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- ForexFart replied Apr 27, 2016
For what it's worth, I was curious whether looking back 1 month, 6 months or 6 years for support and resistance made any difference. As someone who focusses on statistical analysis I put it to the test. I found no "big" difference between S/R levels ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 24, 2016
Everything in forex (in life as well??) is always far more complex that we think. Simple concepts like risk:reward are never that simple in this game and it's crazy how it can't really be explained to someone easily... because there's so many ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 24, 2016
If there's a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 4 on a dice, but over 12 rolls, the 4 only came up once, you can't say, "well, I rolled it 12 times and the theory says that a 4 should have come up twice, but it only came up once. Therefore I'm pretty ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 23, 2016
The only way to avoid a losing STREAK, is to never have losing trades. If your win rate is 99%, at some point (and it can be calculated), you will have a losing streak.
- ForexFart replied Apr 23, 2016
There's two different equations for consideration here. One, is "how many losses at 7% loss can I withstand?" And you are right (sort of) in that if you lost 8 in a row, that would be a loss of 56% of your account (7% x 8 = 56%, assuming the 7% is ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 22, 2016
Ah... my apologies. If you're referring to timos' comment that "Trend lines are are an illusion" and my comments listing other "illusions"... I think timos actually believes that trend lines are pointless, and that's fine... he must use some other ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 22, 2016
I'm a rookie. It's just that you're asking "what analysis do I do before entering the market". Babypips is awesome as it has hours and hours of information to answer that question. I don't even know where to start answering such a broad question ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 22, 2016
Who said the trend isn't your friend? And asking "on what do you base your investments" is basically asking, "how do I trade" which is a very broad question.
- ForexFart replied Apr 21, 2016
If you want to say to say after the fact, "that was the start of the trend, and that was the end of the trend", then drawing lines on charts is a good way to do it. Higher high and higher lows = an uptrend, but as mentioned above... you only know ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 16, 2016
There is no "hope"; it's simple statistical probability. Your myFXBook profile says you lose 76% of the time. Given that win / loss ratio, it's a statistical certainty that in the course of 50 trades, you have a 79% chance of having a losing streak ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 16, 2016
Be careful not to think, "8 losses in a row will happen so rarely!"... Your losing percentage is 76%. Over 100 trades, the risk of getting a losing streak of 8 trades in a row is 96% Even over 50 trades, the risk of 8 losses in a row is 79%
- ForexFart replied Apr 14, 2016
Well, I can't just rescale that easily. Ticks don't have a timescale. There might be double the amount of ticks in 1 minute but the same amount of ticks in another. So I divided the global prime image up into 10 seconds and rescaled each section ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 14, 2016
Global Prime - 4 times as many ticks as... FXCM (standard account)
- ForexFart replied Apr 14, 2016
Attached are the two charts presented earlier (comparing bid and ask between two brokers), but scaled to the same number of ticks and overlaid on each other. Actually the bid does vary as well which perhaps doesn't mean spread adjustment is ONLY the ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 14, 2016
Oh, I absolutely agree it's worth looking into the data. It's just a shame that the delineation between spread adjustment and ask (buy) volume is completely unknown.
- ForexFart replied Apr 14, 2016
welcome back. My biggest problem with saying ask up = buy and bid down = sell is there's always more ask movement that bid (and therefore more buying volume than selling volume) because of spread adjustments (which in my opinion affect the ask, ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 10, 2016
I'm not sure I agree. We know spreads can widen hugely before news, Mondays, etc. But if you overlay two charts from two different brokers, the charts are 99.9% identical. The differences in spread are all (mostly?) in the Ask price going up and ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 4, 2016
Yes, I understand what you are saying, but what about this follow-up question... If there's more than 1 "volume" in a price "tick" (whether the price moves or not is irrelevant), then should we say that is "lots of price changes that were "bundled" ...
- ForexFart replied Apr 3, 2016
ok, I used an example that caused cconfusion. Let me ask again... So, are you saying that if the volume is 30 or 50 or whatever (more than 1) within a single tick, that's x price changes put together in the one "packet" of ticks ?