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- nic9man replied Nov 28, 2022
Bears be careful, 1.0380-90 area could actually support strongly.
- nic9man replied Nov 23, 2022
However, it makes me a bit suspicious that retailers are massively short again. But it seems they always counteract the price movement and lose in strong trends, while they win in choppy markets.
- nic9man replied Nov 23, 2022
Aggressive short line rejected well. The narrow upwards sloping channel broke to the upside first, but collapsed back into the channel. This normally means a break to the downside has a high probability. image
- nic9man replied Nov 21, 2022
Your right that the next dotplot has a massive potential for creating vol as it is most probably marked upwards, according to Powell, however, there will be no dotplot release for the November meeting. The dotplot is part of the projection materials ...
- nic9man replied Nov 18, 2022
However, imho H4 is already bearish as the thick white line was broken and perfectly resisted five H4 retesting candles in a row.
- nic9man replied Nov 18, 2022
Oftentimes a monster combination, falling wedge marking a lower channel fake breakout (DXY).
- nic9man replied Nov 17, 2022
In my view the game is completely over for the bulls if the price closes below the next lower solid line in your chart. Because this would activate the completed rising wedge below and make it a nasty bearish beast. Especially because this one is ...
- nic9man replied Nov 17, 2022
For me this H4 closing is significant in the larger context, signalling the squeeze is over. If any daily candle closes below 1.02, we will see new lows with a high probability according to my framework.
- nic9man replied Nov 17, 2022
Retail long ratio rises quickly as the price falls, already at 44% longs now, soon they will be above 50% if the price falls further and then it can keep dropping.
- nic9man replied Nov 17, 2022
I think it could also bounce from here already, on H4 it looks deceiving. It looks like it is going down, but as soon as it fails making a lower low or a lower high it might shoot up again.
- nic9man replied Nov 17, 2022
Hm, looks like it might actually go up again. Factoring in fake break to the downside first into 1.0340 region.
- nic9man replied Nov 16, 2022
Seeing a potential rejection here