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The Fed hiked rates above 5%, and yet the US economy doesn't break. Back in 2022 already, the yield curve inverted and it has stayed inverted ever since. The lags looked relatively short, and the US economy was going through a soft patch in 2023 when it became consensus that a recession was gonna happen. Something even broke in markets (regional banks), and ...
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post: Fed’s Mester: It Will Take Longer to Gain Confidence Inflation’s Moving Toward 2% Fed’s Mester: Current Restrictive Policy Will Help Lower Inflation Fed’s Mester: Welcomes CPI Data Sign of Cooling Inflation Fed’s Mester: Expects Gradual Progress on Lowering Inflation post: FED’S MESTER: RISKS TO THE INFLATION SIDE OF FED MANDATE HAVE INCREASED. post: <=USD>:*FED'S MESTER: PRUDENT TO HOLD RATES 'FOR LONGER' TO ASSESS DATA *MESTER: INFLATION PROGRESS WILL DEPEND MORE ON EASING DEMAND *MESTER: DATA SUGGEST RISKS TO FED'S INFLATION GOAL HAVE RISEN *MESTER: READINGS ON SHORT-TERM INF. EXPECTATIONS HAVE RISEN