the end. I know that's not right...I've been trying to change these past few years as my hair turns more grey but damn...these brains of ours are the real devil.

The people who move price know this of course. A candlestick chart is not random. It's a work of art. Beautifully designed to mess with the human brain. To entice you in to play but then inflict as much pain and indecision as possible . Of course, over the years you see all the tricks they are playing but it's still not easy to play "their" game. Sometimes I think if I'd done the exact opposite of every trade I'd ever taken, I'd still be in profit..but a lot quicker

So yes, a prop firm is a great idea to hammer out these bad drawdown habits and really drill money management into a trader. I think even more so for newer traders..before they pick up the bad habit in the first place..as it sure is one hard habit to kick.

This shit had to be inversed. I was trying my old weekly prediction that worked perfectly 1 to 2 times per 5. Maybe one step closer to the puzzle. I think we are going down to 1.30 now.
Cheers

Simnz asked what difference I had made to money management when I advertised, with Fanfair FTMO, which was used just as an example.
That one change that I had made to my Money Management within my EA was to record the current DD.
I use individual pair T/P but also overall basket T/P as I consider all 28 and will have multiple pairs and multiple trades on any given pair.
No trade is taken without previous being in profit.
So no adding to losing trades.
Trailing Stops are moved depending on number of trades and depending on which part of the Peak Formation the pair is in.
Lot size is based on risk in dollars that I am prepared to give away on any one trade, so no guessing.
Each EA individually on its pair records max DD of the open trade/s, in doing so overall basket T/P is set 1/1 with DD, so if DD hits -$100 as an example then basket T/P will be set at +$100. Each swing of DD is matched.
That I believe was a turning point for me, and Kev(Bluesteele) was bang on when he said Money Management is all crucial.
Chatting to Dave last week, the same, the turning point for Dave was Money Management.
He also said he should listen more to his wife but we all agreed over a blokes chat that we should remain in control

A picture is worth a thousand words! Well a picture with some words on it. Thx.

cheers aud

In fx there has been a recent AND harder focus on the ever growing call for ….

“show me the data, show me the data, I can’t trade without the data etc”

(and which a trader may well then have to purchase from a 3rd party just to trade
or else PAY another day-to-day trader to see their secret workings).


While FIRST, there is always another and more innate way, that is a FREE avenue available to traders
for them to commence observing, in detail, some of the key elements of price manoeuvres.

ie is it so well known that not all candles, or all price actions (PA) are the most important ones in our market analysis or structure assessments
(giving rise maybe to the false assumption, imho, that our markets are random).


When we allow ourselves to concentrate, observe & integrate PA,
and then separate the wheat from the chaff
well the Market Mechanics & Behaviours which are visually present on our charts
for all to see
can hopefully be utilised & employed at their most useful timing
in the trades & sessions in which we engage.


Believe in ourselves first! is a fair mantra

Then we can use all available data, tools, indis etc, which can assist yes, for ‘quick assessments”,
at SPECIFIC TIMINGS, and therefore assist trading to be more viable & valid for the trader.


So, Friday it is!

Good fortunes to all as they (yep they, why not lol) wrap up for us, the ‘week that was’.

Thanks for the continued support of the thread Pete. As always a first class post, and of course thanks to those who contributed to the thread.

One very clear message is that there is no requirement whatsoever to pay for, or invest in after market go faster stripes!

Open a chart and invest some time …… look at the process of how the Algo constructs the charts.

Targets first, which are preset and then revisited.

Pete had shown countless examples.

Check back at Bluesteeles post regarding the box and work out the probability, he did, he knows the numbers and a damn sight more as well.


Some very clever people have discounted the approach, lines and this thread. George said look with clear eyes, drop the ingrained misconceptions…
I guess some just couldn’t accept that price has a pre-defined structure.

BWilliam demonstrated the predefined structure with calls in this thread of Monthly High/Lows, to the pip. In advance. Looking forward to BW posting again.

Andy.

An inflection point refers to a key event that changes the trajectory of some process or situation related to the economy or society. a pivot area?

an failed attempt to sell 1941.99 on 24/3 after london session rejection pin . i have asked the guys on SMC to help analyse the failure too for compare.

i would like to see the similar approach from George's target, not random behavior etc could you pls help me to show it in your usual way... it will help me to gain experience

Hi ntk,

The forex phrase pivot point (determined by formula)

and the forex phrase inflection point, which I have used
(a stalling area of price that could also be identified as accumulation/consolidation)

are mutually exclusive and not related to the same price line on a chart by mathematical data.


ie conventional pivot points are set BEFORE the start of each period, day, week, month.
Based on the previous periods data.

Inflection (areas) are dynamic and ‘occur’ during the course of the trading day.
And are then observable (you can box them until they breakout, or maybe they will fake and flip)

Both pivots & inflections show on our charts best referenced as price (ie straight horizontal lines on our chart).

Pivots though, are hard set at ONE price line per period,

While inflections can encompass a broader Range of price.
(their range also being variable AND also observable on different timeframes).


(edit: I do not consider inflections points, and how I observe them,
as any form of support or resistance either, merely a 'pause' in activity for however long that duration)

(I will have a read and look at your following 'chart' post later after my breakfast )

Hi ntk,

I don't trade Gold myself but I had a good look this morning at the chart, cheers.

On my chart (IC-live) I couldn't find an exact 1941.99 failure on Thu 2022-3-24, but I'm in Oz and my 24/3 (thur) might be different to your 24/3 (fri)


BUT. My Fri 2022-3-25



That London spike and then flop

(95 pips, is that correct wow lol ?)

looks to me like the classic “Fake N Flip” Market mechanics & Market behaviour

that happens all the time with the currencies that I trade.


I don’t trade Gold but to see George’s Targets & activities like the FnF occur on a Gold chart as well,
indicates to me that the Gold market is no different, being a well controlled market, as are all the currency others.

Well I guess it had to be the “same” market behaviour, maybe,
I mean, we are not actually "filtering our pans here for residual alluvial gold".

This is nothing but a “paper” gold price, that is traded around the speculative markets.

But if I were a gold storager, and I looked at the spot price of gold when the market opened
and then ONLY AGAIN at the spot price when the market closed (day open-day close)
then I might have incorrectly concluded that the price of gold did not change for the whole of Friday.

But on our charts we can see that maybe some fortunes were made as well as some fortunes lost by the variation in price during the trading day.

My analysis then would be, and only from my non-speculative experience with this “unused” commodity (gold),
is that on the charts below, it looks to me to be just like ….

“business as usual”

all the best, ntk


(edit" sorry, if you DID mean thur and the candle at 15:30 chart time which bottoms on my chart at 1942.56, just a 0.57 difference which is okay, then
that failed attempt to sell low there to me was maybe just THE taking out of the earlier George 15m Swing Target at 13.45 chart-time).

.

(edit" sorry, if you DID mean thur and the candle at 15:30 chart time which bottoms on my chart at 1942.56, just a 0.57 difference which is okay, then
that failed attempt to sell low there to me was maybe just THE taking out of the earlier George 15m Swing Target at 13.45 chart-time).


.

My focus is on reactive trading though I don't find any fault with those indulging in prediction game. It is just that I enjoy the game of watching how auctioneers do their job without accepting a fee and following their tracks.

I treat consolidation zones being formed on a daily basis is an exercise regularly done by the official market makers appointed by the exchanges to balance today's books. They have access to the orders books of futures and futures options. I track them and make no forecasts or any kind of news analysis. Except to note down the existence the probable catalysts by using FF Calendar and following geo-political news .

Help comes to me from the M1 data I collect on the frequencies of the bull, bear candles and how the market makers balance them on a daily basis.
I am attaching it for your use since you, like me, are a data buff. You can get a picture in the case of the futures thanks to MT4 brokers converting almost all the speculation assets converted into derivatives, called CFD or contracts for difference. Accurate data can be obtained only by using brokers who derive CFDs from actual futures price feed and not the feeds from different market makers. MT4 brokers offering Futures price feeds also don't charge swap fees, don't inflate spreads, and are content to make their money from adding spreads as their brokerage fee. They are popular because they offer higher leverage than the exchanges can provide and their contract sizes are much smaller than those of the exchanges. Anyone with $500 can easily trade while the Exchanges need Good faith deposits of at least $1000 for 1 micro-level contract value.

The spreadsheet helps me find which instruments produce high volatility and high number of consolidation or sideways zones, so that I have the chance to make daily income. My trading tool is meant for risk-averse traders who can manually do the range trading or use execution bot to gain 15 times more speed of execution than a human being can do.

Over-the-market (OTC) or spot transactions, like Forex, are known to a centralized so-called think tank sponsored by the major liquidity providers of OTM instruments. Spot may look like a decentralized market but it is not. A US think tank collects Macro-level statistics and passes them on to their sponsors. The think-tank caters to the needs of invisible cartels of liquidity providers and the market shakeouts or flash crashes are done to balance the books.

For me the speculation trading market is like an ocean. I provide mql for the benefit of coding learners. I enjoy paying the coders as well as sharing the mqls with the learners. I don't find any stealers who want to re-sell them because they have burned their hands by having digital promotions that fetches them $1 as revenue (not income) for every $100 spent on marketing efforts. Survivors now offer all the indicators and EAs free of cost and use the email addresses collected to get Google Ad revenues or promote some brokers for getting customer referral fees. At the most, my mql will land in their hands and again it will be offered free of cost.

However, the mql I have attached is an unpaid one and a great job done by celebrated FF coder BlueRain, who like all his predecessors, thought good programmers can be equally good traders. Unfortunately, he and his predecessors have paid a price to realise that it is a brain game and not a coding game. All of them leave FF for this reason. As a trader, I have also travelled the same journey of sustaining losses and learning from them. I think we all go through this process when we attempt trial-and-error methods to self-train or get trained by non-trading Gurus.

The developers who are still active on FF are using it as a legitimate showcase of their skills to attract customers. Thank God, they know trading is not their cup and provide a niche service for traders like me having some ideas.

Important is the traders' capacity to raise money and train their minds (or brains) very similar to done by sports guys regularly practising on demos or real small value accounts. Only practice and gaining experience is what counts.

In that direction, established proprietary firms are really doing a good job though you can take their offer of funding with a pinch of salt. If you mentally accept this, you will become a competent trader by having them as mentors.

If you find it worthwhile, can you please use the spreadsheet provided earlier to define the fake and flips in terms of thresholds of time (or bars) and pips ?
Because that will help establish a pattern of how many times the fake and flips happen during a day in M1 timeframe. The spreadsheet can be used for forward testing or now trading. If you change the index from 0 to 1 or more, then you can lookback at the past.

Measuring pullbacks or consolidation zones in terms of small, medium, and big sizes will help the forecasters of continuation of trends or reversals.