The Global Week Ahead: Is This One For Real?

From scotiabank.com

Even though it moderated over the back half of this past week, is this bond selloff for real with much further to sustainably run? Or is it a tactical buying opportunity for fixed income investors? The US ten-year Treasury yield has indeed risen by roughly 60bps over about the past three months with about 25–30 bps of that very recently. In the grand history of bond selloffs, this one’s a 98-pound weakling. The nominal US 10-year yield is still within the broad trading range that has been in place since 2023 (chart 1). We’ve seen peaks in US 10-year yields like today’s earlier last year, in 2024 and in 2023. ... (full story)