Lostinspace, Agreed, but the probabilities are vague, and can't really be calculated in the same manner as those in Craps or Roulette. But I agree that if a method has proven profitable in the past, over a large enough sample of trades, then the ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

I challenge anybody who's posting here to actually prove anything. -- Those who aren't trading profitably (myself included) can't prove that those who have traded profitably for several years won't continue to do so. The "if I haven't been ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Thanks, Fierceman. I agree with your thoughts about statistical confidence. All I was trying to say was that those who believe that long-term profitability is luck must, when confronted with a trader who's been profitable for several years, assert ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Chris, I assume that I'm the "David" that you're replying to. The first part of your post seems to fit. If so, thanks for your reply. It's always reassuring to find somebody who feels similarly to the way that I do. I guess it's a reasonable ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Keyser, please see post #367. Note that you will have to change the news event times to align with your MT4 broker. You can re-run this process (press Esc, then Alt-F9 again), and choose the Rebuild option, to adjust the news event times back or ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Well stated, IMHO. "Unless you have a definable, measurable edge that can be duplicated over and over, and the ability to clearly articulate this method, you have nothing! Your success is based upon staistical varicance (luck) and cannot ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Fourth, nice post, IMHO. I especially like the part "the market is often just a bunch of people trying to fake out everyone else, and they are better at faking you out then you are in picking a system that bypasses it." It also reminds me ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Isn’t the crux of the matter that all analysis methods make the implicit assumption that what has happened in the past, statistically, is more likely than not to repeat itself in the future? In other words, if a candle type, chart pattern, S/R, ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

Verti, here is the opinion of a pro trader with more than 30 years experience. Of course different professionals use different approaches, so his is not necessarily the only window into 'gospel truth'. But IMHO it's a thought-provoking and ...

Can you actually live off Forex trading?

On a more serious note.......... — What happens (for example) if we take only trades that pay positive swap, and hold them long enough so that the swap exceeds the spread? Even by making random entries and exits, we have positive expectancy, a ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

For starters, by not walking blindfolded across the interstate. Anyway, I'm just surprised that we haven't had the Mark Douglas troupe here counter-arguing by saying that the 5 who made it across safely used their superior intuition to dodge the ...

Admit it - your profits are based on luck

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FFcal - Plot News indicator

NCI for USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY — Further to the previous post, here are some more daily charts. David [Edit] I just realized that, in some cases (e.g. unemployment) a falling value is better for the nation's currency. So I've got these ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

"NCI" - News composite indicator — The lower window of the EURUSD,D1 chart below was constructed using an XLS that analyzed the impact of news events since 1/1/2006. What I did was as follows: a) Compared the Actual and Previous ...

FFcal - Plot News indicator

Birdt, it's a favorite quote of mine also; it wasn't Friedman, but John Maynard Keynes. David

No Brainer Trades

Earret, I don't know if the following is what you mean by "advanced", but in this post (see "Candlestick Patterns" section), you'll find links to the best free candlestick analysis I've found thus far on the web. Hope this helps, David

Why Indicators will fail you

Thanks for the other indicators. Lagging is not necessarily bad. Enter early and the risk of a false signal is greater (results in a lower win rate). But enter late and (assuming the stoploss position is the same) lowers the R-potential of the trade ...

MTF Synery Trading - Testing purpose

My quick and dirty review (for whatever it's worth) — Dznmrd, thanks for sharing. I used your link to view the entire webinar at the CompassFX site. From what I saw, Synergy is essentially a system that rides trends following breakouts. It ...

MTF Synery Trading - Testing purpose

Polynomial regression — This "repaints" in the same way that MT4's Linear Regression redraws itself if you drag its central handle around the screen. The reason is simply that it is nothing more than a best fit polynomial regression curve. See ...

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