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Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB
Ms Schnabel started her presentation by noting that, since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 29-30 April 2026, euro area financial markets had been torn between two competing developments: the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had reinforced expectations that oil prices would remain higher for longer, despite markedly lower near-term oil prices. Inflation fixings had declined from their high April readings but continued to hover above 3% for 2026 and above 2% for 2027. In ... (full story)
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ECB ACOUNTS: HEADLINE INFLATION WAS SET TO RISE FURTHER OVER THE SUMMER AND REMAIN WELL ABOVE TARGET INTO THE FIRST HALF OF 2027, DESPITE ALMOST THREE 25 BASIS POINT INTEREST RATE HIKES BEING EMBEDDED IN THE PROJECTIONS
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 9, 2026
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ECB ACOUNTS: ALL MEMBERS VIEWED THE RISKS SURROUNDING THE INFLATION OUTLOOK AS BEING TO THE UPSIDE RELATIVE TO THE STAFF BASELINE PROJECTIONS
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 9, 2026
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ECB ACOUNTS: IF ENERGY PRICES DID NOT DECLINE AS IMPLIED BY THE FUTURES CURVES, ABOVE-TARGET INFLATION WAS LIKELY TO PROVE CONSIDERABLY MORE PERSISTENT
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 9, 2026
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ECB ACOUNTS: MORE ATTENTION WAS LIKELY TO BE PAID TO PRICE RISES NOW THAN AT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ENERGY SHOCK, AND THIS COULD MEAN THAT FIRMS AND WORKERS MIGHT REACT MORE QUICKLY ON THIS OCCASION.
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 9, 2026
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