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Bitcoin technical analysis

Who thinks we are we going to break $450 today?
450$ all time hiiiiiigh
coinsetter.com
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Follow me on twitter @whimtradr
hi all,

well never a dull moment with BTC! and price reaching for the moon - it's going to come down hard when the profit-taking starts, but when? $500, $499? $750? Probably crash MtGox servers again like last time!

I'm watching BTCUSD head for $460... what i notice is the market is quite thin - back when BTCUSD was near $100 there would be orders for 20,000 coins and more in a $15 range above and below current price, but now it's only around 2000 worth... Up on low volume? sign of imminent reversal? We'll just have to wait and see!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_458.00000-goxtool-bid:458.00000ask:459.00000_16Nov13_17:21.png Size: 185 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
hi all, well never a dull moment with BTC! and price reaching for the moon - it's going to come down hard when the profit-taking starts, but when? $500, $499? $750? Probably crash MtGox servers again like last time! I'm watching BTCUSD head for $460... what i notice is the market is quite thin - back when BTCUSD was near $100 there would be orders for 20,000 coins and more in a $15 range above and below current price, but now it's only around 2000 worth... Up on low volume? sign of imminent reversal? We'll just have to wait and see! {image}
yeah I agree. I don't think it will be easy to predict the top, just like you said. But I already sold mine because I know I will be able to buy them way lower.
Last true profit-taking was at 230$, people end up absorving them at 200$
400$ profit-taking was absorved at avrg of 320$
each swing from top to bottom was 23% on first and 27% on second so relativily they were the same.

Still 3 things I note here.
1) While people were happing to absorve 230$ sell-off at avrg price of 200$ when it come to 400$ it average at 320$
Thefore it sugests the true demand is less at these prices.

2) Swings get larger selling the same ammount of coins, there is a real possibility of one of these swings will be big enough to cause panic selling.

3) Other is cashing out (ie profit taking) is a regular thing and it will happen

With 1) 2) and 3) I can conclude that demand is less, instability gets only larger, and some day it will be violent enought to cause panic selling and therefor we will have a "small" crash. I think it can touch 200$ and then some more with panic selling to 180$


Other things to note:
I also belive this market is just one scare headline away from a big sell off. I can't foresee or predict what that headline will be but I speculate on this:
Tomorrow/Monday there will be a hearing in US about bitcoin. I think if the result out of that meeting is a push for more regulation on bitcoin even if not exactly what. That will provide the headline that will make this sell-off.
http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/hearings...ual-currencies
Quoting Lottaa
{quote} yeah I agree. I don't think it will be easy to predict the top, just like you said. But I already sold mine because I know I will be able to buy them way lower. Last true profit-taking was at 230$, people end up absorving them at 200$ 400$ profit-taking was absorved at avrg of 320$ each swing from top to bottom was 23% on first and 27% on second so relativily they were the same. Still 3 things I note here. 1) While people were happing to absorve 230$ sell-off at avrg price of 200$ when it come to 400$ it average at 320$ Thefore it...
Impossible to "know" such a thing...very dangerous mentality for a trader.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
Bitcoins = 21st century tulips...
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
Quoting zusch
{quote} Impossible to "know" such a thing...very dangerous mentality for a trader.
I am pretty sure it will be lower than 400$
Quoting Bruce Flea
Bitcoins = 21st century tulips...
Besides comparing bitconi with tulips is like comparing apples to colors.. there were also people who said internet was not going to be a big thing.

When people realize the potential then its already at the potential and you just missed it. People will keep missing the point of bitcoin until its too late.
Quoting Lottaa
Besides comparing bitconi with tulips is like comparing apples to colors.. there were also people who said internet was not going to be a big thing. When people realize the potential then its already at the potential and you just missed it. People will keep missing the point of bitcoin until its too late.
e

Not really.

The internet is easy to access, and it's available to almost everyone. Bitcoins despite their value are inaccessible BECAUSE of their value. Not to mention, they are on every central banks hit list.

They will likely keep climbing. Their scarcity will be a continued factor in the value increase. But when they governments find a way to get their fingers in the pie and tax and regulate them, they will crash just like tulips. The last bitcoin jump happened with the mainstream news report about the guy that had a hidden stash he got for 20 cents a pop that he found out was worth$800k. That's not a bubble I want any part of.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
Quoting Bruce Flea
{quote}e Not really. The internet is easy to access, and it's available to almost everyone. .
Now internet is easy to acess and avaible to almost everyone. Before it wasn't. Still there were people not seeing it to be a big thing.
Quote
Bitcoins despite their value are inaccessible BECAUSE of their value.
You can buy 0.00000001 BTC , and more divisibility is possible if its eventually needed.

Quote
Not to mention, they are on every central banks hit list. They will likely keep climbing. Their scarcity will be a continued factor in the value increase. But when they governments find a way to get their fingers in the pie and tax and regulate them, they will crash just like tulips.

Goverment taxing bitcoins is like saying goverment will be able to tax the internet somehow. And no so far its not on the central banks hit list, they don't even care about it. But when they do lets see what they will do. They can't just create bitcoins out of nothing and crash it. Or just outlaw bitcoin.
In the end its on the power of the people , if people want to use it central banks don't have any power over it.

Quote
The last bitcoin jump happened with the mainstream news report about the guy that had a hidden stash he got for 20 cents a pop that he found out was worth$800k. That's not a bubble I want any part of
That story didn't cause any jump. Don't blame a dumb article like that for a price rise. You must see the boarder picture of what is happening here, if with so much evidence you don't get what is happening and what bitcoin is all about then you will only see it after its at its full potential, and then you will be like "ooh now I get it.. yeah it works, I didn't know it would become like this "

And yes its like comparing oranges to apples to horses.
Quoting Lottaa
{quote} yeah I agree. I don't think it will be easy to predict the top, just like you said. But I already sold mine because I know I will be able to buy them way lower. Last true profit-taking was at 230$, people end up absorving them at 200$ 400$ profit-taking was absorved at avrg of 320$ each swing from top to bottom was 23% on first and 27% on second so relativily they were the same. Still 3 things I note here. 1) While people were happing to absorve 230$ sell-off at avrg price of 200$ when it come to 400$ it average at 320$ Thefore it sugests...

Lottaa,

Good analysis and thanks for your thoughts. Your speculation about the pending sell-off coinciding with the Bitcoin hearing tomorrow sounds feasible. This is typical bubble speculation and it is interesting to watch. I think the Bitcoin market lacks the seasoned (perhaps cynical) edge that the banks and retailers would apply, so it's human emotion at its rawest. This is all hope and fear on the BTC charts now, I reckon, as people try to squeeze the last few drops out of their longs (greed) while others (like you and me!) start thinking: "I'm cashing out now before this thing tanks" (fear). I think a Sunday afternoon sell-off is even likely if we get close to $500 but there is always the thought at the back of everyone's minds: "What if it crosses $500 and accellerates?" (greed for more profit, fear of missing the trend)

As per your analysis, I think the advance on low volume is the clue: we're probably going to end up in an ending diagonal to $500. Wafer thin volume and then crash. That hearing on Monday will add spice to the pushes and pulls on price - if not the final push over the edge for this particular trend.
cryptocurrency everytime
quick post of my M5 chart... Divergence is setting in hard, but room for more IMO

http://ubuntuone.com/7E0ljtyi8E69zyL2t3M6xn
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting zusch
{quote} Impossible to "know" such a thing...very dangerous mentality for a trader.

hi zusch,

can be known and can be predicted to the pip with the right tools (EW and Fibs) but NOT EVERYTIME. Should a diagonal manifest, I will try to call the top - for fun and perhaps a feather in my cap!
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting Lottaa
{quote} I am pretty sure it will be lower than 400$ {quote} Besides comparing bitconi with tulips is like comparing apples to colors.. there were also people who said internet was not going to be a big thing. When people realize the potential then its already at the potential and you just missed it. People will keep missing the point of bitcoin until its too late.
i think that's the crux of it: IF Bitcoin becomes a widely accepted payment method then we represent the early adopters and we'll have a few when the purchase price is around $2000 each. IF NOT, we did not throw our house and Granny in the trade, so a healthy "Bit" of speculation. Never harmed anyone and besides... we are trading one of the instruments with the biggest growth ever: Bitcoin came from $0.04 to over $400 in 4 years - that's 999,900% growth for the period or 249,975% per year!

To me it does not matter if it's a tulip or a nipple-ring fad - to speculate with some spare cash is the excitement. The fact that it's a crypto-currency that has the potential to become a viable alternate payment method and store of wealth away from the prying eyes of the taxman - now that just adds gravity to engaging with Bitcoin.
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting Bruce Flea
{quote}e Not really. The internet is easy to access, and it's available to almost everyone. Bitcoins despite their value are inaccessible BECAUSE of their value. Not to mention, they are on every central banks hit list. They will likely keep climbing. Their scarcity will be a continued factor in the value increase. But when they governments find a way to get their fingers in the pie and tax and regulate them, they will crash just like tulips. The last bitcoin jump happened with the mainstream news report about the guy that had a hidden stash he...

hi Bruce,

I get your scepticism, but almost everything operates in boom and bust cycles. Bubbles have affected all asset classes from Gold to housing to tulips. BTC is not trading like a currency yet, but more like a commodity: metals, produce, energy... so like those instruments the cycles between high and low are fast... it's a case of Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. And fun - not the "ultimate" investment, but a high speed multiplier if you can trade agile and smart (and accept the associated risk)
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting Lottaa
{quote} Now internet is easy to acess and avaible to almost everyone. Before it wasn't. Still there were people not seeing it to be a big thing. {quote} You can buy 0.00000001 BTC , and more divisibility is possible if its eventually needed. {quote} Goverment taxing bitcoins is like saying goverment will be able to tax the internet somehow. And no so far its not on the central banks hit list, they don't even care about it. But when they do lets see what they will do. They can't just create bitcoins out of nothing and crash it. Or just outlaw bitcoin....
I have followed Bitcoin from it's inception. I regret not having been a miner early on, and certainly regret not plunking down $100 on it at $0.20 a pop.

However, you are exhibiting every part of a person that jumps headlong into a bubble. Assuming I don't get the "boarder" picture is patently incorrect. Also wrong is your assessment that an article didn't cause a mass buy-in. That happens all the time in markets. A blurb here or there in the most inconspicuous of places, and bam. Up goes price.

You may also THINK that Bitcoin is nebulous enough to avoid any sort of governing. That would be a dangerous place to be.

Good luck with it.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Bruce, I get your scepticism, but almost everything operates in boom and bust cycles. Bubbles have affected all asset classes from Gold to housing to tulips. BTC is not trading like a currency yet, but more like a commodity: metals, produce, energy... so like those instruments the cycles between high and low are fast... it's a case of Jack be nimble, Jack be quick. And fun - not the "ultimate" investment, but a high speed multiplier if you can trade agile and smart (and accept the associated risk)

Agree. Light on the feet is the way to be in this case.

However, with the recent volatile rise, it's just too far up the ladder for me right now. It makes no sense to chase price at the top. It may very well go another couple hundred bucks up. But with so many other ripe opportunities that play out every day in FX with much more favorable risk/reward scenarios, and much higher probability, it's silly to take the chance.

Like any other FX instrument, it will be an oscillator. Full range still to be determined.
No way I'll wreck this... It's a beer truck!
Quoting Bruce Flea
{quote} Agree. Light on the feet is the way to be in this case. However, with the recent volatile rise, it's just too far up the ladder for me right now. It makes no sense to chase price at the top. It may very well go another couple hundred bucks up. But with so many other ripe opportunities that play out every day in FX with much more favorable risk/reward scenarios, and much higher probability, it's silly to take the chance. Like any other FX instrument, it will be an oscillator. Full range still to be determined.

Agreed. Like you, I cannot see a justifiable reason to join the long stampede now. Also, I don't trust the small brokers (and their rates) who offer short CFDs so for me it's classic "buy-and-hold" only. Buying right now would be daft, as the signs of a topping process are already in evidence.

Once it drops it would be interesting to try and analyse for the bottom and get in on the next leg. I'm talking $100. The hearing tomorrow may mean the next leg up is cancelled
cryptocurrency everytime
$500 just got hit - market paused - and it's now crept over with no sign of sell orders below increasing

in fact, as i write price just ran up to $505. There's a clump of buys between 506-507 but other than that the participation is weak even for a Sunday
cryptocurrency everytime
Quoting venzen
{quote} Agreed. Like you, I cannot see a justifiable reason to join the long stampede now. Also, I don't trust the small brokers (and their rates) who offer short CFDs so for me it's classic "buy-and-hold" only. Buying right now would be daft, as the signs of a topping process are already in evidence. Once it drops it would be interesting to try and analyse for the bottom and get in on the next leg. I'm talking $100. The hearing tomorrow may mean the next leg up is cancelled

Is also my understanding of current situation. But I am biased at the moment, because when it dropped to 65 a few weeks ago, I funded my Bitcoin account with money to buy in the 45-60 USD range. Shit, I was too greedy. Now I want it to comedown.

Has someone a Bitcoin chart on logarithmic chart?

Without that it is hard to tell, if we are in a wave 3 or wave 5
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