Fed's Musalem: Could support rate hike if inflation worsens

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Good morning. I would like to thank the American Enterprise Institute for the invitation to speak with you today, and I look forward to an engaging discussion with Michael Strain.1 The AEI is dedicated to advancing free markets and improving lives, for example, by focusing on growth, jobs and inflation. AEI scholars have emphasized the importance of basing monetary policy decisions on economic facts and data—rather than the political needs of the moment. That is the cornerstone of central bank independence. History has shown that countries with independent central banks have better outcomes in terms of stronger economic growth and low and stable inflation. With independence comes an obligation for accountability and transparency. That is why my Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) colleagues and I are constantly engaging with stakeholders, why we are transparent about the factors that go into our decision-making, and why I am here today to share my views. These are my personal views and not necessarily those of other FOMC participants. The economic outlook is highly uncertain. A baseline scenario for 2026 has real GDP growing close to potential, the unemployment rate holding around its current level, and core inflation beginning to gradually ease toward 2% later in the year. But other outcomes are plausible. The risks to the labor market and inflation both tilt in unfavorable directions, that is, toward a weaker labor market and greater ST LOUIS FED'S MUSALEM Q&A/AEI: ECON PICTURE 'HIGHY UNCERTAIN;' REPEATS, POLICY 'WELL POSITIONED;' WATCHNG CLOSELY #Musalem #FederalReserve #economy FED'S MUSALEM SAYS MONETARY POLICY IS AT THE LOW SIDE OF THE NEUTRAL RANGE. Fed's Musalem: Holding rates is likely appropriate for some time Fed's Musalem: Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in the current environment

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. ...