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  • #5,261
  • Feb 21, 2023 1:43am Feb 21, 2023 1:43am
Quoting newhope
{quote} *)
Hi fxpider, Can you explain this more ?
*) hi TimeTells, you said "got it in one " ...
but if I saw bionics post, nothing special there ... hmmmm ,all of this looks so strange to me magic ? no one can predict the future, even a fortune teller with his crystal bowl ... in my opinion, we can call it magic, if and only if it is really can work for 'all Pairs, and all TimeFrames' ... but, there is no such thing in this business ... may be just a day dreaming ??? lol ...

Hi newhope,

The markets I trade I see as highly organised mate.

It is not for me to say how you see the markets, each to their own.

You and I only have our own eyes and some basic maths to work with. Please continue with how you see the markets as that is best for you.

The "magic" reference LOL was that this market organisation happens quite frequently on most of the charts I post.

So I was actually just taking the p!ss (having a joke) out of the fact that some folk might say these are just random occurances
(thus they might see it as just a magic randomness).

In fact all my charts really are not trade charts, just posted & annotated to indicate & show I believe we operate inside a highly organised arena.
And as I always say, thank goodness for that, it is to our advantage imho, as I would not even bother to try & trade a random currency market.

Here's a couple of recent charts to illustrate, just from this month.

You do not have to see the market the same way as me, honestly, no probs at all

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post14304477
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...5#post14316175
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14310084


The reference to the Bionics video was that he showed clearly that the new ChatGBT hysteria which people are falling over themselves to get their hands on
(to do a job they really could actually do themselves) is what we used to call in the computer game (back in the 80's) as a Beta Test Model (ie v1.0x)

Companies & developers back then would create a product and FIRSTLY feed it out inside a group of registered Beta Testers who were skilled enough (like Bionics) to
push the new hardware or software to its limits as they were essentially chasing for bugs through their hard-pushing of the new products.

After a Beta Test had been through the wringer & the bugs ironed out, the companies would rectify the faults "before" releasing it to the general public.

These days (well the past 20 years imho) companies now seem to immediately release things to the public where the general public are then USED as the
old prior in-house Beta Testers by the companies (unsuspectingly, maybe) who just try to beat other developers in getting a working product to market.

Just bad luck I guess if those customers put in all their faith without using their own testing & due diligence first on a non-debugged-yet product.

Back in the 80's myself, I would always wait for about the 3rd or 4th iteration of a product (ver 3.1 etc ) that should have had the bugs exposed & rectified.



Not sure if we both watched the same Bionic Video, this is the one I was referring to (a 12mins watch)

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14325592


all the best sir
  • #5,262
  • Feb 21, 2023 4:39am Feb 21, 2023 4:39am
LONDON PA was tricky. Missed out on the GU move ( I was controlled by the FEAR). SETUP was there though, below the PDL, PSL, and RN. However, got some pips from UC and my old trusted NU.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,263
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:15am Feb 21, 2023 7:15am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hahaaa, you got it in one fxp And our advantage might be, if you have a look at Bionics recent thread post about his 'questions' to the Chattererbot lol is, that it makes mistakes (who would have thought lol - well ahhh many, as it was originally programmed to do its stuff by a .. human ... hahaa) you know those humans - they are not so infallible it seems
AI needs programming. From old skool GI = GO Garbage In = Garbage out. Likewise with Microsoft's great new AI that mostly just follow what you do to put adds up on searches. And I still have to get tricky with my search parameters to get even close to the results I want as opposed to what their AI thinks I want.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,264
  • Feb 21, 2023 11:06am Feb 21, 2023 11:06am
Just stick to lines
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,265
  • Feb 21, 2023 4:42pm Feb 21, 2023 4:42pm
I won't harp on too much about equilibrium (50%) in our markets which led to me to at least consider our markets are well organised and not just going anywhere.


GBPJPY and all the Pound Pairs would have gone through an opportinistic move yesterday on the GBP PMI report.
What great news for the UK.

PMI Report
Survey of about 650 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories

Those approx 650 purchasing managers provided opportune info for the market to move.
And move it did, GJ flashed up 130 pips, then with sellers trapped also I imagine after pausing, went up a further 88 pips by the days end peak.
Goodness me.

Well I snagged (a weakish in the aftermath lol) 33p, but I close 'em quick and get out when the market makes these moves, as I have also seen them flash up
AND DOWN in the same move so who knows at the time, get out with any TP is just my way lol.

After that I was not keen to either follow with the mad move or wait for safe reversal point, so I just shut down my trading paltform and was thankful for what I got.

Price could have gone down if the PMI was a poor report also. While they had already done a Pump & Dump prior to the news and I got in at a first point (what I thought was the Triangle Signal) which hadn't matured so closed early +7p and then waited for the real Triangle Back To Source move down at the Day Open, and just waited (with a 20 pip mental SL in my head, but a flash drop could have caught me for more).

Tricky business of course.
How do I feel about missing the fuller 170 pip move after I closed. No real probs lol. No FOMO. The market will be up to something again tomorrow (today).

.
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  • #5,266
  • Feb 21, 2023 4:46pm Feb 21, 2023 4:46pm
Sorry, the Equilibrium stuff from GJ yesterday (50%), which I look at this morning doing my daily pre-check before the trading begins for me in Asia.

When price moves so large, the next day starts in some confusion, as will price now go higher still (there is a massive 500+ candle prior that could be taken this week
OR price could go back to source, I have no idea at this point, so I can only watch. Price could also range now seeking new traders to add to those already caught.

The charts are Equilibrium on, firstly that 500+ pip candle itself chart, and then the 2nd chart on the Swing Hi (then Lo) from October last year to now.

Trade safe folks

.
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  • #5,267
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:05pm Feb 21, 2023 5:05pm
Quoting TimeTells
Sorry, the Equilibrium stuff from GJ yesterday (50%), which I look at this morning doing my daily pre-check before the trading begins for me in Asia. When price moves so large, the next day starts in some confusion, as will price now go higher still (there is a massive 500+ candle prior that could be taken this week OR price could go back to source, I have no idea at this point, so I can only watch. Price could also range now seeking new traders to add to those already caught. The charts are Equilibrium on, firstly that 500+ pip candle itself chart,...
I noticed the wicks are excluded from the FIB (1st pic), any particular reason?
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,268
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:14pm Feb 21, 2023 5:14pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote}
I noticed the wicks are excluded from the FIB (1st pic), any particular reason?

Just cause was on the Daily Chart and looking at one candle only (I include wicks on lower TFs and major swing hi's and lo's)

And I love the wicks lol (pin Bars etc) and would start assessing on the 5 min charts (but with direction, not really as hard reversals),
and then on the 15m charts (as possible reversals ?, OR continuations).

To me the wick is not just a rejection of direction, but can ALSO be a soft pullback (profit taking and then resetting in the same direction).

So there is no FIRM way I look at the Wicks. (maybe 50% up or down ).

To me it is always what a market DOES (in everything) after an event/incident, that prompts me to either trade OR STAY OUT.

The RBs, and RTs are more pronounced & longer term signals than Wicks imo.

all the best
  • #5,269
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:31pm Feb 21, 2023 5:31pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote}
I noticed the wicks are excluded from the FIB (1st pic), any particular reason?

Here's another look at the first chart on a 4hr view which will incl the (daily) wicks on the Master Candle.



If the Yen news is flat in 20 mins it might be a very quiet Asia for me this morning, we shall see.

The City Of London gang and the London Open will be the most interesting today for the Pound Pairs.

.
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  • #5,270
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:39pm Feb 21, 2023 5:39pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote} I noticed the wicks are excluded from the FIB (1st pic), any particular reason?

lol FXP you get me to thinking again, thank you sir

For the exercise why not here's the 2nd chart from above, this time 'without' the wicks on the swing hi, swing lo daily candle

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,271
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:52pm Feb 21, 2023 5:52pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Here's another look at the first chart on a 4hr view which will incl the (daily) wicks on the Master Candle. If the Yen news is flat in 20 mins it might be a very quiet Asia for me this morning, we shall see. The City Of London gang and the London Open will be the most interesting today for the Pound Pairs. . {image}
Thank you.

In this ASIA session, I am struggling to read the CHART. My mind is cluttered with confusion and not able to form any thesis. is it me? or WEDNESDAY? I would better stay away, and should not force myself to see the things that possibly, are not there at present.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,272
  • Feb 21, 2023 5:59pm Feb 21, 2023 5:59pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} lol FXP you get me to thinking again, thank you sir For the exercise why not here's the 2nd chart from above, this time 'without' the wicks on the swing hi, swing lo daily candle . {image}
The pip difference is only (163.895 - 163.775) = 12 pips. Not significant, anyway, I would be looking at the ZONE/LEVEL instead of the specific price point.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,273
  • Feb 21, 2023 6:30pm Feb 21, 2023 6:30pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote}
Thank you. In this ASIA session, I am struggling to read the CHART.
My mind is cluttered with confusion and not able to form any thesis. is it me? or WEDNESDAY?
I would better stay away, and should not force myself to see the things that possibly, are not there at present.

Hi fxp,
this is just one of the actual understandings of what 'they' are doing with the market. ie NOT seeing what they are doing At Present.

During these times I leave the market alone. As IT must do something eventually to attract traders. Do not go in and be THE liquidity for them to do what they like.

They are often just aggregating (in my mind, lol) BOTH buyers & sellers to determine a bias, so will float the market up & down within a range.

This can be tradeable from the top to the bottom and back up again IF a set range is established (2-3 hours).
But involves a lot of attention and is NO guarantee that range will hold. They can also move price 15-20pips north or south & re-start a range after trapping traders.

George used to call it waiting for the expansions. (30-50 pips)
If we have great patience and wait for THEM to expand price, and after that watch for structure or structure breaks, or look for the Bermuda's to complete (or start) and the RBs & RTs etc etc .....

THEN

We are back in our familar territory imho. Don't trade in unfamiliar territory is all I can suggest.
  • #5,274
  • Feb 21, 2023 6:38pm Feb 21, 2023 6:38pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Don't trade in unfamiliar territory is all I can suggest.
Noted gracefully. Thank you
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,275
  • Feb 21, 2023 6:53pm Feb 21, 2023 6:53pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote}
The pip difference is only (163.895 - 163.775) = 12 pips. Not significant, anyway,
I would be looking at the ZONE/LEVEL instead of the specific price point.

Gold !
  • #5,276
  • Feb 21, 2023 6:55pm Feb 21, 2023 6:55pm
Interesting GJ chart. The price might be heading to rebalance.

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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,277
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:03pm Feb 21, 2023 7:03pm
Quoting fxpider
Interesting GJ chart. The price might be heading to rebalance. {image}

Up OR down is my best guess lol

OR up & then down, and/or down & then up.

It's all some mental cruelty to me


But THEY WILL do something and in the middle of it we can hopefully extract some some pips.

Any day now the BoJ will make some fiscal policy statement I imagine.

Last time when the new guys name came up GJ flashed down 160 pips and then within the session back UP 160 pips to source lol.
(a bit like the good old Draghi statement days for the euro)

This pair is a trick, and we know that, trade safe.


BoJ news 3 days ago
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-...mics/101994046
  • #5,278
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:07pm Feb 21, 2023 7:07pm
Quoting fxpider
Interesting GJ chart. The price might be heading to rebalance. {image}
The same potential area of interest for EJ and UJ. Considering their ADR, quite possible to achieve in a day. FOMC Meeting Minutes ??

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,279
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:22pm Feb 21, 2023 7:22pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} This pair is a trick, and we know that, trade safe.
Especially if there is major news on JPY. and things get more tricky when the news calendar only provides a TENTATIVE time.
Success = Practice + Patience + Persistence
  • #5,280
  • Feb 21, 2023 7:32pm Feb 21, 2023 7:32pm
Quoting fxpider
{quote}
Especially if there is major news on JPY. and things get more tricky when the news calendar only provides a TENTATIVE time.

Exactly.

And while I never "recommend" anything or anyone as gospel, as there are forces far greater out there in the world of economics & fiscal behaviour, but

this site link on those days of a "tentative" announcement can often place the timing to within an hour (which is helpful - to STAY out of the market lol )

https://www.forexlive.com/CentralBanks/
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