RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate 25 basis points to 2.50% with external and internal Monetary Policy Committee members reaching consensus

The Monetary Policy Committee today reached consensus to increase the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent. Following the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have fallen markedly. Other petrochemical prices have also moved lower. As a result, near-term inflation pressures have eased. Although energy prices have decreased, the effects of the shock will linger for some time and the outlook for medium-term inflation pressures remains uncertain. The stance of monetary policy is calibrated to bring inflation back to target without causing unnecessary economic instability. Global growth has been resilient to the effects of tariffs and conflict in the Middle East, largely because of strong AI-related investment and spending on defence and economic security. Headline inflation in New Zealand’s trading partners has increased but is expected to ease to close to 2 percent in 2027. Markets expect global policy rates to increase above pre-conflict levels, as central banks may need to respond to persistent energy-driven inflation pressures. New Zealand’s economic recovery was underway before the Middle East conflict, but lost momentum in the June quarter as the oil shock weighed on economic activity. Growth is expected to resume in the September quarter as these effects fade and confidence improves. Over the medium term, inflation returning to the 2 percent target mid-point will lift household purchasing power and help support a sustained recovery in growth and employment. The outlook for medium-term inflation pressures depends on the extent to which recent cost increases feed through into higher prices. Spare capacity in the economy is expected to limit firms’ ability to pass on higher costs, meaning many businesses may need to absorb them in margins. However, some firms may look to rebuild margins as demand recovers. If sustained, a lower exchange rate could also add to medium-term inflation pressures. With inflation still above target and economic activity expected to strengthen, some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required to return inflation to the 2 percent target mid-point. Future OCR decisions will depend on how incoming data, price-setting behaviour, and the strength of economic activity affect medium-term inflation pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to raise the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. • Ongoing effects from the Middle East conflict will keep inflation elevated in the near term. • A drop in global oil prices has lowered costs and is supporting economic… pic.twitter.com/K2wp59XwE3 Just in | RBNZ Minutes Confirm Continued Accommodative Stance on Current OCR Level

*US IS REVOKING IRAN-RELATED GENERAL LICENSE TO EXPORT OIL *IRAN'S ACTIONS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WHOLLY UNACCEPTABLE: OFFICIAL Revocation and Wind Down of June 21, 2026 Authorization for the Production, Delivery and Sale of Crude Oil Products of Iranian Origin Effective July 7, 2026, General License X, dated June 21, 2026, is revoked and superseded in its entirety by General License X1. Except as provided in paragraph, all transactions prohibited by the above-listed authorities that are ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X are authorized through 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time, July 17, 2026, provided that any payment to a blocked person must be made into a blocked, interest-bearing account located in the United States. Note to paragraph (b). Except to the extent ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of transactions previously authorized by General License X for the production, sale, delivery, or offloading of crude oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products of Iranian origin, paragraph (b) does not authorize any new transactions, including purchases or loading of such products on or after July 7, 2026.

June nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000 against a consensus of 115,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% from 4.3%.¹ The two-year Treasury yield dropped more than five basis points on the release, and bitcoin rebounded off its cycle low near $57,000, in line with the shift in rate expectations. The reaction underscores that bitcoin remains highly ...