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Bitcoin: No Catalyst, No Range Break
To place the overhead supply overhang in a precise quantitative context, the Total Supply in Loss metric counts the volume of circulating Bitcoin last moved at a price above the current spot level. Applying a 30-day SMA to smooth short-term noise, this indicator currently registers approximately 8.4M BTC, meaning roughly 8M to 9M coins have remained underwater on a sustained basis over the past month. The magnitude of this figure, combined with spot price trading near the current cycle mid-line, implies a structural resemblance to conditions observed in Q2 2022. Historically, resolving a supply overhang of this scale ... (full story)
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