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- renatusmusic replied Nov 16, 2020
Interesting. I'll remain cautiously skeptical, but I am willing to be proven wrong. Risk sentiment is usually driven by macro and if you use price to show sentiment, it has only confirmed the sentiment and most likely is too late for any meaningful ...
- renatusmusic replied Oct 15, 2020
Unless you're a day trade muppet, even technicals point to a no trade to the short side (hint hint everyone here trying to go short). We've had an inverse H&S on a daily chart and haven't seen levels this low since 2014. Looking at global macro, ...
- renatusmusic replied Jun 16, 2020
Hope everyone got filled. 6500 was it for me, and I've just reduced risk before I f off on holiday. Won't touch until my broker gives me a call it's broken 6300; should happen in the next couple of weeks.
- renatusmusic replied Jun 11, 2020
Nah. This thing is toast. I'm even lowering my price to be willing to sell at 630 from 655. I won't even think about buying back until around the 616ish. Should get there in a couple of weeks. Of course, this means f all if I don't get my price lol.
- renatusmusic replied Jun 11, 2020
Willing to sell to muppets at anything higher than 655
- renatusmusic replied Jun 11, 2020
Okay, the onslaught has started. Short, short, short.
- renatusmusic replied Jun 10, 2020
Interesting world view. My view is that COVID is such a temp factor, long term, we should be looking to see the delta between pre and post COVID and assume going "back to normal", and catching all the correction moves (risk pre determined, and you ...
- renatusmusic replied Jun 9, 2020
I don't think safe haven is long term. There's a distinct conflict of interest in the article, and the dump in the USD (and stocking up on NZD) is more likely than not, a temp move by leveraged money to make a quick buck. This is my second week now ...
- renatusmusic replied Jun 1, 2020
Woah woah... Buying *back*, i.e. covering shorts at the points I feel a pair reaches it's real value. I would only buy the short (in the case of buying back at the real value) if I thought the pair was overpriced. Just double checking. Buying ...
- renatusmusic replied May 31, 2020
Interesting you think that giving retail muppets one of the worst possible advice is a "constructive comment". You go on consuming nonsense from Bloomberg and Reuters that only report fundamentals after the fact. My job is to work ...
- renatusmusic replied May 31, 2020
Fortunately for me, I don’t have the burden of proof to prove anything. Mostly because like I’ve already said, I’ve not outlined a system, but a principle. Depending on what you let shape your worldview, the result will differ drastically. I have a ...
- renatusmusic replied May 31, 2020
Last week, I believe the fundamentals showed NZDUSD to be short. However, the pair rallied, which I believe is an artificial move. So I wait to either; 1. Be shown that I was wrong, in which case I never enter (if the long continues), or 2. Price ...
- renatusmusic replied May 31, 2020
Obviously, this approach requires a pretty solid understanding of how to gauge direction of an asset correctly. You need to have a list of criteria that you believe moves an asset. To get everyone started, Real Interest Rate, Inflation/GDP%of ...
- renatusmusic replied May 24, 2020
Agreed. What price are you thinking of getting in? I'm thinking 968 looks like a pretty good price; don't know if it'll get any cheaper than that...
- renatusmusic replied May 13, 2020
I said quite clearly last Thursday this was a pain trade going late into this week or maybe even later. No idea why I p*ssied out of the trade then. Need to grow a bigger pair, I guess.
- renatusmusic replied May 12, 2020
Nah, I went to bed with a breakeven stop and woke up with a SL notification. Could have been worse I guess...
- renatusmusic replied May 11, 2020
Looks like those spec buyers have f'd off (for now). And with China screwed, bring on 637!
- renatusmusic replied May 11, 2020
Yup - got in at 65 though so still holding on until at least a 1:1. I won’t lie to you though, I was thoroughly sh*tting myself Friday and yesterday....
- renatusmusic replied May 10, 2020
Are you sure that’s not because of liquidity movement? If the SPX drops, it means that people have taken out USD from their equity positions, i.e. equity -> cash movement. If more people have USD, then the DXY value goes up, sending the AUDUSD down. ...
- renatusmusic replied May 8, 2020
I would say have faith. Yes, shorts have unloaded overall, but where from? It's from "large spec", who are "fast money". In an environment like this, they probably don't hold positions more than a couple of days, which means that the positions from ...