US and Iran agree to halt strikes and meet this week – Axios

Ha. I was going to say something similar in my post. Yours ended up being funnier, so I am glad I didn't

Then why should it be red?
All the talks have done since this war started, is lead to false hope of a lasting peace.

I cite the major "Deal Is Done" quote from Donald over the weekend of the 13-14th June as just 1 exhibit.

Since then, USD has broken resistance and gone north of it's 12 month range, we've made a new wartime GU low and opened it's last 2 weeks below the major weekly trendline from 2022.

And the fighting has continued.

But the "Deal is done".

Right

Well, to be fair, the only way it "works" again and again and again is if people believe his comments....or believe that others will believe his comments.

This is exactly what the markets are supposed to "figure out" and then discount quickly because they are "so efficient". And, if you believe that...........

Very well stated. It takes years (decades) for some to learn that lesson. Most don't last that long.

The challenge is not getting caught up in the moment and then going on tilt. I've been there....we all have. But the US (most of the US) wants this war done. Even those who originally wanted it to commence are feeling/are going to start feeling immense political pressure to wrap it up. The problem is, unlike with tariffs, you can't just "put a pause" on a war. The other side may not be willing to cooperate.

Need an example: who would have thought there'd be a 400 pt rally followed by an "A" top and a 300 pt (in progress) drop off to start the evening? The rally would have been assumed/attributed to the "news". I wouldn't have thought so big, but so be it. The drop, however? A small pullback after such a rally, sure. But 3/4 the move? Not sure many would expect that.

Now, most don't trade the 1/5/15 min charts. That's a tough business. I do, but it is NOT recommended; far too much time in front of a screen attempting to decipher why the heck moves like tonight's (or the complete reversals of 900 pts into/after MU earnings, etc) happen so fast. If there's a narrative, shouldn't it be persistent? Why is it reversed in 1/2/12 hours? .....it all goes back to your comment about guessing the outcome being a losing game.

Price action drives all. 20 years from now, some fresh trader will look at charts and not even know about COVID or Tariffs>Liberation Day and say "ah, yeah, those moves make sense technically...over-extensions retraced and bounced off some support levels".