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  • #581
  • Edited 7:44pm Aug 26, 2021 7:30pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting Pumi
They say there's a consolidation and then after it is followed by a manipulation. After that you get an expansion. I think this is incorrect. A consolidation, accumulation, distribution, re-accumulation, re-distribution, trading range, or whatever you call it should just be called the manipulation. The end result of a consolidation is manipulation and therefore it make senses to say when a consolidation starts the market is entering the manipulation mode or process. The final product of a consolidation is a manipulation and then after it is followed...
Hi Pumi

Nice post and chart, here is my 2 cents worth.

Without manipulation, we wouldn’t have expansion and the market would be untradable for retail traders.
I make most of my money trading against this manipulation because it’s inefficient moves that are the most predictable.

Expansion on the other hand is a wild untamed beast that doesn’t always move as we hope due to many fake moves and spikes.
The choice I need to make every day is do I fight the big players with higher predictably trades setups or join the big players with lower predictably trade setups.

The choice I prefer is to fight the bastards with a smile.

Many years ago, Jesse Livermore made money in the stock markets by reading the tape -

Why wouldn’t we still use it, nothings really changed in 100 years.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #582
  • Aug 26, 2021 8:19pm Aug 26, 2021 8:19pm
Quoting Pumi
I can see 2 things - manipulation and expansion. {image}
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Pumi Nice post and chart, here is my 2 cents worth.
Without manipulation, we wouldn’t have expansion and the market would be untradable for retail traders.
Expansion on the other hand is a wild untamed beast that doesn’t always move as we hope due to many fake moves and spikes.


Nice work Pumi & RickM

Without manipulation, we wouldn’t have expansion and the market would be untradable for retail traders.

I couldn’t agree more here.


How we trade it, of course, is something again. And something that over 10,000 threads alone on Forex Factory try to sweet spot.

Expansion on the other hand is a wild untamed beast that doesn’t always move as we hope due to many fake moves and spikes.

This area of activity has been my main interest and study over the past 3-4 months now. Mainly because I had the time.


Myself, and others incl Moody & BW I imagine, in their own studies came to “similar (though not identical) conclusions” that …

when the market is in this expansion stage, that THE expansion, is actually going SOMEWHERE (regardless of how it meanders there).
(and the “somewhere is just SO important to this conjecture).

I call this SOMEWHERE

TARGETS, in fact I choose to call them algo repeating targets

(because they repeat lol, sometimes for 13 years as I found out, and all looking as if it is done algorithmically, ie not by exactly the SAME amount of buyers & sellers at the same place & time, OR by the same amount of dollars by lots in the market at that time).

Rick’s method of trading seems to me more concise and fine-tuned to the “moment”, and therefore very effective.
  • #583
  • Aug 26, 2021 8:21pm Aug 26, 2021 8:21pm
My trading of my algo repeating targets MUST include an important fact, well to me,
that there is ALWAYS residing on the chart a target BOTH above and below the current now target.

This then, is my only, but extremely important quandary to solve.


Each trader can only examine what folks are saying here, with all the multiplicity of methodologies available.

Including such things as Indicator Assessment, Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis, Price Action Patterns etc.

where folks are essentially, imho, Gambling on event outcomes based on the above “external opinions”.


And these methods are in fact fine, I have no problems with anyone using them.
Just that they are found (let’s say mathematically just for the point of this exercise) to have a …

50% success rate

AND, by definition

a 50% failure rate

UNLESS

the “trader themselves” can incorporate their own filtering system to take the probabilities to a greater percentage than just 50%.

Trade well and keep your eye on the forex ball.
  • #584
  • Edited 10:43pm Aug 26, 2021 10:27pm | Edited 10:43pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers BW, Your "inner' algo detail is very interesting to observe.
The 'simple' work I have done, is just what I call levels.
For the GU below I only include the now level together with the next upper & lower level,
in my view and there are many other levels way above and below price (these were on my own charts, over a week ago)
And, again, are NOT signals, I cannot emphasise that enough. . {image}

The market is JUST WHAT IT IS and no more. I can only post in good faith exactly what I see.


Where is GU today, right now and where did it come from ?

Observe the markets as best you can, and
Trade wisely & carefully.


My post above was from six five weeks ago. And the attached chart is from that post

.
Attached Image
  • #585
  • Edited 11:06pm Aug 26, 2021 10:28pm | Edited 11:06pm
Quoting Pumi
They say there's a consolidation and then after it is followed by a manipulation. After that you get an expansion. I think this is incorrect. A consolidation, accumulation, distribution, re-accumulation, re-distribution, trading range, or whatever you call it should just be called the manipulation. The end result of a consolidation is manipulation and therefore it make senses to say when a consolidation starts the market is entering the manipulation mode or process. The final product of a consolidation is a manipulation and then after it is followed...
Hi Pumi,

In my humble view arrows marking down are manipulation, what you marked manipulation is actually consolidation to me and expansion is rightly the order flow.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: b4f55b9e0eaa22d8e7892fd41c00f348.png Size: 230 KB


apart from what is manipulation or expansion, we need to see, does our understanding/system allows us to identify and trade these moves or suggest us to stay sidelines.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #586
  • Aug 26, 2021 10:46pm Aug 26, 2021 10:46pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Pumi, In my humble view arrows marking down are manipulation, what you marked is manipulation is actually consolidation to me and expansion rightly the order flow. {image} apart from what is manipulation or expansion, we need to see, does our understanding/system allows us to identify and trade these moves or suggest us to stay sidelines.
Hi Bilal, you ask the question I have asked many times earlier.

Look at the left bottom low 1.3601 to the high 1.3770, 170pips swing right across the entire computer screen. Your question is aimed at this giant move. What you think the answer is?
Know what you trade
  • #587
  • Aug 26, 2021 10:53pm Aug 26, 2021 10:53pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} Nice work Pumi & RickM Without manipulation, we wouldn’t have expansion and the market would be untradable for retail traders. I couldn’t agree more here. How we trade it, of course, is something again. And something that over 10,000 threads alone on Forex Factory try to sweet spot. Expansion on the other hand is a wild untamed beast that doesn’t always move as we hope due to many fake moves and spikes. This area of activity has been my main interest and study over the past 3-4 months now. Mainly because I had the time. Myself, and...
13 number is unlucky in some countries.

just for fun
"Exchange of hands"
  • #588
  • Aug 26, 2021 11:04pm Aug 26, 2021 11:04pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Bilal, you ask the question I have asked many times earlier. Look at the left bottom low 1.3601 to the high 1.3770, 170pips swing right across the entire computer screen. Your question is aimed at this giant move. What you think the answer is?
Hi BW

The giant move is the order flow it was not in question. Market moves only up and down (can be a manipulation or trend) or sideways (although in side ways it is moving up and down, the only difference is the range.)

The question is to have a system which should explain me what ever side market moves:
- does my system helps me identify that
- once identified does it allow me to capitalize it or decided to stay sideline.

otherwise i am on a failed system.

why the giant move up is the order flow i am sure you have the answer otherwise we can discuss that too.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #589
  • Aug 26, 2021 11:20pm Aug 26, 2021 11:20pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} 13 number is unlucky in some countries. just for fun

Hahaaa, cheers Bilal

Triskaidekaphobia; the psychological avoidance of the number 13


Tarot; the 13th card is ....

BUT, in

Ancient Egypt; I believe their meaning of the number 13 was Immortality



While there is NO room for superstition, in Forex.

Though, maybe just keep a little space put aside, for .... magic ...

all the best pal
  • #590
  • Aug 26, 2021 11:27pm Aug 26, 2021 11:27pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaaa, cheers Bilal Triskaidekaphobia; the psychological avoidance of the number 13 Tarot; the 13th card is .... BUT, in Ancient Egypt; I believe their meaning of the number 13 was Immortality While there is NO room for superstition, in Forex. Though, maybe just keep a little space put aside, for .... magic ... all the best pal
Immortality

I am going to live for ever.
My son was born on the 13th
I was born on the 13th
My father was born on the 13th

and he is 92 and still an active sportsman

You guys are going to have to put up with my shit for centuries.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #591
  • Aug 26, 2021 11:34pm Aug 26, 2021 11:34pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Immortality I am going to live for ever. My son was born on the 13th I was born on the 13th My father was born on the 13th and he is 92 and still an active sportsman You guys are going to have to put up with my shit for centuries.
wow what a trio

May God bless you, and family with good health, prosperity and peace at heart.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #592
  • Aug 26, 2021 11:52pm Aug 26, 2021 11:52pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Pumi, In my humble view arrows marking down are manipulation, what you marked manipulation is actually consolidation to me and expansion is rightly the order flow. {image} apart from what is manipulation or expansion, we need to see, does our understanding/system allows us to identify and trade these moves or suggest us to stay sidelines.
My call on Pumi’s chart would be the manipulation is the bullish arrows orchestrated by big players to order stack large limit orders within a dense area to accumulate or distribute within the consolidation areas.

Therefore I would trade against the bullish arrows (against big players) and then run WiTH the big players when the order book becomes balanced and it flows bearish.

A system can just be the order book and tape not unlike the one Jesse Livermore he’d to use 100 years ago.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #593
  • Aug 27, 2021 12:08am Aug 27, 2021 12:08am
Quoting RickM
{quote} My call on Pumi’s chart would be the manipulation is the bullish arrows orchestrated by big players to order stack large limit orders within a dense area to accumulate or distribute within the consolidation areas. Therefore I would trade against the bullish arrows (against big players) and then run WiTH the big players when the order book becomes balanced and it flows bearish. A system can just be the order book and tape not unlike the one Jesse Livermore he’d to use 100 years ago.
Hahaha Rick if you know where Big players are moving, what else we need as per COT, and OI.

but why only move down with them move where they go , any way they are also following the price with bigger pockets.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #594
  • Aug 27, 2021 12:24pm Aug 27, 2021 12:24pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi BW The giant move is the order flow it was not in question. Market moves only up and down (can be a manipulation or trend) or sideways (although in side ways it is moving up and down, the only difference is the range.) The question is to have a system which should explain me what ever side market moves: - does my system helps me identify that - once identified does it allow me to capitalize it or decided to stay sideline. otherwise i am on a failed system. why the giant move up is the order flow i am sure you have the answer otherwise...
Hi Bilal, the one thing I like is your quest in this Forex journey. You don't dilute the path in front of you.

Take a look at Pumi's GU chart again to see the final segment of this week when the market close. Again back to your question, what do you think the answer is. In our journey it's important we are clear about the answer always to help us get to our intended destination.
Know what you trade
  • #595
  • Aug 27, 2021 12:40pm Aug 27, 2021 12:40pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Bilal, the one thing I like is your quest in this Forex journey. You don't dilute the path in front of you. Take a look at Pumi's GU chart again to see the final segment of this week when the market close. Again back to your question, what do you think the answer is. In our journey it's important we are clear about the answer always to help us get to our intended destination.
Hi BW

nothing to loose i am already working hard for my living, and no harm if am able to master this forex industry for a later time, and i enjoying this learning journey.

i would like you to put up the chart and explain because what i know, i already know, lets see what you wanna highlight, and please do not forget to mention your entries if you would take any as per your system. lets open up a a bit on the system if your okay.

regards
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #596
  • Aug 27, 2021 1:01pm Aug 27, 2021 1:01pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi BW nothing to loose i am already working hard for my living, and no harm if am able to master this forex industry for a later time, and i enjoying this learning journey. i would like you to put up the chart and explain because what i know, i already know, lets see what you wanna highlight, and please do not forget to mention your entries if you would take any as per your system. lets open up a a bit on the system if your okay. regards bilal
GU made a sustained 100pips up move from Asia market on Friday.

I was referring to to your question.
Quoting bilal1947
a system which should explain me what ever side market moves: - does my system helps me identify that ...
Know what you trade
  • #597
  • Aug 27, 2021 4:31pm Aug 27, 2021 4:31pm
The GBP/USD 1H chart below, and the blue area is the NY session activity today. Are you asking for a system that will explain, ahead of time, the actual PA in the blue area? Or a system that will explain the likely PA in the blue area? Or a system that explains the possibilities of PA within the blue area? Today's PA was a pure FA event. So, what are you asking for in a trading system?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.gif Size: 60 KB
  • #598
  • Aug 27, 2021 5:39pm Aug 27, 2021 5:39pm
Quoting GEfx
The GBP/USD 1H chart below, and the blue area is the NY session activity today. Are you asking for a system that will explain, ahead of time, the actual PA in the blue area? Or a system that will explain the likely PA in the blue area? Or a system that explains the possibilities of PA within the blue area? Today's PA was a pure FA event. So, what are you asking for in a trading system? {image}
News were used as an excuse...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-h1 (2021-08-28).png Size: 63 KB
  • #599
  • Edited 6:49pm Aug 27, 2021 5:53pm | Edited 6:49pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} News were used as an excuse... {image}
The news ahead of Powell's speech was from Mester and Bullard, who were very bullish on taper. This news was the excuse to buy dollars for about 30 minutes. The text of Powell's speech was released about 15 minutes ahead of his actual speech, and he was dovish about taper, which became the excuse to buy the GBP. So, yes, the FA-related activity was the excuse needed by traders who wanted to sell dollars/buy GBP this morning, and that is exactly what they did, and why they did it.
  • #600
  • Aug 27, 2021 5:56pm Aug 27, 2021 5:56pm
Quoting Pumi
{quote} News were used as an excuse... {image}
But if it moved strongly bearish, it also creates another pattern you could falsely explain it was predetermined.
There was a bottom target it could have taken out and all the TA guys would be posting that story.

Therefore up or down, there’s always a “I told you so” story.

It was a FA move, could of gone either way.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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