Bullock: Australian inflation is largely in line with forecasts

I’d like to begin by acknowledging the Traditional Custodians of the land on which we meet and pay my respects to Elders past and present. I extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people joining us today. It’s a privilege to be with you again for the Anika Foundation fundraising lunch, my third year joining as Governor. The Foundation’s commitment to advancing youth mental health is making a lasting difference in the lives of young Australians and their families. A defining and recurring feature of the global economy in recent years has been the increasing frequency and impact of supply shocks. First, there was the shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Then the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to an energy price spike. As some of the disruptions associated with these earlier adverse shocks began to recede, new risks have emerged. The conflict in the Middle East is disrupting energy markets, severe weather events have affected production and trade around the world, and continuing trade tensions add further ambiguity. The outlook can change quickly, and uncertainty can re-emerge even as earlier risks begin to ease. Today, I will discuss how recent global developments are affecting Australia and place them in historical context by looking back to the oil shocks of the 1970s. The world has been more shock-prone in recent years, but the economy is more resilient than it was in the past. The adoption of credible inflation targets by central banks – to keep inflation low and stable – has played a key role in our improved resilience. This doesn’t mean we’re immune from adverse supply shocks. They can constrain growth, reduce real incomes and add to inflationary pressures. In this environment, our job is to keep inflation expectations anchored and make sure that shocks don’t lead to lasting increases in inflation. With inflation and capacity pressures already elevated, recent shocks have added further to the inflation impulse. That is why we tightened monetary policy earlier this year and why we remain focused on returning inflation sustainably to target. How is the Australian economy faring RBA Governor Bullock: Previous rate hikes are still working through the economy, and their full effects have not yet emerged. RBA Governor Bullock: Keeping inflation low and stable remains the most important contribution monetary policy can provide.

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