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  • #4,001
  • Edited 11:33am Oct 25, 2022 9:36am | Edited 11:33am
Somebody likes Rishi Sunak the new UK prime Minister, but a long way from the May 2021 Highs of 1.42356

As an aside The US president , Joe Biden, couldn't pronounce the UK PM's christian or surname correctly. YouTube is full of Joe's gaffes.
Age difference is also very wide between them - Sunak is 42 years old.
Will Rishi beat Liz's length of tenure in the post
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,002
  • Oct 25, 2022 5:48pm Oct 25, 2022 5:48pm
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} Hi Shabs， Is 1.13699 open/close/high/low price?
No it's not any of those .

It's a market play by UK Session traders opening, usually happens in the first half hour of the UK Open, the EU session open is the set-up

It's a beautiful example of How Asia, Eu & UK Traders can work together and create fake moves. Just watch for it, when Prices are in a tight range.

It isn't called Accumulation for Nothing.

The High volume at that time, entering as EU Opens, UK adds, Asia closing. Triple whammy.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,003
  • Oct 25, 2022 6:08pm Oct 25, 2022 6:08pm
Quoting turnip15
@TimeTells Is this what TimeTells calls "Inflection Points" ( Zeppelins) ? {image}

Hi turnip,

Yes I do see them as ............ the

Zeppelins, Inflection Points, Bollinger Band Squeezes, Holding Up Price (SBurke), Time Compression (Jankovsky)

Just another observational to me happening within the boundaries of Market Mechanics & Market Behaviour.

I do NOT sit & wait for these things to encourage me into a trade entry, in fact some of them happen AFTER I have already entered a trade
(very cunning of you MrMarketMaker lol but I sometimes see your tricks hahaaa - but NOT every time )

All those word-narratives above will tell a trader the same story about the same price activty imo
(the only variances of observational assistance being related to different timeframes)

AND Zepps (swicthed lol) are fractal,
what we see as Inflection on a 1min chart has a far lesser impact on OVERALL market/price behaviour than say what we see as Inflection would
on a 1hr/4hr chart or 1DY chart where the moves after those breakouts can be immense. (100's of pips - Kev's & Andy's territories )

I am a short-term trader, scalping between 7 -20 pips a few times if fortunate during the Asia session then again the hour before Franky/London but I miss ALL of the larger price move action during New York as I am sleep.

(and I scalp lol to 100 pips at infrequent & sporadic times - thank you current market volatility and BoJ hahaa but these big'uns I class as pure luck me only being in the right place at the right time ---- while THEN I think what might be IF I was in the WRONG place at the wrong time - another story lol).


Here is the graphic BELOW that I saw on a NON-forex related site that referred to this Inflection Point.

When I first saw the graphic it meant nothing to me really.
THEN later I remembered an (awful to read) book called The Delta (hahaa) Phenomenon.
And after speed reading that book (which Welles Wilder by the way, yep the inventor of the RSI indi, PAID Jim Sloman, anecdotally, some $30,000 USD for the info back in the early '80s when that kind of money was huge compared to today (well pre-GFC 2008). (Then Welles, anecdotally, paid Jim $1million for the next info Jim devised from market behaviour, The Ocean Phenomenon ?, I think).

Both of these I thought, IF I remembered correctly (who knows) looked vaguely familiar to the CONCEPT within the original Inflection Point which is a geometrical or calculus usage function, I believe.

The graphic and how I use it is not a pin-point POINT lol at all. The point of inflection as I see it in Forex is where Price Is Held Up (SBurke) for an undetermined period of time before it then (and it CAN) move away from The Point in EITHER direction. The graphic shows this dual potential.

I read some newish poster a week or so back say that he saw somewhere (maybe it was my Inflection, I dont know OR care lol) that FF Posters are inventing new words for their observations . Nothing new under the Sun, sir, imho.

okay, the graphic - this WILL NOT put you into winning trade hahaaa .
but you, as yourself, THE TRADER, could just think about it and WHY price might sit at a point (zone or area) for a period of time before exiting & moving on.
anything i write is NOT specific trading advice folks - just - IT IS TO GET A TRADER TO THINK

.
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  • #4,004
  • Oct 26, 2022 2:25am Oct 26, 2022 2:25am
Hi All, Any of you traded the strong GBP/JPY up move? GBP is doing well early London Session.
  • #4,005
  • Oct 26, 2022 3:56am Oct 26, 2022 3:56am
The future of trading?

Inserted Video
  • #4,006
  • Oct 26, 2022 5:56am Oct 26, 2022 5:56am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Cheers D-M, grab a cup of tea or beverage of choice lol, you asked good questions and I didn't want to gloss over anything (so you know that means a long'un) others might best just look for a more interesting movie, or something So, what are we being presented with, pricewise, in the form of Day Opens on our charts. And by that I mean 00:00 on the chart and how reliable are they, imo. I have two live trading accounts. One live a/c I use purely for my Horizontal Line etc templates chart as I have found over the past three...
Ok TT..thanks for such a detailed reply. One thing for sure in trading is certain...my ageing brain is not as sharp as it used to be. I'm sure a lot of us here remember the task of defragmenting the data contents of an HDD to get it back to a more responsive state. And now we have SSDs in all their wonderful solid state glory. No more spinning platters with a file spread over 1000 tiny chunks that takes an age to mechanically retrieve and piece back together.. I wish my brain was an SSD . Anyway, enough of the computer tech analogies.

I agree with a lot of what you say... BUT.. I feel I am also not picking up on a lot of what you are saying. Maybe it's just me. Maybe everyone understands it just fine. If that's the case then please tell me to drop it and change the subject...I won't be offended.

Ok, the post you made about the GJ oscillating around the Weekly open -

"Today GJ, if a straight horizontal line was placed along the weekly open
Then the 1m candle structure from above to below early in Asia
Is almost a replica from the 1m candle view from below to then above at the Franky open.
No accident, for sure."

Now, I see that on the subsequent chart you posted. We can go back to Crucial Point and talk about his hemispheres and that's a beautiful example of something trading above some line, and then repeating the behaviour below that line. But if the WEEKLY open on my chart is not 168.25ish (as you have chosen it to be) then that pattern of oscillation above and below that line is not the same. I'm VERY interested why you have 168.25 as the weekly open as I just don't see that being quoted by anyone else.

I understand what you are saying about Asia session setting the first highs/lows of the day..but I don't see how this can have any effect on the day or week open.

"If any are using a Day Open Line (Price) to formulate any maths activity then I would be very wary I guess."

I've come to the conclusion that the day open is not precise enough to base any calculations off, but you wouldn't say the same for the previous day's close surely? I think daily, weekly, monthly, yearly closes are vital for calculations. We hear some analyst say "S&P is 18% down for the year". From where? It's from the closing price of the last trading day of 2021, an official price that everyone can adjust subsequent performance against. We don't hear anyone say "wait a minute..we better check the first day open in January wasn't a gap up/down and adjust prices. And BTW, I'm not saying that any previous-period-close lines are some kind of mythical barriers that have magical powers, but at the end of the day, we need some kind of figure as a reference point.

"But it doesn’t matter to me and I would NEVER use the official Day Close (certainly NOT for any maths value) because to ME the real Day Close could only be when New York closes. Which is actually ONE HOUR earlier than the official day close price 23:59 /day open price at 00:00."

"Those Monday gaps we get are sometimes because the Forex markets in some places trade for a few hours on the SUNDAY, so there has already been trade action somewhere and price can move on the Sunday & then shows up on our standard FIVE DAY NEW YORK CLOSE CHARTS as a Monday Gap."

I did a post a wee while back about the forex week and the Sunday Candle. Looking at the charts u post, your chart is using the same timestamp as mine. That is...midnight on your chart is 5PM NYC time. NYSE closes at 4pm but as far as I was aware forex closes at 5pm (midnight on chart). So, are you saying I should take 11pm as the actual close price for forex?

Regards
DM
  • #4,007
  • Oct 26, 2022 6:09am Oct 26, 2022 6:09am
Quoting moodybot
The future of trading? https://youtu.be/F81_wL5gDHM
Agree with her 100%

"It's all about control"

I've stated my views on here a while back as well. People just seem to be sleepwalking into this future Orwellian world of digital currency convenience. There will be a heavy price to pay for an individual's freedom once we go down this inevitable path. "Hey mate, do u mind popping on to Easyjet and grabbing me a flight down to Heathrow...the government are onto me as my carbon footprint is already maxed out for the year and they are blocking my payment".

CASH IS KING !!
  • #4,008
  • Oct 26, 2022 6:18am Oct 26, 2022 6:18am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Agree with her 100% "It's all about control" I've stated my views on here a while back as well. People just seem to be sleepwalking into this future Orwellian world of digital currency convenience. There will be a heavy price to pay for an individual's freedom once we go down this inevitable path. "Hey mate, do u mind popping on to Easyjet and grabbing me a flight down to Heathrow...the government are onto me as my carbon footprint is already maxed out for the year and they are blocking my payment". CASH IS KING !!
Agreed.
Theres going to be an almighty wake up call coming, and it’s already too late to stop it.
Most are in denial, head in the sand.
  • #4,009
  • Oct 26, 2022 6:43am Oct 26, 2022 6:43am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
But if the WEEKLY open on my chart is not 168.25ish (as you have chosen it to be) then that pattern of oscillation above and below that line is not the same. I'm VERY interested why you have 168.25 as the weekly open as I just don't see that being quoted by anyone else.

Hi D-M,

Do you mind if I chip away at this lol, I am currently in the middle of something here (but not trading lol). Andy tipped me off you had a question/s.


I should say with Open prices I do not actually choose anything personally.
I use an indi for the Week Open that takes the opening price of each new Monday candle directly from my broker chart.
That then remains the Weekly Open price until the following Monday.

While each separate day of the week (Tue, Wed etc) will usually have a different open line. So this chart below I used a day Open indi for a reference check.
And it was the exact same price on my broker.

Hope this helps D-M, else we are just confirming again that different brokers can have different opening prices.


I DON'T really look at hemispheres on my charts in my mind at all, and NOT in the way that either CP or BW might I reckon,
as their's seem to have an Intent purpose, where mine are just of visual interest.
That chart I posted was, again, to indicate & show traders my belief that are markets are hightly organised.

I DO look at price reactions though both before, during, and after - or moving to, from, or thru any lines.
Together with confluences then that may form a trade signal.

And I have noticed that each new day MAY have also have a different lines which are In-Play (if you know what I mean) during the different sessions.

For example Asia it might be the day or week open, London might be the Day Pivot PP etc etc. Always similar behaviours, but not exact replica copies.
Then my job is to see what might be "In-Play" each session/day as a CLUE only. But NEVER as a firm trade signal, ever.
My charts are to allow a trader to think "why" does that happen, certainly NOTHING I post on a chart is a Signal Setup
(as the setups, imho, change & they change by design lol).

Here's another chart with just the Day Opens this time,
I see it was exactly the same
168.244
That was also the Week Open (as it was the Monday) from the first chart you mentioned.

If it is just broker variance at your end and my end I cannot help that we are different.
And, as I mentioned, I never use any open price as a number for any maths calculation, at all.

I will see if I can squeeze in another reply tonight, its half hour to New York Open here
(j/k - a vertical line, 15:00 chart time, I bet ours agree here )

all the best D-M
(and yep I remember the good 'ol Defrag days very well, as I was a computer techo in the mid-80's lol - plenty of stories there hahaaa)

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,010
  • Oct 26, 2022 7:37am Oct 26, 2022 7:37am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
I understand what you are saying about Asia session setting the first highs/lows of the day..but I don't see how this can have any effect on the day or week open.
We hear some analyst say "S&P is 18% down for the year". From where? It's from the closing price of the last trading day of 2021
I did a post a wee while back about the forex week and the Sunday Candle. Looking at the charts u post, your chart is using the same timestamp as mine. That is...midnight on your chart is 5PM NYC time. NYSE closes at 4pm but as far as I was aware...

Hi D-M, let me have a crack at a few more.

Closing Time,
(Last Call, for those who remember those days)


If we can imagine Forex as a place of work where New York Closes at 4pm for example, and then the Traders all go home (or to the Local).
But then the office itself still remains open for an extra hour while the cleaners or such come in and tidy up the place.

That extra hour imho maybe does not generate enough REAL MM fiscal activity to be as relevant to such a thing as what price did at the final close.

For example, the Fixing Time Price for the Libor if I remember is actually right on the London Close Time currently 18:00 chart time
but that may change during any daylight savings periods I don't know (I am always sleeping then lol).

So we have Price at the Fixing Time, the New York Close and then finally the Day Close which all present A Price for each forex pair.

(The S&P I can't say, but stock trading in the Pits I bet trading went right up to the last bell and the final flurry to settle a 'close' price then might be very relevant)
But Forex, I cannot be so sure in my mind.

And remembering that PRICE is really only relevant to ME as an Actual TRADING Price that I could get set with at my Broker for a trade NOW.

That is ALL the function a Price has to me. A next trade, now.

However, what you might be discussing, plus along with other Maths Traders, is you might use price for something that ISN'T for Trading

But FOR some maths calculation that hopefully will alert the gang to what COULD/SHOULD happen with or AT a price.

This is out of my realm as just a set Trader, and seems more like a creation for Prediction and for those discussions you will likely get more relevant answers
in a Maths/EA/Indicator Forum maybe.

I sure never knock the Maths folk at all, many have great successes I see (and also look at the Institutional Maths Predictions for future positional trading),

But to me PRICE is ONLY & JUST ----- will I BUY now or will I SELL now, nothing more AT ALL

(Which is why I say I dont use price for any calculations, extremes of position, how much to trade lot-wise, probabilities, bell curves etc while others will.
I am proficient in Maths and could do such things, but for me, and Trading, well just give me a chart & a few timeframes and I LOOK for what THEY are doing NOW)

So No I am not saying D-M you should choose 11pm as an actual CLOSE time for Forex,
I guess I am saying you should INVESTIGATE price at any point you wish for a CLOSE point.
And then examine & test to see if that close time YOU choose holds up for the purpose you wish to use it for.

For me Price is, either at value OR positioned (important, to me) for a TRADE now OR no trade at all lol - no more.


And I will come back to your 1st question above, I don't really understand it just yet
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
I understand what you are saying about Asia session setting the first highs/lows of the day..but I don't see how this can have any effect on the day or week open.

all the best pal
  • #4,011
  • Oct 26, 2022 8:05am Oct 26, 2022 8:05am
Quoting moodybot
The future of trading? https://youtu.be/F81_wL5gDHM
You'll own nothing and be happy.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #4,012
  • Oct 26, 2022 1:40pm Oct 26, 2022 1:40pm
Hello peeps.
With the ten year old grandson all day. Shows his Grandad around the computer

Here's what I missed on the sp500 today
Lines are marked up prior to US Pre open
Nice day out though
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US500_2022-10-26_19-37-29_f673a.png Size: 150 KB
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,013
  • Oct 26, 2022 2:22pm Oct 26, 2022 2:22pm
Quoting moodybot
The future of trading? https://youtu.be/F81_wL5gDHM
The end of the world as we know it....Total control and social score for usage and CO2 limits for each one of us(Suddenly your limit is hit and can`t put gas in your car)....When they want to give you a digital ID to be able to use your money, we must draw a line in the sand....Just my humble oppinion


EDIT:LOL, i didnt see the video before posting, i see some of my points come there
Insanityoing same ting over expecting different results..Einstein
  • #4,014
  • Oct 26, 2022 7:58pm Oct 26, 2022 7:58pm
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote}
I understand what you are saying about Asia session setting the first highs/lows of the day..
but I don't see how this can have any effect on the day or week open.

Quoting TimeTells
{quote}
And I will come back to your 1st question above, I don't really understand it just yet {quote} all the best pal

Hi D-M,

I would agree with you that the first highs/lows of the asia session do not have any effect on the day or week open.
In fact I would say cannot. But that's just me.

However, I am not sure I ever stated they would, as that would be contrary to any of my thinking in regards to the viewing of
horizontal lines etc ---- either hi's/lo's or day/week open lines/price.

All of my thoughts in trading, for some time now (and probably why I don't employ maths on charts, when I definately could should I choose)
is that I am always hopeful and

waiting ...

(and patience is still my weakness, and likely why I will sometimes employ an early scout trade these days,
which helps me sometimes to back up my own premise of the current market mechanics & behaviours playing out)

... to see ...

how other traders, PLUS the market response to them, affects the volatility/momentum of subsequent price activity or whether prices then congregates
inside a variable range or an even smaller movement of price I witness then as Inflection.

ONLY after I can gain some clarity, of how I interpret what the market is doing now, will I trade as a buy or a sell or (most of the time) just sit on my hands.

I honestly don't think any thread on FF is going to give us or any new trader the 100% certainty of answer as to when or where or how we should trade.

We are going to, as hard as this may seem, all have to make up our own minds and come to our own conclusions as to how we might best do that.

All traders reading any thread of FF, imho, should only take what they read as ...
suggestions, ideas, or advice or maybe a word from the experience of others BUT not as a cold, hard factual (lol ) way to employ their OWN trading.


I could also run up another A4 page on this topic lol, in relation to how five different traders might see five different things on the same chart & timeframe.
But not now (whew I hear you say )
  • #4,015
  • Edited 9:09pm Oct 26, 2022 8:58pm | Edited 9:09pm
And finally for the morning (as GJ is bound up tight and I’m only watching from afar).


This is my Template #4, and from that number you will understand (by using maths) that I employ at least three other templates.
Which works fine for me as I essentially watch only one pair (my ‘edge’, I don’t know).


I am around 20% maths (the indis plus) BUT then 80% observational when I trade.


When I look at the templates, which are also on different timeframes,
I DO NOT have in my mind AT ALL that a certain something of PA will happen BY any of these Lines.
(ie Day Ope, Week Ope, Pivs, SR1, BRN etc)

The Lines cannot do one damn thing by themselves on a chart, other than IMHO ...

Attract other traders who MAY then do something themselves.
And then, only then, I might do some trading myself. Or do nothing and keep sitting on my hands.


I understand this is quite different to how dedicated maths traders (who do their job well) or Indicator traders do theirs, or really how any other trader might trade.
It is merely how I trade, and I enjoy it.

So while I post my Lines on my charts, I have mentioned over & over that any Lines are LESS important than what OTHER traders might do at & around the lines,

and which (again, and only imho) THEN entices THE ENTIRE MARKET to do their thing.

So that’s when I am most likely to trade. (And sometimes inside the washing machine also )

NO BRNs, Pivs, Hi/Los, FVGs, Bell Curves OR Inflections etc etc would determine a trade,

It is only after what others, and THEN how the market responds
That will either pull me into a trade or keep me out.

AM I 100% successful in my trades when I do it this way.

Get real !!!
But it’s what I enjoy lol.


Here’s a couple of graphics I have lying around, one the time immortalised (and for good reason imo) Wyckoff, and the other revisiting Shabs’ recent graphic on time honoured STRUCTURE TRADING

This is essentially visual, discretionary, trader observational trading which is different, but not necessarily better than any other way of trading of course,
as there is NO one way is best in trading.

(and should any trader tell you that there is but one way to trade or that their way is best, my humble advice is to Run For The Hills, as, even if,
you ultimately lean towards their way of trading in the end, they will have stifled you from exploring full possibilities to prove to yourself what works best for YOU)

3 pics, one chart (what will other traders do when price approaches some of the lines)
2 graphics
Discretionary Trading, Visuals and Market Mechanics Comprehension Trading


.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,016
  • Oct 27, 2022 4:58am Oct 27, 2022 4:58am
Quoting TimeTells
Here’s a couple of graphics I have lying around, one the time immortalised (and for good reason imo) Wyckoff, and the other revisiting Shabs’ recent graphic on time honoured STRUCTURE TRADING This is essentially visual, discretionary, trader observational trading which is different, but not necessarily better than any other way of trading of course, as there is NO one way is best in trading. (and should any trader tell you that there is but one way to trade or that their way is best, my humble advice is to Run For The Hills, as, even if, you ultimately...

Hi TT,

I have looked at your GJ chart you posted, Daily Open looks different, is that at 0:00 hrs ?

My chart although I dont trade Asia Open, as I am sleeping then.

My chart looks like this and the trade entries are clear:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #4,017
  • Oct 27, 2022 5:47am Oct 27, 2022 5:47am
Dax round up - UK - 8am to 10am UK time

Sat on my hands all morning - two hours - as price seemed to be in a range.
Done this a couple of times now - sitting doing nowt - is the market testing me

No trades this morning.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,018
  • Oct 27, 2022 5:51am Oct 27, 2022 5:51am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote}
Hi TT, I have looked at your GJ chart you posted, Daily Open looks different, is that at 0:00 hrs ? My chart although I dont trade Asia Open, as I am sleeping then. My chart looks like this and the trade entries are clear: {image}

Hi Shabs,
Yes my chart starts at 00:00, which is 7am in Oz which is I believe 9PM in London if that helps.

Good chart, yours, yes entries are very clear.
I trade the two sessions, ASia of course timezone, and then from 1 hr before Franky I look int to 1 hour AFTER london. If in profit for the day, then I then stop.

From my chart above if you invert YOUR Structure Chart you can see it was a classic sell setup after the retest, around the 12th x 15m candle of the day (while I trade it all from a 1min chart). I was in & out quick, 2 trades closed the 1st early and booked some profit early, and let 2nd run.

An hour after London open they kept me waiting for a long time at the bottom after my trade entry (I call it Inflection - AND I know what they are doing).
Where you were getting out I was logging on and getting in lol, so I just sat on the buy trade. Eventually it paid out.

Structure Trading
I remember about 4 years ago trader fxprimate (funny guy posting cartoon graphics) well he and I were at loggerheads with each other over a non-trading issue,
BUT as real Traders do we managed to get together on an external white-board-chat-room he had and he SHOWED me the first I had seen of Structure Trading.
And that style chart view holds up well today (the good old horizontal line lol).
  • #4,019
  • Oct 27, 2022 6:04am Oct 27, 2022 6:04am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi Shabs, Yes my chart starts at 00:00, which is 7am in Oz which is I believe 9PM in London if that helps. Good chart, yours, yes entries are very clear. I trade the two sessions, ASia of course timezone, and then from 1 hr before Franky I look int to 1 hour AFTER london. If in profit for the day, then I then stop. From my chart above if you invert YOUR Structure Chart you can see it was a classic sell setup after the retest, around the 12th x 15m candle of the day (while I trade it all from a 1min chart). I was in & out quick, 2 trades...
All hail the horizontal line
Simple but effective. Only took me half a lifetime to find that out.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,020
  • Oct 27, 2022 6:11am Oct 27, 2022 6:11am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote}Structure Trading I remember about 4 years ago trader fxprimate (funny guy posting cartoon graphics) well he and I were at loggerheads with each other over a non-trading issue, BUT as real Traders do we managed to get together on an external white-board-chat-room he had and he SHOWED me the first I had seen of Structure Trading. And that style chart view holds up well today (the good old horizontal line lol).
Hi TT,

I start by looking at the 30m charts to give me a broad view, yesterday's action and mkt todays opens and look at market flow.
Once I have marked up levels, drop to 15m & look for set-ups. There are a number of plays that occur daily, you just have to be "in the game"
to work out, what is happening, where the reaction points are, if it doesn't happen try not to force something and stay out.

The best tool on MT4 by far, the old Horizontal line.

Yes I remember FxPrimate, I didn't have any problem with him, seems to have gone really quiet these days. I hope he's OK.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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