Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: We cannot necessarily say that we have reached a point where an agreement is close - Tasnim

nope

I'm with you there. And I've been sucking wind trying to short this equity move. But I have a serious question to ask, and am asking myself as much as anyone: How many "headlines" have occurred since yesterday? Two days ago? March 30th? March 1? Where were markets then? Where are they now?

Why is it that the markets are MUCH higher despite all this news? What news could come that would erase such a move? Not a 1-3% drop, but a 20-30% drop. Do we really see that on the horizon?

We (I) complain about all the crazy news, but the reality is, so long as you get in (without leverage) and STAY LONG US equities, you haven't lost money. Ever. Even after 40% or 80% down turns, if you can sustain the time frame, you're much better off today.

Where you get screwed (speaking from experience) is trying to "beat" the market via leverage and entering at the wrong time. Or, trying to call tops with leverage and being wrong. Yes, it can be done, but let no one tell you it's not hard work, and, if levered, stressful work at that!

Markets were overextended May 1. Now, look how aggressively they have run this month. Surprising? Yes. Unrealistic? I think so, after April anyway. But, factual. So continually supported price action tells me that I'm wrong. My opinion may be correct in a day/week/month, but right now? Nope.

Now, I don't know if this is a bubble. I don't think it is (yet). I don't know if it is overextended either. I THOUGHT it was overextended by 5-10% after the 30% /nq up move off the ceasefire lows, but the markets continue to tell me I'm wrong as the /nq pullback was only 3.75% from prior highs.

What I do believe is, at some point in the next 5-10 years, markets will be higher than they are now. The question: can I scalp enough between now and then to make more than simply being long /nq contracts. I've done so in the past, and I'd like to think so for the future, but it's a hard reality to face each day when benchmarking yourself against "if I just bought and held since 1/1/2026, where would I be today vs where I am"? "Has it been worth my time?"

New traders can benchmark themselves against that: but you have to be honest with yourself when doing so. If you just bought and held $xxx in /nq or /es, would your account balance be higher today than when you started? The trick, as always, is capital allocation/management. You can't have a $20k account, 1 /es contract, and think you're going to be fine no matter your entry. However, if your entry is timed such that your capital allocation can sustain a sizable (25%?) market drawdown, it's very likely that in 1, 2, 5 years, you'll be better off (especially if you are able to add to your position size after that 20-25% down move)

Here's hoping we roll over into the weekend and see some actual retracement next week......but I (bitterly) don't really see that happening, does anyone?

Best of luck to everyone out there in these crazy times. And remember, all the headlines today and the /es is still up 0.54% and the /nq 0.75%

We sure did

watch it

It's not a double negative...what's the issue in understanding this. One side wants nuclear dust and end to all enrichment and the other is still wanting to fight it out

Your observations is highly practical and spot on.

Fingers crossed. I hope it makes Trump real real mad. would love to see some of these regime's terrorist be sent into the bosoms of their 72 virgins.

Markets closed on Monday in the US as well, so liquidity would cause a free-for-all on Sunday night for futures (with only Asia and EU normal sessions trading). We shall see. 72 hours is a long time to negotiate. I'm hoping for a move down in equities to continue a consolidation before a move higher so that we have a little more base....BUT, I don't want that to come at the loss of life/re-start of war.

no

Obviously

totally agree. the mirage of the 'deal' is crumbling by the minute.

not false

True my ass they also a pig that need to eat shite

sure, sure

Not anymore to be honest, both are not pigs

freakin fishy, reads very bearish for silver and gold, bullish for oil

you're welcome

eat gold

it is

Me too

why think opposite? low oil, lower gas prices, good for consumers. good for markets.

And now?

just buy that shit why are you want to sell hun? just buy every low which is forming

brooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

as long the markets move trading works bro

12

watch

because the deal is happening

US fanny, or UK fanny?