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Flying Dutchman

  • #8,021
  • May 4, 2023 9:24am May 4, 2023 9:24am
Oil Chart, Market Structure Playbook :

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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,022
  • May 4, 2023 9:35am May 4, 2023 9:35am
@spzd
@Bluesteele

Testing Nas100 still. Demo only
The "Blue" Box
Price came back to hit the open and dropped - would have been a straightforward channel trade ( Roadmap) - Laura's thread.
But look at end of hour box -price might go long?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,023
  • May 4, 2023 9:36am May 4, 2023 9:36am
Quoting turnip15
Guys -regarding the demo E/J -why did it collapse after the open and drop to brn way below. }
Simple answer is Market Structure.

Price tries to rally (very weakly) from Day Open 2am GMT & hits NY Close and falls during Franky Session.

Another Rally back up to the same level again, this time by the London traders 8am GMT, entice retail to Buy ( remember, the wrong way first ?) & fails
at the NY Close again.

London traders have another go at taking Longs 13.00 GMT ( notice the slow staircase grind up before - weakness) but fail at Daily Open with NY traders piling in now.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,024
  • May 4, 2023 9:54am May 4, 2023 9:54am
Not trading now but have drawn in SP500 box and Fibo 50 to watch what happens
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,025
  • May 4, 2023 11:01am May 4, 2023 11:01am
Quoting turnip15
Not trading now but have drawn in SP500 box and Fibo 50 to watch what happens {image}
Well that was interesting - up through 50 Fibo and hit level above ( possible target). Then crossed down through 50 Fibo for short towards lower ADR
and "Roadmap" stop out.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #8,026
  • May 4, 2023 11:56am May 4, 2023 11:56am
Quoting Inthebox
comment on level please. what is your directional bias? {image}
gu how many got slaughtered in a ranging day?
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ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #8,027
  • May 4, 2023 12:12pm May 4, 2023 12:12pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} gu how many got slaughtered in a ranging day? {image}
I got stopped out twice, BE though. Went in my favor 20+ both times but failed to bank, was expecting a big drop like EU that never came, well yet.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #8,028
  • May 4, 2023 12:12pm May 4, 2023 12:12pm
Dow(US30) and S&P are correlated pairs, when one pair breaks the 10:30 box low or high it is a confirmation of the opposite side of the range will be the high or low for the rest of the NY session for both pairs, with a 85% probability, depending on the time of the year it can be up to 90%.
The other pair will attempt to do the same within a short time. Look at the DOW and S&P right now, the DOW broke the box (candle close outside)
so the probability is that the high of the range will be the NY session high, only a 15% it will not.
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #8,029
  • May 4, 2023 12:20pm May 4, 2023 12:20pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote} I got stopped out twice, BE though. Went in my favor 20+ both times but failed to bank, was expecting a big drop like EU that never came, well yet.
what helped me is the d1 directional bias.
after a big push up yesterday, likely to range the next day so as to get ready to break the high.
ITB - Seeing Orderliness amongst 'Randomness'
  • #8,030
  • May 4, 2023 12:23pm May 4, 2023 12:23pm
Quoting tonyb123
Dow(US30) and S&P are correlated pairs, when one pair breaks the 10:30 box low or high it is a confirmation of the opposite side of the range will be the high or low for the rest of the NY session for both pairs, with a 85% probability, depending on the time of the year it can be up to 90%. The other pair will attempt to do the same within a short time. Look at the DOW and S&P right now, the DOW broke the box (candle close outside) so the probability is that the high of the range will be the NY session high, only a 15% it will not.{image}
The only real difference between ALL the major indices is the magnitude of the daily moves. This is a result of the weighting given the underlying equities.

My suggestion for indices is pick ONE, learn it, and $$$$$.


edit: there are subtle nuances between all of them
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #8,031
  • May 4, 2023 12:32pm May 4, 2023 12:32pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} The only real difference between ALL the major indices is the magnitude of the daily moves. This is a result of the weighting given the underlying equities. My suggestion for indices is pick ONE, learn it, and $$$$$. edit: there are subtle nuances between all of them
I use these 2 for the divergence of the key levels H M L. I trade this with my grid levels and swing market structure as well. All work nicely together for any pair I trade.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #8,032
  • May 4, 2023 12:33pm May 4, 2023 12:33pm
Quoting Inthebox
{quote} what helped me is the d1 directional bias. after a big push up yesterday, likely to range the next day so as to get ready to break the high.
Buy the Dips from the Week / Month Opens
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,033
  • May 4, 2023 12:41pm May 4, 2023 12:41pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} I use these 2 for the divergence of the key levels H M L. I trade this with my grid levels and swing market structure as well. All work nicely together for any pair I trade.
Was but a suggestion for those who want to trade the indices with the realization that where one goes it is almost assured the others will also. Usually simultaneously.

Similar to the ones who use the dollar index to trade the EU. Kind of making things harder for themselves.

I don't trade grid per se, but I "see" the market that way. I do think it is more geometric than purely mathematical.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #8,034
  • May 4, 2023 12:49pm May 4, 2023 12:49pm
Quoting tonyb123
Dow(US30) and S&P are correlated pairs, when one pair breaks the 10:30 box low or high it is a confirmation of the opposite side of the range will be the high or low for the rest of the NY session for both pairs, with a 85% probability, depending on the time of the year it can be up to 90%. The other pair will attempt to do the same within a short time. Look at the DOW and S&P right now, the DOW broke the box (candle close outside) so the probability is that the high of the range will be the NY session high, only a 15% it will not.{image}
Short set up off 50% level US30 1hr box...
Oops posted before done lol... as well SPX off the top end and Opens

Tom Hougaard often uses the divergence between indices for a bias... Many ways to skin the bark off the tree!
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,035
  • May 4, 2023 12:59pm May 4, 2023 12:59pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} Short set up off 50% level US30 1hr box... Oops posted before done lol... as well SPX off the top end and Opens Tom Hougaard often uses the divergence between indices for a bias... Many ways to skin the bark off the tree!
Took shorts on both pairs, Have a little resistance on the 50% of S&P but I expect it to break down to get liquidity at the lows.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #8,036
  • May 4, 2023 1:36pm May 4, 2023 1:36pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Took shorts on both pairs, Have a little resistance on the 50% of S&P but I expect it to break down to get liquidity at the lows.
And down she goes . Boomer of a short off the top... With the US30 closing outside of the box...exactly as you stated Tony..gave a very high probability short off the top of the box of the SPX...well done to those who captured this... A Risk of maybe 3pts for 20 pts so far...

Patience has been key today...I took losses on Oil today due to poor self mgmt...one of those days lol...
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,037
  • May 4, 2023 2:05pm May 4, 2023 2:05pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Well that was interesting - up through 50 Fibo and hit level above ( possible target). Then crossed down through 50 Fibo for short towards lower ADR and "Roadmap" stop out. {image}
50 is not always their target. When it is they let you know imo.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #8,038
  • May 4, 2023 3:11pm May 4, 2023 3:11pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} And down she goes . Boomer of a short off the top... With the US30 closing outside of the box...exactly as you stated Tony..gave a very high probability short off the top of the box of the SPX...well done to those who captured this... A Risk of maybe 3pts for 20 pts so far... Patience has been key today...I took losses on Oil today due to poor self mgmt...one of those days lol...
Just looked at the Sp500 , there was a whole lot of levels above where you could short from, PDL, DO, NY Close, NY Open
Not to mention BOS & Retest same as with Brent Oil today.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #8,039
  • May 4, 2023 3:28pm May 4, 2023 3:28pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Just looked at the Sp500 , there was a whole lot of levels above where you could short from, PDL, DO, NY Close, NY Open Not to mention BOS & Retest same as with Brent Oil today.
100% Shabs... Confluences abound... Low of Tokyo session...Tokyo open...the first major retracement of the SPX at 11:05 kissed the low of Asia 4075 approx.. depending on broker...there ya go again ..quarters ... Lol..

Not many trades that I will pull the trigger on based on simply one level etc...it has to be multiple confluences... But the SPX high of box...with a short bias...(as was today) I will just pull the trigger at the top and place a tight stop...more often than not it pays handsomely...

Markets have been very very organized of late...except for that 450 pip Oil spike yesterday...wowsers...
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #8,040
  • May 4, 2023 4:02pm May 4, 2023 4:02pm
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} 100% Shabs... Confluences abound... Low of Tokyo session...Tokyo open...the first major retracement of the SPX at 11:05 kissed the low of Asia 4075 approx.. depending on broker...there ya go again ..quarters ... Lol.. Not many trades that I will pull the trigger on based on simply one level etc...it has to be multiple confluences... But the SPX high of box...with a short bias...(as was today) I will just pull the trigger at the top and place a tight stop...more often than not it pays handsomely... Markets have been very very organized of...
Yep - even I spotted a few
( Post 8025)
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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