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- Aws1962 replied Dec 14, 2014
DXY techs... says it all... macro still with higher, but lots of res
- Aws1962 replied Dec 14, 2014
Just buy a 1y fwd at 27 pip below spot? 1.1990 Or maybe options space? Long 1y Risk reversal? payoff profile is attractive to me
- Aws1962 replied Dec 13, 2014
EURUSD techs... RSI/stochs rising, bullish engulfing and off large multi year trendline.
- Aws1962 replied Dec 13, 2014
very unlikely to shock... hence very little volatility... tho there is always some risk with these things we have however seen some action in jpy riskies, dropping far more than spot so far... interesting divergence
- Aws1962 replied Dec 13, 2014
GBPUSD techs, weekly looks bullish with engulfing against support areas.. stochastics crossing too
- Aws1962 replied Dec 12, 2014
EURUSD vs Terms of trade... fundamentals at its core.
- Aws1962 replied Dec 12, 2014
crazy short term vol... up 0.5% in 2 mins after dropping 2% in 30 mins.. who is long gamma out there lol?
- Aws1962 replied Dec 12, 2014
Fed seen as likely to drop considerable time next week - as per most banks... impact likely seen on short end us rates, we got 2 yr swaps dropping today (5bps) and 1y1y bigger picture heading back towards 100bps... risk of deeper USD pullback.
- Aws1962 replied Dec 12, 2014
EURUSD breaking higher, out of daily wedge. Stochastics turning upwards and relative to rates seems possible upside on further oil weakness
- Aws1962 replied Dec 12, 2014
Oil prices much much weaker, just trading with a 57 handle... US 10 years breaking lower... equities weak... HY weak... getting fun hey?
- Aws1962 replied Sep 24, 2014
as someone who writes these as my job I explain as clearly as I can. In today's market, no client trades with one bank. Hence a trade reco adds zero value to a bank (kinda). Lets say I put out a reco on a 3m EURCHF DNT, a HF client might really like ...
- Aws1962 replied Sep 24, 2014
Fun fact, Forexlive get all their information (abt banks) from me. Got some friends there who are on my mailing list. *edit, there is gonna be someone here calling bullshit, so here. have a picture.
- Aws1962 replied Sep 22, 2014
should add, we saw PBoC add 80bn US$ stimulus, but we've seen Chinese interest rates drop fast... 1Y ND IRS. A Bullish AUD factor on the margin... but frankly the bearish ones way outweigh the bullish. But I'm just relaying my traders thought.
- Aws1962 replied Sep 22, 2014
A look at the AUD... a few things, short term technicals suggest a move higher (chart is vs US yields inverted) and the AUD appears cheap. Desk bought some here (not strat team) for a fade, seems overdone. However concerned over move in copper ...
- Aws1962 replied Sep 21, 2014
To further my point, I've gone onto the DTCC database. This is a list of All the GBP/USD options trades executed and cleared last Thursday and Friday. Note the notional value, and then look at premium, in effect the premium is what is at risk for a ...
- Aws1962 replied Sep 18, 2014
What do you mean (no pun etc) exactly? Of course the market, whatever it is, has a mean. But in no way is it constant. At all. on any timeframe. Tho, in the modern FX markets, GBPUSD mean has varied between 1.75 and 1.80. More chance than anything ...
- Aws1962 replied Sep 18, 2014
One big market theme that has gone unnoticed in the past few weeks, is the huge move higher in 5 year real interest rates. (chart attached). more importantly it has moved into positive territory. A long term bullish factor for the USD, and more ...
- Aws1962 replied Sep 15, 2014
best part about USDRUB, the carry... so long as the price is under the green line when you close the trade, you make profit. In the long run, you ain't beating carry.
- Aws1962 replied Sep 14, 2014
note weakness in AUD on the open due to industrial production numbers. 0.90 big level (and according to goldman) will be attracting a lot of demand from soverign, but also Japanese buyers as the x-ccy has aided potential for foreign buyers of AUD ...
- Aws1962 replied Sep 13, 2014
oh come on please, JPM models are the most basic possible - a 10 year old could make them. Here are two that I've just quickly made. The thing with models, is that you can make them show you what you want. so here we have the EURUSD in white, vs two ...