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- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 28, 2014
yes, lower EUR, even below parity, could help as long as inflation risk contained.
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 28, 2014
If EU stress tests are rigorous and honest, there should be some turmoil following the October 17th release of results, as EU bank union pact leaves nations on their own for a number of years until some of common funds built up, though ECB will do ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 28, 2014
problem is EU has responded to each crisis with temporary solutions rather than serious attempts to fix the problem, killing off the crisis before any real reforms take root. One attempt at real reform was the banking union deal. It is a bad pact, ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 28, 2014
While Hugh's article covered Italy, Spain's situation not materially different, and Trouble expected from bank stress tests
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 24, 2014
in any case, momentum on weekly charts is so bearish that it's hard to take daily gyrations seriously, as any bounce likely to be short lived, and fundamentals aren't likely to help as ECB begins TLTROs, data EU data continues to reek, and Scottish ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 10, 2014
GU? ie....?
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 10, 2014
suspect once risk aversion eases that alone cuts demand for US treasuries and USD and the said correlation resumes.
- Cliff Wachtel commented Aug 10, 2014
USD usually falls if benchmark US rates fall because falling rates mean USD and USD denominated assets pay less (in general) and so traders anticipate falling USD demand and sell USD. However if rates falling due to rising demand for US treasuries ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 20, 2014
as covered in depth here: url and in articles linked to it, EU has no functioning bank union, certainly nothing that could provide actual assistance to Portugal for years to come. Markets are calm because after years of ad hoc last minute ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jul 20, 2014
not necessarily. Fed has been working diligently to convince markets that rates are to remain low, and has tools to keep them low
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 15, 2014
suspect we at least get a test of 1.35 soon. As for a break below timing harder to call though it's more likely than a recovery given medium term momentum damage. Markets awaiting new fundamentals to shift sentiment, none coming this week, which ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 15, 2014
yup, if it's making a real move lower (for those trading on more than very short term time frames) that area is the next big one for reasons discussed in article - beyond the fact that it's a big psychologically important round #
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 15, 2014
stock indexes (including S&P) appeared to be responding to Thursday BoE hint of sooner tightening (only major news that day) though media also noted concern about oil prices due to Iraq turmoil EURUSD move came early in week, no major news, was ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 8, 2014
Further thoughts: one of my usual "wish I'd written that" ideas that hit only after publication: key point is that ECB/EU stimulus packages can only buy time They can't compensate for lack of political will, specifically a willingness to cede true ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented Jun 8, 2014
many. see here for guidelines url , see here url for more details regarding the EURUSD, as noted in article, odds favor a bounce on both technical and fundy bases, though caution about committing too much yet as markets still figuring this out ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented May 25, 2014
really. that's why I spent so much of my book writing about risk management and the importance of only taking trades where risk/reward is better than 2:1, most of us need to be able to profit while being wrong on majority of trades
- Cliff Wachtel commented May 25, 2014
yes. lower rates are bearish for a currency, but if (and that's the question) ECB determined to have lower rates than USD, then lower USD rates mean even more EUR weakness. Ironically, USD could be rising at a time when its rates are falling (if EUR ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented May 25, 2014
a few things, here are just some of them: --temptation to test lower support levels noted in the article --ECB may surprise markets with 'shock and awe' approach rather than the expected incremental cuts of rates that are already near zero, and ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented May 19, 2014
What do you mean by "big banks agitation"? curious, 'cause rest of comment was really good. Re: fading the FF sample traders, they do indeed reflect a common retail trader error I've seen repeatedly when I worked for different brokerages as chief ...
- Cliff Wachtel commented May 19, 2014
LOL, not only is crisis not over, the reasons FT.com cited for market calm haven't even happened! I've a whole discussion on that here: url